Abrupt Short Stop In PTA Device

PTA went through the bottom finishing and went out of the repair market in June. I believe that the main reason for this round of market is the overhaul of several sets of PTA devices and the high rate of opening up of downstream polyester, and the market supply and demand structure is more tight than expected. In addition, international crude oil prices continued to refresh in the first half of June, bringing the market sentiment of petrochemical products warmer. However, this week is about to usher in the British referendum. The fluctuation of commodity prices will intensify. With the gradual restart of the short stop PTA device, the supply of spot market is expected to increase, which will limit the PTA price upwards to repair space.

from Device operation Tracking situation, in June, Taiwan Xinghua and Zhuhai BP plant failure short stop, involving capacity of 2 million 450 thousand tons / year, has been restarted; Han Bang petrochemical and PetroChina Urumqi petrochemical plant planned maintenance, involving 2 million 275 thousand tons / year of production capacity, maintenance cycle continued until early July. The PTA spot price remained strong due to the short supply of market supply and the reduction of mainstream devices. As of June 21st, the closing price of PTA's 1609 contract was 4688 yuan / ton, up 1.91% from the last trading day in May.

Overall, planned maintenance arrangements are reduced. PTA The device will start up or increase the spot supply, thereby limiting the PTA price upwards to repair the space. The PTA main 1609 contract is expected to run 4500 to 4850 yuan / ton. It is suggested that the impact of the British referendum uncertainty on the trend of crude oil and other commodities and the unplanned overhaul of the PTA device should be concerned.

The author understands that with the restart of the short shutdown device, the PTA plant load has been raised to 72%, while in the late June only HPG Petrochemical set up another 700 thousand ton PTA device to announce the overhaul plan. It is estimated that the comprehensive load of the PTA plant will remain around 70%. Therefore, the short-term PTA plant start-up rate is expected to remain relatively high unless there is an accident or failure parking. Although from a seasonal point of view, the downstream and terminal markets have gradually entered the traditional consumption off-season. Weaving industry It does show a more obvious seasonal character, but the downstream polyester industry still maintains the characteristics of commencement of the peak season, which has been confirmed from the polyester plant operating rate.

According to the author's follow up, due to the early polyester price increase and the main production area printing and dyeing enterprises production capacity compression, the terminal loom and weaving industry start up rate is weaker than in previous years. The overall start-up load of polyester plant has always been above 80%, and its comprehensive load level has even increased slightly in recent days. The author believes that polyester processing profit is relatively good and inventory pressure is not big enough to support its factory to maintain a higher start up, the terminal demand weakened to slow conduction, and there is no sign of starting load down temporarily. There is still some support for the consumption of raw material PTA in the short term. In addition, the short supply of PTA devices in recent years reduced the supply of spot market, and the supply and demand pattern of PTA in June was tighter than expected.