2019 The First Quarter Of Textile Market Review: Polyester Upstream And Downstream Brand Competition, Conventional Products Shuffling Begins

In the twinkling of an eye, has entered the middle of April, and the first three months of the textile market performance?

From raw material market to weaving Market, market fluctuation in the first quarter has more or less impact on the subsequent market, and it is also the focus of market attention.

Raw materials market: no surprise, March usher in "little spring"!

In the first three months of this year, the market of the polyester filament market fluctuated little. Before the Spring Festival, there was a wave of stocking up in the market, and the market was rising slightly. During the Spring Festival, it was in a semi rest state.

Until March, the polyester market gradually began to pick up, ushered in a wave of "small spring" market, the manufacturer's quotation center of gravity slightly pulled up, but the rise space is limited.

The market review:

January: before and after the new year's holiday, the light market atmosphere of polyester market continued to spread. Until the middle of the year, the upsurge of upstream cost and the demand of downstream market increased slightly.

But by the end of the month, with the gradual lowering of the opening rate of the downstream market, the atmosphere of the Spring Festival is becoming more and more intense, and the market quotation is mostly calm.

February: with the festive atmosphere of the market becoming stronger and stronger, after a long holiday, the market is basically in a state of rest.

In the wake of the upstream raw materials, the polyester market has ushered in the "good start" market, but then the crude oil slump and the polyester market is suppressed.

March: in the beginning of the month, stimulated by the cost of upstream raw materials, the mainstream quotations of polyester manufacturers were higher and the market sentiment of the downstream market was higher.

In the second half of the year, the mainstream polyester manufacturers reproduced the buoy operation in the middle of the decade, with the cost boost, the demand explosion and the market favorable.

Production and marketing:

The first stage: in January, the production and sale of polyester filament market was good. With the increase of international oil price and the promotion of downstream purchasing, the stocking enthusiasm of downstream market was stimulated to a certain extent. The production and sale of polyester filament market continued to improve, especially in the POY market.

During the first ten months of January, the mainstream production and sale of polyester market became super normal. It can be said that the longest production and sales exceeded the 100% in the second half of 2018, and the mainstream production and marketing of polyester market concentrated at 100% above the average level, and some of them reached 200% or 300%.

The second stage: from the end of January to the first half of February, due to the influence of Spring Festival holidays, the weaving rate of downstream weaving factories was at a low level, so the performance of the polyester market was rather cold, and production and marketing dropped to 1-3.

The third stage: in late February, with the gradual increase of the start-up rate of the downstream market, the market trading atmosphere slightly improved. Until the beginning of March, with the sharp increase in international oil prices and PTA prices, the market atmosphere of polyester market was hot, the downstream market was catching up, the purchasing atmosphere was spreading, and the average production and sales rose to near 150-180%, and some of them reached 200%, 350% and 400%.

During the middle period, the market turnover atmosphere was once weak, but in March, the overall production and marketing of the polyester market was generally good, and from time to time a hot situation emerged.

Inventory:

In the first half of January, the overall purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream market increased, production and marketing improved, the stock pressure of the polyester manufacturers were effectively relieved, and the inventory was lowered. From January to February, polyester manufacturers entered the stage of the Spring Festival stock accumulation.

Since March, with the overall production and marketing of polyester market better, the inventory pressure has been relieved in the early stage, and the inventory level has declined as a whole. POY manufacturers' inventory has declined rapidly.

From the statistics of China silk net, the overall stock of polyester market is around 17-25 days now. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are concentrated in 9-14 days, and FDY stocks are close to 13-20 days, while DTY stocks are about 24-30 days.

Fabric Market: the competition of conventional products is fierce, and confidence is slightly insufficient.

Entering the first quarter of 2019, the weaving Market in Shengze was "U".

In the early days of the traditional Spring Festival holiday, traders kept hoarding operations frequently, and the market boom was once higher. But with the advent of the Spring Festival holiday, the market gradually entered the "empty window period".

In March, the market was rebounded under the demand of phased rigid demand.

Although this year's market is not as good as the same period last year, there are still tight supply of individual varieties on the market, and factory inventories are relatively low.

Market review:

January: near the Spring Festival, many traders try to hoard goods. They want to sell a wave of goods at low positions and sell them again after the new year. The atmosphere of market turnover has picked up slightly.

February: as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, many manufacturers in February will focus their efforts on clearing accounts, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market continues to decline.

After the Spring Festival, the weaving Market is still recovering slowly.

March: driven by seasonal demand and environmental expectations, market volume has rebounded markedly, especially for conventional products such as polyester taffeta, spring Asian spinning and imitation silk.

Main selling varieties:

1, simulation silk series: as the main products of lightweight fabrics, the simulation silk series has been a hot selling product in the first half of this year. This year, the conventional products are neutral in the market, the price is higher than the previous period 0.10 yuan / meter, and some of the hot selling varieties are tight in the market. There are manufacturers queuing up for 20 days, such as extinction, breaking card, SPH mess, etc. the conventional products 100D chiffon and crepe de crepe are also rising in the near future, and the market outlook is expected to be better.

2, polyester taff series: polyester taffeta series in the first quarter of the overall stability, especially in January for the Dan Bu market turnover is better, in which 260T, 290T polyester taff wide applicability, in addition to the cold clothing materials, after finishing processing, used for down clothing and other fabrics are also all year round demand, so many traders choose to hoarse taff again in the coming year, enter the market in March, the market turnover has weakened, some manufacturers quotations have been lower.

3, Oxford cloth series: entered the March Oxford series for bags and fabrics in the market pactions enlarged obviously, especially after coating, waterproof performance is good, sell to Haining, Changzhou and other places, for bags, raincapes, etc. are all polyester filament Oxford cloth, some manufacturers because of raw material prices rise, and increase the quoted price, the range is 0.05 yuan / meter.

4, elastic fabric: entering the middle of March, the market elastic fabric turnover has been enlarged, especially the T400 series market demand is bigger, the dye factory shipment starts slightly tighter.

Judging from the hot selling varieties, the first quarter of this year is not satisfactory, and the downstream orders are slower. In particular, the conventional products such as imitation memory, taaslong, NIS spinning, polyester taffeta, spring Asian spinning and peach skin are not as good as expected. The manufacturers have indicated that with the peripheral production capacity coming up, the competition between the middle and low end products is fierce, and the sales pressure is beginning to increase.

Price aspect

1-3 months, because the fabric market did not appear to be in short supply, the manufacturers had a strong mentality of shipment and little price adjustment. Most of them fluctuated slightly with the raw materials.

Inventory and start-up rates

In terms of inventory, due to the good performance of the downstream products in the early spring festival, the inventory of the manufacturers declined. After the Spring Festival, the manufacturers executed more orders before the Spring Festival, and most of the manufacturers were able to make production and marketing flat. With the end of the previous orders, the market pressure began to show.

After the Spring Festival, workers are coming to work late after the Spring Festival. Some manufacturers say that the normal operation of the machine has returned to normal for about a week. With the workers' problems solved, the construction started to increase gradually. As of the end of March, the rate of water injection and air-jet looms was about 9.

Forecast for future market:

According to the traditional practice, the first half of the year will generally show an upward trend in 3-5 months, commonly known as "golden three silver and four red May". However, judging from the performance of the first quarter of this year, the market did not improve substantially in March, and the market hot products were relatively small, which is far from the same period last year.

From the perspective of turnover, with the increase of market capacity, the discourse power of weaving factories is gradually losing, and manufacturers' profits are generally not as good as last year's.

With the deepening of environmental protection, the textile market continues to be rectified and has a certain impact on the market.

At present, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is thicker, the order quantity of the high-end products is still relatively stable. Some manufacturers say they have received orders from the first half of the year, and the pressure is not great. Overall, the market outlook is difficult to improve in large areas, and the market turnover is still dominated by stability.