A Share Market Trend Is Indeed More Difficult.

In 2008, there was a time when the bottom line was jingle: "I thought the stock market fell to the floor, but I didn't expect there was a cellar under the floor, there were hell in the cellar, and 18 layers in hell."

Where is the hell bottom of China's stock market?

Although "bear market does not speak bottom", it is a reference for future investment decisions to conduct a survey from a variety of angles.

The recent A share market trend is indeed more difficult, because there is no new strong catalyst in the macroeconomic level, so more and more incremental funds begin to wait and see.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% on Friday, and the margin of margin trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange fell by 3 billion 270 million yuan on the same day. The balance between the two cities and two currencies was 822 billion 410 million yuan, and it hit another one and a half low.

Since mid June 2015, along with the stock market's continuous fall, the deleveraging of the A share market has been spreading. From the private capital allocation with the highest leverage ratio to the umbrella trust, it finally spread to the two financial businesses of the low leverage securities company, and the two financial balance in the early July declined rapidly.

The stock market crash since January has prompted the two financial balance to continue to slide.

According to the historical data of China Securities and financial Limited by Share Ltd, in June 18, 2015, the balance between Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities reached a high point of 22728 billion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index received 4785.356 points on that day. In June 12th, the Shanghai composite index first hit the current round.

The high point is 5178.191.

On the other hand, "5. 30", 5. 30 years 9 years ago, the Commission raised the stamp duty in the middle of the night, and A shares fell sharply.

Over the past 9 years, how many people still remember these histories? The survey shows that investors know and know that the "5. 30" crash investors accounted for less than 7 of the total, while 31% of investors did not know what was "5 30".

What are the most impressive investors in the history of A shares? The volatility survey shows that 70% of investors are deeply impressed by the slump caused by fusing earlier this year.

Of course, the plunge is not "no good". Nearly half (49%) investors who participated in the survey said that the sharp fluctuations allowed them to learn stock trading rules.

Unfortunately, however, 36% of the investors failed to learn from them. In the face of a sharp fall, they remained "full of stocks".

For most investors, the collapse will lead to huge losses, but 15% of respondents believe that violent fluctuations are more likely to make money in the fire.

From the market environment and disk observation, more and more funds began to agree with the strength of the fund, and think that the bottom trend of L is expected to continue.

That is to say, the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to sew and oscillate at 2800 points and one line, and the foundation of L will be more solid.

Moreover, this corresponds to the L bottom of the macro economy, and the macro economy also supports the L bottom trend of A shares.

However, the A share market is a barometer of macro-economy, but the short and medium term trend of A shares still has its own personality.

For example, from 2002 to 2005, China's macro-economy entered a new rising cycle, but the A shares continued to decline. The main reason was that the stockbrokers rectified and investors worried about the stock reform, resulting in the continuous outflow of stock capital in the A share market, and the trend of A shares had deviated from the macro economy.

Of course, the A share finally ended in the bull market cycle from 2005 to 2007, which confirms that the stock market will eventually reflect the macroeconomic trend.

That is to say, under the background of the L trend of the macro economy, the possibility of short line breaking down or even deviating from the bottom of L is not ruled out in the A share market.

On the one hand, the historical trend of A shares shows that continuous cross trend is generally not possible. After all, stock capital has cost in the paction process, and there will be outflow of funds, thus making the imbalance between stock fund and chips become only a step further, so as to form a new balance.

On the other hand, the fluctuation of the external market should not be ignored, and its impact on the A share market can not be ignored. Especially, the market's concern about the Fed's shrinking of the table and raising interest rates will eventually become an external driving force to break the short balance of A shares.

In terms of valuation,

P / E is still far from the bottom of history.

The Shanghai composite index is about 13 times earnings at present and about 10 times the bottom.

From the financial stock market earnings ratio, the current P / E ratio is about 8 times.

At the same time, Shanghai Composite Index profit also showed a negative growth trend, which means that even if the index does not rise, the P / E ratio is likely to rise.

At present, the valuation of small and medium-sized boards is about 50 times, which has dropped to 20 times in history, and the lowest is 16 times.

The gem's current valuation is about 70 times, and its most undervalued value is about 30 times.

From a macro perspective, it is divided into two parts. One is to examine the classic Buffett index "/GDP of total market value". One is to examine the asset allocation index "total market capitalization /M2". At present, these two indicators have a certain margin from the bottom of history.

The total market value of /GDP is around 60%, and its lowest value has been around 36% in history. Since the A shares were not fully circulated before the split share structure reform, the index was distorted before 2006.

From the asset allocation index "total market capitalization ratio M2", this indicator is 24.7% at 1664 points.

According to the current M2 (broad money supply) scale of 144 trillion and 500 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), the corresponding total market capitalization should be around 35 trillion and 700 billion yuan, and the corresponding Shanghai comprehensive reference point is 2443.

From the risk-free interest rate level, the corresponding asset prices, 2275 to 2952 points is a comparison of the 2011 to 2013 bottom shock interval, and 2600 points may be the center of this shock interval.

Between the end of 2011 and the end of 2013, the average market risk-free interest rate was about 3.6%, while the current interest rate was about 2.8%, a decrease of about 23%.

Without considering the profit situation, according to the impact of interest rate changes on the valuation of the market, 2.8% of the risk free.

The corresponding average index point should be around 2613.

Xu Shaoxing, a senior private-equity personage, said that by reviewing the callback data after repeated ups and rises in history, the Shanghai stock index rose from 1849 to 5178, and rose 3329 points during the period.

The market then withdrew sharply by about 75%, that is, the index was repeatedly consolidated at more than 2638 points.

From historical data, it is found that there are four times more than 75% withdrawal, and the location after the withdrawal is basically the bottom area. Whether the bottom has formed has yet to be verified by the market.

Will the market continue to fall? For this, Xu Shaoxing's view is that there is no big drop in space. The following 10% points below 3000, that is, the 2700 bottom is the big bottom interval, and this year's dinner market will appear in the second half.

The A way is always to give you hope in despair, and to throw a big pot of cold water in your hopes.

However, the final trend of the market will be grinding, grinding is a process, without grinding the market, there will be no real market.