Global Outlook For New Cotton Output Remains Uncertain

According to foreign institutions, by the end of July,

Futures seem to have temporarily stopped falling, and the fund's participation has been somewhat lower, but it has not completely abandoned cotton.

The latest figures show that the fund has a net bull position of 1 million 790 thousand bales, far below its 12 million 300 thousand package in February last year.

However, the recent commercial buying offers a solid support for cotton prices at 66 cents.

Fundamentally speaking, demand is still very optimistic. Chen cotton has basically sold out. Short term demand for cotton must be met by new cotton.

At present, the export of US cotton is still very active, and the export volume of the new year has exceeded 5 million packs, which has more than doubled compared with the same period last year.

China's reserve cotton auction is progressing smoothly. Up to now, the total turnover has exceeded 2 million tons, and the contract for us cotton has remained active.

Rumor has it that the sale of cotton reserves may extend for a month to the end of September.

In the long run, this is a good thing, indicating that China's demand is good, and the stock of reserve cotton will further decline.

From the supply side, the world

The outlook for output is still uncertain. It is still difficult to rush cotton prices up to 70 cents. In recent weeks, although the growth of new cotton in most parts of the United States has improved, the total output of more than 19 million packages should be impossible.

The abandoned farmland in western Texas has exceeded the market expectations.

Moreover, the new cotton which sowed late and the root system was not growing well depended heavily on rainfall and a longer frost free period. The harvest in southern Texas has now reached a climax. The yield per unit area is ideal, but most of them have been sold ahead of schedule.

In the coming months, the growth trend of new cotton will directly affect the market trend. The market needs to pay close attention to the US Department of agriculture's August production and demand forecast, which will be a more accurate output data based on field production.

It is more than a month away from the new cotton market in 2017/18.

Hubei Baiyin cotton industry information center has learned from many cotton processing enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and other places that factories have begun to prepare for the acquisition of new cotton, and the acquisition of new cotton is expected to start in early September.

A head of a cotton processing enterprise in Cangzhou, Hebei revealed that in order to deal with the acquisition of new cotton this year, several processing plants in the plant have begun to overhaul and update the machinery and equipment, and at the same time embark on the recruitment and distribution of related personnel.

The responsible person said that this year intends to carry out the acquisition work around September 10th, the acquisition range is mainly in the cotton production area in the local and surrounding areas.

As for the price expectation, cotton production will increase this year because cotton growth is better than last year, and cotton purchase price may be slightly lower than last year.

Because

The news of the lengthening of the rotation time, the enterprises cool down and store, with the use of buying, the paction rate and the average paction price were significantly lower than the previous week. Last week, the average price of Xinjiang cotton was 15392 yuan / ton, and the average price of real estate cotton was 14108 yuan / ton. The average price of Xinjiang cotton fell sharply this week, or over 600 yuan / ton.

The recent dumping and storage time extended to the end of September and an increase of 410 thousand tons of Xinjiang cotton inspection volume were two bad news for the market. The average paction price and turnover rate of cotton reserves fell sharply, which directly reflected the spot trend of the market.

However, after the bad news came to an end, the market continued to fall sharply.

Other companies said they were prepared to buy in the field in addition to preparing for local acquisitions in early September.

The acquisition method is not limited to its own acquisition, it will also consider other companies to collect.

Overall, ICE futures are expected to hit slightly above 70 cents before the new cotton harvest. Many people believe that the rise of more than 200 points in the previous week has opened up a prelude to the rise. It also depends on whether the fund's bulls are responding positively. The real rise is dependent on the fund's bulls. In turn, fund selling is also the main driving force for cotton prices to fall behind.

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