A Shares In The First Half Of The Year Inventory: Index Rose 35.6%, One Or Two Market Adverse Trend Report

By the end of June 30th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.15% in the first half of the year, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem were 14.97% and 35.6% respectively. The financing scale of refinancing in the first half was 509 billion 400 million yuan, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year.

In the first trading day of the first half of 2020, the growth enterprise market was booming. It rose nearly 2400 points in the 3% stations, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen two indexes also rose on the day of closing. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2984.67 points, the Shenzhen stock index closed at 11992.35 points, and the gem index closed at 2438.2.

The A share market has experienced substantial fluctuations in the past six months. However, in the background of the gradual weakening of the epidemic situation and the resumption of social and economic activities, the results in the first half of the year were good, and the gem was restructured by the market as a structural bull market.

On the other hand, the domestic IPO market has not been affected too much by the epidemic. The first half of the Shanghai Stock Exchange won double crowns of IPO and financing in the global exchange. Under the influence of the new regulation of refinancing, the non-public offering has also been substantially warmer. In the first half of the year, the listed companies issued a new plan for refinancing, which is more than the sum of the past two years.

The capital market in the first half of 2020 showed strong resilience under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Whether the primary market or the two tier market was under the control of the reform, it swept the previous year's downturn.

Overall, as of June 30th, the refinancing scale of A shares in the first half of the year was 509 billion 400 million yuan, basically unchanged from the same period last year. - Gan Jun photo

Half a year's official return signs of bull market

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the three indexes fell sharply on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, and then gradually increased. This is also the first paragraph of the first half of the V font market.

Beginning in March, the new crown pneumonia epidemic spread overseas, the global stock market volatility led to the poor performance of the A share market, and the Shanghai stock index hit the lowest point in the year. Subsequently, affected by the external market and the resumption of domestic resumption, A shares rebounded and went out of the second V word market. In June 30th, the gem and Shenzhen Composite Index reached a new high of over 4 years.

By the end of June 30th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.15% during the year, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem were 14.97% and 35.6% respectively.

From the industry point of view, plate differentiation is obvious, medicine, consumption, science and technology sector outstanding performance, Shen Yi class industry, the pharmaceutical bio plate led by 40.28% of the A shares, leisure services, electronics, food and beverage plate followed, while banks, steel, real estate and other sectors of the poor performance.

"The differentiation of the two tier market is more obvious than before. The epidemic has obviously affected the preference of the market, which is reflected in the two section of the V font market. As of June 30th, while some stocks hit a new historical stock price, the company also hit a record low in stock prices. Ze Hao investment partner Cao Gang told reporters.

The two tier market trend is tortuous, and the northward capital outflow is also an important factor. The two section of the V font market is largely overlapped with the outflow and inflow of the north capital.

From the data collected in the first half of the year, the northbound capital finally returned to the track of adding A shares and continuous large-scale inflow. According to statistics, in the first half of the year, the northern capital accumulated a net purchase of 118 billion 200 million yuan, and showed an accelerating trend of inflow. Although the first quarter of the last two quarters continued outflow of more than 100 billion yuan, but in the two quarter, a substantial net purchase of 136 billion 100 million yuan, and then maintained a large-scale net buying scale.

Looking back at the first half of 2020, the gem is the biggest bright spot. In fact, the time node of the start of the GEM market is expected to be calculated earlier. It is generally believed that the GEM market has started in the fourth quarter of last year. According to Wind statistics, the growth rate of GEM has exceeded 50% in the fourth quarter of last year.

In 2020, there was also a two level market in the market. The momentum was like rainbow. This is the new three board market. The new three board market making index has also recorded an increase of more than 20% in the first half of 2020 under the background of the comprehensive deepening reform of the new three boards. With the second half of the selection layer landing this positive blessing, the new three board two market performance in the second half of the year is also worthy of attention.

Refinancing scale breaking 500 billion

In the first half of the year, the two tier market trend was tortuous under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. However, compared with the A stock market, the main tone has never changed since the beginning of the year, and the speed of regulation financing is accelerating.

The first is the IPO market, and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is very limited. According to Ernst & Young's statistics, in the first half of 2020, a total of 120 companies in the A share market were listed on the market, raising 139 billion 900 million yuan, and the number of IPO and the amount of financing increased by 88% and 132% respectively.

Specifically, in March alone, both the new crown epidemic and the poor performance of the capital market had a double impact on IPO activity. The number of IPO and the amount of fund-raising were ranked at the end of the first half of the year. In January, it benefited from the 10 billion RMB IPO listing, and the amount of financing was the first half of the first half. The average financing of A shares rose to 1 billion 166 million yuan in the first half of last year, compared with 944 million yuan in the same period last year.

From the policy point of view, although the SFC clearly stated that it will improve the efficiency of IPO audit and the speed of issuing documents, but overall, it has little impact on the scale of financing.

What really excited the market in the first half of the year was the refinancing market, especially in the area of non-public offering, which is commonly known in the market.

On the evening of February 14th, a revised draft of the refinancing rules was issued after several days of consultation. The securities and Futures Commission has deregulation from the three aspects of the previous regulation's non-public offering of listed companies, which is also considered by the market to be back to the trillions of scale in the era of non-public offering.

Data from the first half of 2020 showed that the market and listed companies also followed up quickly. According to incomplete statistics from reporters, since this year, more than 530 A share companies have issued fixed increase plans, and the number of companies issuing plans has increased by 382.41% over the same period last year. Since June alone, 80 companies have issued fixed increase plans, accounting for 62.96% of the total number of companies scheduled to increase in 2019.

However, in February, the CSRC formally released the revised new financing rules. From the data level, the data of refinancing, especially the non-public offering in the first half of the year, did not increase significantly compared with the same period in 2019. According to Wind statistics, the scale of non-public offering in the first half of 2019 was 289 billion yuan, compared with 367 billion 400 million yuan in 2018, and the scale of non-public offering this year is 356 billion 800 million yuan.

In addition to non-public offering, convertible bonds, another major refinancing market, also did well in the first half of the year.

According to Wind statistics, the scale of convertible bond market has reached 94 billion 800 million in the first half of the year, and 91 companies have completed the issuance of convertible bonds, which is close to the size of 106 last year.

Overall, as of June 30th, the refinancing scale of A shares in the first half of the year was 509 billion 400 million yuan, basically unchanged from the same period last year. (Note: in the first half of 2019, there were close to 200 billion preferred shares in financing. In the first half of this year, the size of the preferred stock was only 7 billion 700 million. If the total size of the preferred stock was excluded, the issuance of non-public offering and convertible bonds increased significantly in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019.

Two major reforms fall in the second half of the year

Although the A share market has achieved fairly good performance in the first half of the year, the first tier market in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to.

First of all, two heavy reforms related to IPO -- the establishment of the new third board selection layer and the opening of the gem registration system will come down in the second half of the year. Compared with the first half of this year, this will contribute to a large number of IPO incremental enterprises on the basis of the original IPO rhythm unchanged.

According to the current market expectations, the new third board selection layer will be landed at the end of July, and the first batch of enterprises will be between 30-35. The first batch of listed companies after the registration system reform is expected to land before the end of August. According to market estimates, the gem and the new third board selection will contribute more than 100 increments to the IPO market this year, and the scale of IPO market will increase by tens of billions of yuan.

"Compared to the previous years, A shares IPO channel has enriched a lot. Nowadays, apart from the" Chuang Chuang "board, there are gem and new third board selection layer under the registration system. In addition, the SFC approval system also has channels for motherboards and small and medium-sized boards, with multiple boards competing to improve the efficiency of issuance audit. In the second half of this year, the IPO market will usher in the peak of financing scale in history. This is also a registration system under the stock market. The new normal of power financing. A large brokerage firm in Shanghai thinks that it is a senior broker.

In the second half of the year, the performance of the refinancing market has also made the market look more promising. Although the data on non-public issuance in the first half of the year are not very prominent, it is because the issuance of private placement plans from the listed companies to the time needed to get the financing eventually will result in a large increase in the demand for non-public offering in the first half of 2020. The scale of the financing market is a great step.

According to the market forecast, the scale of non-public offering in 2020 will exceed trillion yuan, which means that in the second half of 2020, the market size of A shares will be more than 700 billion. If coupled with the continued stability of convertible bonds and the maintenance of the scale of financing in the second half of the year, the scale of refinancing in 2020 will be further closer to the 2 trillion peak of the previous peak.

For understanding the main logic of this year's A share market, a small and medium-sized brokerage investment bank in Beijing believes that: "A share market financing continues to expand, and financing events become more frequent. It also needs to understand the reasons behind it. From the top-level design level, it has been making good use of capital markets to support the real economy, and the securities and Futures Commission has been gradually increasing in recent two years. Finding the direction, that is, supporting the real economy, including the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, is very necessary for the use of the primary market. Therefore, successive reforms have also been pushed forward and landed. From this logic, the continued prosperity of the primary market will continue for a long time, which is also an important factor for the improvement of the financing structure of our country. "