Zheng Cotton Price Weakness Running, Spot Continued To Decline

< p > domestic trend: 9, Zheng cotton 1501 contract oscillation declined, opened at 16225 yuan / ton, closing at 16075 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day fell 80 yuan / ton, turnover volume shrank sharply, increased 878 positions to 121700 hands.

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< p > external trend: ICE index < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton contract < /a > rising on Tuesday, bringing back a partial decline in the previous day, because the purchase before the US government announced monthly supply and demand offset the pressure brought by the index base extension.

Index ICE-5 cotton contract rose 1.17 cents, or 1.3%, at 91.79 cents a pound.

It is widely expected that the US Department of agriculture (USDA) will reduce cotton inventories for the year July as predicted in July, because US cotton production is expected to be lower than expected.

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< p > < strong > message: < /strong > /p >

< p > 1. According to the request of the 2014 central 1 document on starting the pilot of the price reform of Xinjiang < a href= '//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > cotton < /a >, in April 5th, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of agriculture jointly issued the target price of cotton for 2014, which was 19 thousand and 800 yuan per ton.

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< p > 2, the state temporary purchase and storage has ended. < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Hebei < /a > Hengshui cotton acquisition processing enterprise acquisition and processing work has all stopped.

As the local cotton percentage is lower than that of 1-2% in the whole year, the linen percentage of individual cotton affected areas is only about 33%. Some enterprises have admitted that the storage profit has decreased compared with the previous year, and some enterprises have indicated that they may withdraw from the cotton market.

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< p > spot: cotton index 3128B price is 18668 yuan / ton, down 289 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

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< p > conclusion: the US cotton price range oscillates under the long and short stalemate, and domestic cotton spot prices continue to weaken, which has a negative impact on the cotton price.

Technically, Zheng cotton 1501 contracts are weak, short or weak.

On the operation, short selling is short.

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< p > related links: < /p >

< p > cotton textile enterprises are in poor demand.

Under the influence of the financial crisis and the aftermath of the European debt crisis, the international economic environment is still not optimistic. Coupled with the domestic economic slowdown and inflation pressure, the overall growth of supply and demand in the textile industry is unlikely to increase significantly.

The purchasing cost of cotton is high and the gross profit margin of the industry has been diluted. The textile enterprises, especially the small and medium-sized enterprises, have generally low operating rates.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the number of loss making enterprises in the textile industry in December 2013 was 2203, and the loss making enterprises accounted for 10.6% of the total number of enterprises in the textile industry, and the overall efficiency of the industry has not been significantly improved.

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The cotton import volume in 2013 P was 27 million tons, which was 39% lower than that in 2012.

The main reason for the sharp decline in cotton imports is that since 2011, the state has implemented strict import quota control for the purchase and storage policy, and has asked textile enterprises to tie up national cotton reserves in proportion to 1:3 when importing cotton.

To avoid circumvention of import quotas, cotton spinning enterprises have bought large quantities of imported cotton yarn as an alternative.

This huge inventory of foreign cotton stores has also given the market a wait-and-see mood, and many cotton textile enterprises have reduced cotton imports.

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< p > the short-term price mechanism reform will bring about a decline in cotton prices.

In the long run, the mechanism of spontaneous adjustment of cotton market will be strengthened.

The gradual withdrawal of the purchase and storage policy will, to a certain extent, reduce the willingness of cotton growers in the mainland to reduce the planting area of cotton in the future.

At the same time, under the influence of marketization price formation mechanism, prices are mainly determined by supply and demand expectations, and the price difference between inside and outside cotton will gradually shrink, and the paction activity of cotton spot and futures market is expected to increase significantly, and the reduction of procurement cost will further stimulate the vitality of downstream textile enterprises.

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