Reserve Cotton Throwing And Storage Officially Launched Zhengmian Or Concussion

< p > < strong > 1. Spot market: the quotation of spot quotation is decreasing, and the price of imported cotton is steady. < /strong > < /p >
< p > January 11th: < /p >
< p > China > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > price index 328 level is 19258 yuan / ton, compared with last week 19207 yuan / ton increased 41 yuan / ton; 229 level is 20012 yuan / ton, compared with last week 19989 yuan / ton 33 yuan / ton. Spot quotes continued to maintain a slight upward trend, mainly due to the lack of market circulation resources. < /p >
< p > cotton electronic matching > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > market < /a > Contract MA1301 closed 19238 tons in recent months, compared with last week 19328 yuan / ton fell 90 yuan / ton, matching market price fell compared with the same period last week, mainly due to the recent worries about dumping. < /p >
< p > imported cotton FC Index M index is 85.96 cents / pound, 1% customs duty 13797 yuan / ton, discount slip quasi tax 14887 yuan / ton, import cotton quotation slightly declined, but overall stability, at present, a large number of imported cotton to Hong Kong, waiting for the state to issue quotas for imported cotton. < /p >
< p > < strong > two, and the analysis of influencing factors < /strong > < /p >
< p > January, the 14 official country's official dumping will bring a slight impact on the market. The state will launch cotton auction in January 14th. The starting price of the 3 grade cotton is 19000 yuan / ton, and the cotton sold out of the warehouse is mainly stored in 2011 and the previous reserve cotton, at least 3 million tons. However, what is most concerned about this dumping is that the national cotton store will be tied up with the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "tariff > /a > import quota of 3 to 1. Thus, the weighted average cost is less than 18 thousand yuan / ton, plus other outgoing expenses, the average cost is not more than 18200 yuan / ton. At present, the market price standard level is above 19200 yuan / ton. From the price point of view, dumping will cause a downward impact on the market price. Therefore, from the point of view of spot, there are not many reasons for the recent rise of Zheng cotton. < /p >
< p > December USDA report sharply raised China's output, and the report was empty. According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA) January global cotton supply and demand forecast report, this year's global cotton initial inventory of 14 million 991 thousand tons, compared with 2012 December reduced by 70 thousand tons; global output of 25 million 873 thousand tons, increased by 420 thousand tons; consumption accumulated 23 million 92 thousand tons, reduced 92 thousand tons; import and export trade volume of about 8 million 460 thousand tons, increased by 250 thousand tons; the end of the world 17 million 792 thousand tons of storage, increased by 452 thousand tons, inventory consumption than 77.05%, compared to 2011/12 increased by 452 thousand percentage points. On the Chinese side, the output is expected to be 7 million 294 thousand tons this year, up by 436 thousand tons, consumption of 7 million 729 thousand tons, unchanged, import volume of 2 million 722 thousand tons, an increase of 218 thousand tons, and the ending inventory of 8 million 841 thousand tons, an increase of 653 thousand tons; inventory consumption is more than 114.24%. overall, the impact of the December report on cotton prices is empty. < /p >
< p > storage and storage totaled 5 million 580 thousand tons, exceeding the annual reserves of 76%.. As of January 11th, cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 5582350 tons in 2012, and 2462320 tons in Xinjiang, and 1729860 tons in the mainland. The total turnover of key enterprises reached 1390170 tons. According to the forecast of the December USDA report, China's output is 9 million 290 thousand tons. At present, the storage capacity of 5 million 580 thousand tons has exceeded 76% of the annual output of new cotton, and most of them are high quality resources in the market. In the later stage, the regulation and policy guidance will gradually increase. < /p >
< p > Industrial inventory is declining, and textile enterprises are slightly optimistic about the market outlook. According to the survey of China cotton information network, the inventory of cotton stocks in textile enterprises was 792 thousand and 900 tons, which was 5 thousand tons less than that of last month. Of the surveyed enterprises, 45% reduced cotton inventories, 25% last month, and 33% increased cotton inventories. Last month, for the whole of 38%., most textile enterprises believed that the downstream market would gradually improve, especially in the domestic demand market, and the world economy slowly recovered, and the domestic product structure had been adjusted. But personally, because of the national policy, the export situation, and the huge price gap at home and abroad, the latter demand is also facing great uncertainty, but it will surely get better than in 2012, but the process is slow. < /p >
< p > the signing of US cotton increased from last week to increase in volume. According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA), 12.28-1.3 signed a net US export of 44566 tons of upland cotton this week (9% higher than the previous week, but 27% less than the average four weeks ago), 58219 tons of shipment (41% more than the previous week, 45% more than the average of nearly four weeks). China signed 15740 tons of upland cotton and 24902 tons of shipments this week. It can be seen that in the context of the continuous decline of US cotton prices, the signing of the US cotton contract is better than before, especially in the context of China's cotton quotas and cotton bundled selling. < /p >
< p > < strong > three, outlook and operation strategy < /strong > < /p >
< p > the quota bundled selling of reserve cotton and imported cotton is conducive to the smooth promotion of the storage of cotton reserves by the state, and also helps the textile enterprises to reduce procurement costs, meet the demand for replenishment of textile enterprises before the year, change the pattern of tight supply in the market at present, and in addition, the cost of shooting will be lower than the current market price, and the cotton price will continue to rise or will be amended. For Zheng cotton, under the pressure of the policy orientation and supply pressure of the state, the medium term will still maintain a narrow range of shocks, and the short-term price will be close to the top of the interval. < /p >