Why Does The US Impose Trade Sanctions On China'S Exports, Deliberately Lowering The Exchange Rate?

In August 1st, an official of the Trump administration said that Trump was close to making decisions to take measures against unfair trade practices in China to force the Chinese government to crack down on intellectual property theft and to relax the requirement that American companies must share advanced technology to enter the Chinese market.

Moreover, these measures will be announced as early as this week.

In my view, this is not surprising, because we have no reason to believe at any time that the US government will adopt an economic policy of "equality and mutual benefit" to China.

But we need to review ourselves, why China's response to many economic policies in the United States appears very passive. I think two questions: first, we always try to reason with the United States, but what the United States knows is that it is "sleeping" for its own huge benefits. How can you wake it up? Second, in the Sino US relations, a small bargaining and moderate compromise can be done, but don't assume that their appetite will be full. Don't think that the United States will abandon the "insatiable" nature because of our compromise.

They are not even as good as wolves.

The wolf will not continue to hunt when he is full, but the hunger in the United States is always a bottomless pit.

First, what is the future of US economic development? It must be to expand the volume of the real economy. At least in Trump's term, this is the main direction.

Why? Because a country has a low proportion of the real economy, and the service industry, especially the financial services industry, accounts for a high proportion. The benefits brought by the financial industry are far less than the disadvantages it brings. This is an important lesson from the financial crisis to the world.

People see that the United States has the deepest financial strength and the highest monetary strength, and the ability to absorb financial shocks is unique. However, there will still be a financial crisis and spread all over the world. Why is this? Just because of this lesson, the GDP of manufacturing industry accounts for only 12% of the United States must expand manufacturing industry.

My judgment is that they need at least 25% of the manufacturing sector to recover, so as to ensure the stability of the US economy in the future.

In fact, the US economy is also growing because of the efforts of "re industrialization".

Although we can't get the data of manufacturing industry in the United States, after Trump came to power, the US ISM

The index continued to rise, from the end of last year to 53.8, the highest level in more than a year, and it was the dividing line between 50 and four consecutive months.

This reflects the rapid recovery of the US manufacturing sector.

In addition, we can see that all the foreign manufacturing enterprises that decided to invest in the US have been interviewed by Trump. Ma Yun, Sun Zhengyi, Terry Gou and so on are all the same. What does this mean? No need for me to explain more.

We will have basic judgement if we understand this basic road.

For example, if Trump wants to expand the manufacturing industry in the United States, it will be obstructed by the "financial ruling world" forces in China.

In fact, all the troubles in Trump's home are the forces of this opposition.

Because they do not want to see the government putting large resources into "re industrialization", and do not want the manufacturing industry to weaken the strong position of the US financial consortium.

Now that we can not move to Trump, we must restrict the president's power. Now, that's the case.

The infrastructure plan for the campaign promises has not yet come out. Whether the health care reform plan has been approved or not, and the diplomatic power of Russia has been restricted by Congress.

In my view, it is closely related to the blocking of Trump's expansion of manufacturing industry.

Trump's power in the country is limited, so he can only expand the external influence in various ways, so he will start all possible measures to force other enterprises to invest in the US.

What way? Trade barriers.

Many Chinese people are unaware of the fact. They shout the Sino US trade war and think that the depreciation of the US dollar and the increase of trade tariffs with China are "trade wars".

As we all know,

It is complementary. There is no question of who will squeeze out the international market and replace it.

Why should the US deliberately lower the exchange rate and impose trade sanctions on China's exports?

First, the depreciation of the US dollar reflects the easing of US domestic money.

Some people say that the Fed's interest rate rises and how to reduce the scale are loose? Should it be deflation? I say, you do not understand the relativity of monetary policy at all.

Yes, the US dollar is raising interest rates, and the Fed is shrinking. That is because the US monetary multiplier is only 2.98 times, too low, expanding it to 4 times and 5.3 times that of China.

Therefore, the Fed's interest rate hike and the increase in the monetary multiplier will not only hurt the liquidity of the US dollar, but may even increase the liquidity of the US dollar.

Moreover, the Fed increases interest rates and shrinks moves carefully, and outflows enough time for financial institutions to allow them to adjust their money multipliers to hedge against the effect of increasing interest rates and shrinking currencies.

This is also the key to Yellen's repeated emphasis on "the Federal Reserve's monetary easing position".

Second, enhancing the role of trade barriers is not a "trade war", but rather a "trade war".

"It is forcing countries such as China, which are mainly manufacturing industries and manufacturing capital, to bypass American trade barriers and invest directly in the US.

In fact, this is a warning.

In the course of Japan's appreciation of the yen, the United States built up trade barriers, and the 301 clause specifically directed against Japan, forcing Japanese enterprises to pfer large scale industries, and directly investing in competitive automobiles and other industries to the United States.

So this is nothing new but a trick.

The relevant departments in China should organize well to learn about this history.

Based on the above understanding, I am opposed to the effect of RMB's internal revaluation on the external appreciation, because such a way can not achieve China's interests at all, but aggravate the living environment of China's domestic real economy and force domestic enterprises to invest in the US.

So I doubt that those who clamour for China's central bank to release water and then compel it to tighten up will do more to meet the interests of the United States and undermine China's interests.

Central bank counselor Sheng Songcheng statistics, the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded 4.5 times, and China expanded 2 times.

At least, this shows that China does not exist much more than the United States.

Meanwhile, China's nominal GDP increased from 31 trillion yuan in 2008 to 70 trillion yuan in 2016, more than doubled, while the US GDP grew by only 30% during the same period.

We can not therefore think that China's currency efficiency is higher, but at least we can think that China has not "crazy money printing".

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