China'S Economy Will Continue The Trend Of L And There Will Be No Big Fluctuations.

Growth rate, industrial growth rate, export value of industrial products and total retail sales of social consumer goods all showed a typical L trend, and the decline rate was decreasing. Some of the indicators showed a rebound trend: the GDP growth rate remained 6.7% for two consecutive quarters, slightly lower than that of the fourth quarter of last year. The industrial growth in the first half of the year was 6% in June, and 6.2% in the first half of the year. The average growth rate in the first half of the year was 6.7%. Compared with the export value of customs, the export value of industrial products was more stable than that of the previous year. The value of the export value of industrial products showed a mild upward recovery process, from 4.8% to 1 in February, and gradually increased to 2.3% in June. From the latest first half data, such as the economy

Still in the middle of the L trend, the structure is constantly optimized, the power of innovation continues to grow, and the foundation for growth is continuously consolidated.

The survey shows that over the 90% quarter of the two quarter, economists expect that China's economic growth in 2016 will be over 6.5%, with an average forecast value of 6.6%, indicating that economists expect the Chinese economy to continue the L trend and there will be no major fluctuations.

From the dynamic trend, the industrial prosperity index reflecting the prosperity of industrial operation and the business climate index reflecting the comprehensive operation of enterprises showed a moderate recovery in the two quarter. In the two quarter, the industrial prosperity index was 92.8, a slight increase of 0.3 points compared with the first quarter, and the business climate index was 107.8, a 0.7 point rise over the first quarter.

The above results show that China's economy is at the bottom of stabilization.

So, will the second half of this year continue such a L flat bottom trend?

First, look at the prospects for export growth.

In the first half of the year, JP Morgan's global PMI and new orders index showed a moderate downward trend. Global PMI declined from 50.8 in January to 50 in May, and the new orders index declined from 51.4 to 50.2, indicating that the global economic growth momentum was insufficient.

In June, the leading index of China's foreign trade exports released by Customs was 32.7, down 0.4 from last month.

Britain's departure from Europe may have a lagging effect on the European economy.

The above information indicates that there is still much uncertainty about the recovery trend of exports in recent months.

Let's take another look at the real estate situation that has played a major role in stabilizing the economy in the first half of the year.

Despite the rapid growth of commercial housing sales in the first half of the year, it has played a positive role in building materials, furniture, household appliances and even steel, nonferrous metals and other industries. But the real estate sales area and sales growth from 1 to June were significantly lower than that from 1 to May. Consumer confidence surveys show that consumer housing prices are expected to fall for 3 consecutive months, indicating that the real estate market will decrease in the second half of the year and contribute less to economic growth.

In fact, although the commercial housing area at the end of 6 was 710 million square meters, the number of millions of square meters declined in the 3 consecutive months, but compared with the construction area of nearly 6 billion 700 million square meters, this kind of

Still insufficient, the future dynamic inventory pressure is still huge.

In addition, the pressure of overcapacity is obvious.

According to the survey of business prosperity, the utilization ratio of industrial enterprises in the two quarter still showed a downward trend compared with the same period last year, and the production capacity of enterprises is still expanding.

That is to say, the pressure of excess capacity has not been alleviated.

However, despite the downward pressure on the economy, the driving force for economic upturn is also growing.

For example, through the implementation of the strategy of "one belt and one road", the private enterprises are right.

The rapid growth has contributed to the continuous growth of the export growth of private enterprises. This trend is expected to be further strengthened. For example, the upgrading of consumption structure and the upgrading of industrial structure are becoming more and more obvious, which has led to the rapid growth of cultural entertainment industry, information industry, science and technology service industry, medicine and automobile industry, to a certain extent, to hedge down the downward pressure of resources such as steel, coal and non-ferrous metals.

In addition, according to the China economic prosperity index, the finished product funds of industrial enterprises fell by 1.1% year-on-year at the end of the two quarter, the first time since 2008.

In the context of a 4% increase in the main business income, this aspect shows that the enterprises have strong desire to inventory, and on the other hand, they also indicate the emergence of the bottom of the inventory. The demand for replenishment of future enterprises will inevitably drive economic growth.

The lagging effect of macroeconomic policy is also showing. For example, the continued lowering of loan interest rates has promoted the gradual downward trend of corporate financial expenses, for example, a large number of engineering packages have promoted the rapid growth of new projects.

According to the latest data of the NDRC, 23 projects were approved and approved in June, with a total investment of 151 billion 100 million yuan, and investment accounts for nearly 1/3 of the first half of the year.

All these data suggest that the economic momentum of policy level is still strong in the second half of this year.

On the whole, whether the Chinese economy can complete the pformation of economic growth mode and realize the magnificent turn of innovation driven is the insistence on structural reform of supply side.