The RMB Exchange Rate Will Be Consolidated In The Short Term.

< p > in the background of a sharp fall in the overnight dollar index, the intermediate price of the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > /a > US dollar edged higher yesterday, but the spot exchange rate was higher and lower, closing at 6.20 below.

Analysts said that in the short term, the RMB exchange rate is difficult to form a trend market.

From the perspective of comprehensive purchasing and selling power, market expectations, macroeconomic performance and other factors, the RMB exchange rate will remain temporarily volatile.

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< p style= "text-align: center" > img border= "0" alt= "align=" center "src=" /uploadimages/201404/10/20140410083511_sj.JPG "/" < < > >

< p > < strong > spot exchange rate fell 6.20 < /strong > < /p >.

< p > in April 8th, when the investors waited for the minutes of the Federal Reserve's previous conference on interest rates, the US dollar index fell unexpectedly.

Thanks to France's February trade deficit and the UK's February industrial production and other slightly favorable economic data, the euro and Sterling strengthened sharply on that day, and the US dollar index fell by 0.55% to 79.78 points.

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< p > under this background, on the 9 day, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was set at 6.1490, which was 37 basis points higher than the 6.1527 of the previous day.

As a result, the central price recorded a second consecutive rise.

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< p > spot market trading. On the 9 day, the yuan opened 6.1890 against the US dollar and opened 78 basis points. Then it rose to 6.1860 and rose to 6.19.

However, with the gradual influx of the market purchase of foreign exchange, the exchange rate fell rapidly to 6.19.

In the afternoon trading session, the spot exchange rate of RMB dropped further, closing at 6.2005, down 37 basis points or 0.06% from Tuesday.

So far, since March 24th, the spot exchange rate of RMB has been widely oscillated around the 6.20 integer pass for 12 consecutive trading days.

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< p > offshore a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > market < /a >, on the 9 day, the spot exchange rate of RMB against US dollar CNH continued to run near 6.20 in Hongkong market, which is closer to the domestic exchange rate.

The overseas dollar / RMB 1 year non principal forward exchange rate (NDF) is on the 6.2250 line.

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< p > < strong > short term maintain concussion trend < /strong > < /p >.

< p > China's economic performance, market expectations, the strength of foreign exchange buying, and the US dollar trend, analysts pointed out that the short-term RMB exchange rate is expected to be dominated by consolidation trend.

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< p > a major foreign exchange trader in Shanghai said that when the RMB was above 6.19 in the recent market, the buying and selling of foreign exchange would often be launched, showing that all parties had insufficient confidence in the recovery of RMB.

But at the same time, after the early stage of the sharp derogation, the funds for short selling of the renminbi have also become more cautious. The real return of the strong dollar in Shanghai's foreign market is much lower than that of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > investor < /a >.

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< p > the trader also indicated that the specific measures and trade situation of the steady growth of macro-economy in the next stage may become a new trading clue for the market.

In particular, the March trade figures to be released on Thursday (April 10th) are worth our attention and analysis.

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< p > it is worth mentioning that although many investors in the international foreign exchange market generally hold a higher expectation of the Fed's position towards hawkish positions and see a lot of dollars in the long term, most domestic institutions are still confident that the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened again during the year.

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< p > this week, Anxin securities reported that the depreciation of RMB since February was accompanied by a rapid decline in the interest rate of funds. There is a close correlation between the decline in interest rates and the obvious deceleration of the recent economic growth.

As the economy stabilizes, private sector investment is likely to rise again, and medium and short-term interest rates are beginning to stabilize. The yuan is expected to re-enter the slow appreciation channel at the beginning of the two quarter of this year and the beginning of the three quarter.

The latest view of China Merchants Bank also holds that in the medium term, the real interest rate difference between RMB and < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > US dollar /a will remain at an attractive level, which determines that the RMB will still have strong appreciation momentum in the medium term.

Without considering the intervention of monetary authorities, it is estimated that there will be 3% to 5% appreciation in the next 6 to 12 months.

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