Re - Innovation Of RMB Exchange Rate And Low Stimulation Of Export

< p > the industry generally speculated that the current adjustment of the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "RMB" /a > exchange rate is related to the central bank's intentional guidance, and to what extent will this guidance improve the recently bleak import and export data, which has also aroused widespread concern in the market.

Michael Heather, chief economist of Allianz Insurance in Germany, told reporters in the first financial daily that moderate depreciation of the RMB will help improve the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises' exports. "Since 2012, the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi has caused certain damage to China's export competitiveness."

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< p > "the devaluation of the RMB is mainly influenced by the low price of the intermediate price. If the middle price is still a policy signal, it means that the central bank intends to guide the RMB to continue to depreciate."

China Merchants Bank head office analyst Liu Dongliang told the first Financial Daily reporter.

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On Monday, the Central Bank of the central bank dropped sharply in the middle of the new year. The move also reversed the expectation that the market was basically in place for the current p depreciation.

Originally expected, during the "two sessions", in order to avoid the market fear caused by the continued depreciation of the renminbi, the central bank's guidance on the current depreciation of the renminbi will come to an end.

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< p > "because China's economic fundamentals are good, and the market generally believes that the central bank dominates the current round of devaluation, it is considered that the depreciation rate will not be very large. Therefore, many institutions do not think that they will depreciate too much. In order to avoid the counterattack of institutional arbitrage funds, the central bank needs to curb speculation through the dual volatility of the RMB exchange rate."

Yu Rui holds investment macro strategy analyst Li Qilin to our reporter.

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The p China US economic data released last weekend also had a certain impact on the further weakening of the RMB against the US dollar on Monday.

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According to the data released by China Customs in March 8, 2014 P, China exported 114 billion 100 million US dollars in February this year, down 18.1% compared to the same period last year, and imports 137 billion 80 million US dollars, an increase of 10.1% compared with the same period last year. The trade deficit of that month was 22 billion 980 million US dollars.

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< p > Liu Dongliang also reminded reporters that "this year's traditional Chinese Lunar New Year is in February, so the above data is not enough to explain how bad the export data in February is."

In addition, from the periphery, the US's non farm data released on Friday exceeded expectations, which also contributed to the strength of the US dollar.

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< p > < strong > stimulation < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > export > /a > < /strong > /p >

< p > in view of the fact that China's economic fundamentals are fundamentally different from the fragile emerging markets in the current currency market, the market generally believes that the renminbi is still mainly appreciated in the long run. The current round of devaluation is the central bank's action to expand the volatility of the RMB exchange rate and "make the front stop", and actively guide the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate in the market.

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< p > however, some analysts believe that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is not related to the consideration of management stimulating exports.

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< p > Shanghai securities issued a research report recently pointed out that "China's resource endowment advantages and the new pattern of world economic changes, determine the next 5~10 years export oriented economic growth mode is still China's realistic choice."

The agency believes that this government will return to the mode of economic growth that promotes exports under the direction of economic pformation.

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< p > Michael Heather also told our reporter that "in the past few years, the appreciation of the renminbi has been reducing the competitiveness of China's export commodities, and the moderate depreciation of the RMB can play a positive role in promoting exports."

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The depreciation of RMB P has started since late February, but these three weeks have brought great benefits to coastal export enterprises.

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< p > enterprises have already realized the help of RMB devaluation to their export.

Wang Yisheng, director of Lotte children's clothing, said in an interview with our reporter that although he did not increase the order immediately, he was still very happy. The depreciation of the RMB made him suddenly make a small profit and the profit margin increased by about 1%.

"We have settled in US dollars. This year's clothing orders in spring and summer have already been allocated to us by some customers in advance. From the book side, we have improved our profits. We are prepared to convert some US dollars into Renminbi in the near future to prevent future RMB appreciation."

Wang Yisheng said.

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< p > according to the investigation and analysis of Nantong clothing chamber of Commerce, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > RMB > /a > each percentage point fluctuation has a 4.5 percentage point impact on the net profit of the industry, while the average net profit level of the current textile and garment industry is only 2%~5%.

The low profit margin industry characteristics mean the devaluation of the RMB in stages, which is a huge positive for the labor-intensive textile and garment industry.

In addition, with the increase of orders brought by the recovery of European and American economies, the coastal export enterprises should be better off in 2014 than in 2013.

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