Analysis Of Hebei Market Before And After The Cotton Market

First, the supply is loose.

This year, the domestic market cotton includes: 6 million 161 thousand tons of new cotton (National Bureau of statistics data), national cotton stocks, and at least 894 thousand tons of imported cotton, and entered the year February.

The factory is trying to move to the mainland. It is said that some of the mainland warehouses are full of cotton.

Second, the demand is sluggish.

The number of cotton used in spinning this year is exactly the same, and the market view is not very consistent. Some people think that at 6 million 500 thousand tons, there are still 700-750 tons.

But it is generally believed that no more than 8 million tons.

The median figure is 7 million tons, or only a slight increase of 5% in the previous year.

"The contradiction between supply and demand is not resolved, and cotton prices will not rise."

The market participants believe that after the Spring Festival, domestic cotton will still maintain a stable and weak pattern in the game of Lido and bad luck.

Then, if supply and demand are so loose, is there any possibility of a sharp drop in cotton prices?

Recently, many market participants believe that a big drop does not exist.

There are several reasons for this.

1, cotton prices hit bottom.

Due to the target price policy, this year

There is a certain decline in the level of temporary storage and storage. The cotton price has reached the cost line, and the downward trend will lead to the strength of cotton farmers and cotton enterprises.

Recently, the main force of Zheng cotton futures continued to linger on the pressure line of 13000 yuan / ton, indicating that the market's awareness of the bottom of cotton prices is getting the same.

2, at present, the S-6 price of India cotton port pick up price is 14200-14500 yuan / ton, especially in India, and the price of throwing and storing is higher. The market predicts that there will be no possibility of a significant decline in India cotton this year.

In particular, China strictly controls import quotas. It is estimated that the quota of textile enterprises will mainly be used for customs clearance of US cotton, Australian cotton and long staple cotton. The impact of low price cotton on the domestic market will be weakened this year.

3, textile enterprises are "thirsty for cotton" for medium and high grade cotton.

First, the hand picking cotton in Xinjiang above 3128 has basically been ordered, and the market is hard to find.

Two, the United States cotton and Australia cotton ports are hard to find.

As of 12, the price of high-quality Australian cotton port has reached 17200-17300 yuan / ton, and the US cotton is 16300 yuan / ton line, up 200 yuan / ton compared with last week.

But according to the textile enterprises, nowadays, quality cotton and cotton are "hard to get".

4, most textile enterprises "low inventory" new year.

According to Jilu and Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile enterprises reflect, at present, most of the raw material inventory of textile enterprises is in 20-30 days, and the stocking level before the Spring Festival in previous years is more than a month and a half.

Of course, there is a shortage of funds and the confusion behind the market. However, the low inventory state is bound to have a replenishment process after the Spring Festival.

Therefore, the market is expected to be particularly resistant after the Spring Festival at the current cotton price level.

In particular, some of Xinjiang's fine cotton and long staple cotton enterprises are "only left unsold". In addition, some Corps enterprises still insist on quotations in October 2014. For example, the 3128 class pickup and pick-up cotton price is still in the line of 14500 yuan / ton, which gives other markets the courage to continue to "bite the green hills and not relax".

However, it is important to note that although there are some factors in the market that support cotton prices from going down sharply, supply and demand remain the main keynote under a market condition.

China's current year

Such a loose condition, cotton prices may be small, weak or stable, or mainstream, so selling at the same price is the best policy.