"Expectation" Becomes "Worried". Will The Peak Season Of Textile In The Second Half Of The Year Come As Scheduled?

The textile market in 2019 has already survived 2/3 of the time in the internal and external economic environment. At the level of expression, it is the surging anxiety of the industry.


A fabric trader who has been struggling for many years in the market sighs: "last year, we asked for the grey fabric factory to order goods, but this year is the other way round. A lot of gray cloth owners will let me pick up the goods, but I dare not store more goods. Nearly two hundred samples have been launched in June this year. The market has changed. "


"Now do not seek to make more money, just order to do a safe job, money recovery and satisfaction" has become the voice of many fabric traders. But even if business is not optimistic, the market is still "moth" constantly.


7.15 of the exchange rate, the boss is worried.


In August 26th, the offshore RMB exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was lower than that of the US dollar, and it lost more than 600 points in the day, hitting the lowest 7.15 points in the intraday market, and hitting a new low since February 2008, closing at 7.1528, down 703 basis points from the previous trading day.


The exchange rate broke "7" in August 5th, which has attracted the attention of the entire textile market. However, after the initial shock, the market has initially absorbed the impact of RMB breaking 7. At the end of the month, the RMB exchange rate dropped to 7.15 again, let the textile people sigh again!


The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations has gradually spread to the textile market in recent stages. Fabric quotations, settlement and so on are closely related to exchange rate, which directly affects profits. A foreign trade company official said, "at the time when the exchange rate was stable, foreign exchange settlement was carried out at that time. At that time, the exchange rate was stable, and the possibility of further decline was not great. Therefore, at the time of 7.05 exchange rate, the foreign exchange settlement was made, and when we saw the current exchange rate, we really regret it."


If the example is $10 thousand, the boss will lose 1000 yuan in vain. For some low-end products, a small number of single profit is 1000 yuan. Because of exchange rate fluctuations, cloth boss is likely to lose profits or even lose money. Like the roller coaster, the RMB exchange rate is also a test for settlement of foreign exchange. If we fail to grasp the opportunity, we may lose in vain.


The production of the finishing plant will be restricted, and the order production will be blocked.


In 2019, environmental remediation seemed to be slack, but in fact, it was getting stricter and more extensive. The dyeing and finishing industry is the first to bear the brunt, and the textile industry is also widely involved. The recent air pollution is also particularly important. Many factories have encountered limited production and shut down.


In August 20th, Hebei Gaoyang dyeing and printing enterprise was completely shut down; in mid August, the coating and printing enterprises in Shengze area were discontinued; all production enterprises in the north of the Yellow River will stop production and reduce emissions from September 1st.


Recent environmental incidents are frequent, and the closure of textile enterprises will intensify in September. The impact on textile enterprises in the second half of this year will be very deep. Orders will be postponed, orders will be transferred and so on. Especially when the order is about to be delivered, the impact of short time shutdowns will be enormous.


The cost of dyeing will rise again, and the cost of enterprises will be under pressure.


The cost of printing and dyeing, which occupies the largest cost of textile fabrics, has always been a headache for textile workers. This year, since April, dyeing fees have been adjusted for a long time, which has kept the boss relaxed. However, the good news is not long. Recently, a dyeing and finishing enterprise in Hangzhou, Zhejiang issued the "official letter on the price adjustment of dye charges", which said it would formally adjust the dyeing and finishing fee in August 26th. One stone stirred up thousands of waves. With the increase of queuing in some printing and dyeing factories, the sudden rise in prices of printing and dyeing factories will play a leading role in the later stage.


At the same time, the intensity of recent environmental remediation efforts will be increased. The above mentioned dyeing and chemical enterprises will be affected and the production will be suspended. The contradiction between supply and demand will be re fermented at the dye end, which will stimulate the instability of printing and dyeing ports again.


The increase in downstream costs caused by the rise in dye costs has undermined the small profits of the fabric market at present, and the situation of textile people is even worse.


The above incidents continue to ferment under the condition that the market is not prosperous, which has a great impact on the textile market. At present, the market is still thin, whether it will reverse with the arrival of September, that is, "golden nine silver ten" as scheduled?


Weakening demand for domestic and foreign trade


Xiaobian believes that the market is calm, mainly because the demand for fabrics is not as good as expected. Macroscopically, the economy has a direct impact on fabric demand. The increasingly heated trade between China and the United States, and increasing tariffs, once again pushed Chinese and American enterprises onto the cusp. In Europe, Britain is busy with "off Europe", but France is in a turmoil. The two major European powers are separated from their operations and have no time to take account of them. So clothing purchasing power in Europe is also declining.


The demand for the world's two largest clothing sales is weakening, forcing textile foreign trade enterprises to transfer orders from the original main sales places to Europe and the United States, the Middle East, South Africa and other places. And the Middle East, South Africa and other places are emerging apparel market in recent years. For China's textile enterprises, trade cooperation is still unstable, thus becoming a challenge in the second half and even in the future.


A foreign trade salesman said, "before the company had the US list, but because of the tariff problem recently, it did not reach a shared consensus with the US buyers. Therefore, the list of the US recently has been suspended. In the late stage, we are looking for new markets and developing new customers.


In the domestic market, market demand for clothing is also shifting. People's purchasing power on clothing has declined slightly. Through statistics bureau data analysis, the proportion of clothing consumption accounts for the total consumption is declining. In addition, people's attitudes towards clothes have changed, and fashion brands have become mainstream. Fast fashion is a fast fashion, so the demand for fabrics is no longer large as it used to be, but small batch and biased towards high-end products.


Grey cloth Market overcapacity


In the past 2016-2018 years, the textile market in the past three years has been particularly popular. The appearance of goods such as grey lining and queuing has repeatedly appeared, which has aroused the enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers. By the year 2019, excessive production enthusiasm showed disadvantages and overcapacity. The same problem also appeared in the clothing manufacturers, too much clothing inventory dragged the capital chain, brand closes shop events this year is common.


The owner of a domestic trade enterprise reflected: "7 and August were mainly based on development proofing, and now it has entered the last ten days. The traditional off-season is coming to an end. So far, the samples provided by the early stage are still not big. This year, the overall demand is small, there are too many brand clothes and there is no list of garment factories.


Xiaobian believes that the textile market in the second half of the year will still be difficult to improve. Today's textile market needs to replace birds with cage to solve the problem of overcapacity. The market itself has the function of self-regulation, followed by the cooperation of enterprises, but this process must be long and difficult. When the problem of overcapacity in the market is solved, a new round of market boom will emerge. Then, the productivity will go back to the old road of overcapacity, so the market will have small fluctuations.