2013 Textile And Clothing Strategy: Wait For The Cycle To Pick Up Again

< p align= > left > > strong > < /strong > the negative valuation was eliminated by the end of November 27, 2012. The valuation of textile and garment industry is 16.09 times, the textile manufacturing sub industry is valued 18.67 times, and the apparel home textile sub industry value is 15.08 times.

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< p align= "left > > strong > 2012 industry review: < /strong > /p >

< p align= "left" > strong > /strong > (1) < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile manufacturing > /a >: the trend of internal and external demand warming is not clear, and cotton price difference keeps high and low.

In terms of external demand, textile and garment exports increased by only 1-10 in the past 2% months, while the growth rate of domestic demand retail businesses was slowing. The difference between cotton prices and the market structure of the national cotton storage market and the supply of foreign cotton remained high.

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< p align= "left" > strong > /strong > (2) clothing home textiles: retail sales growth seasonally, but the stock situation is still high.

In October 2012, the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the sales volume of the above quota approved 00 year-on-year growth rate was warmer; the above quota < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_x.asp" > clothing shoes and hats < /a > needle textile retail sales and hundreds of key large retail enterprises also experienced seasonal warming; meanwhile, clothing CPI continued to fall; the three quarter stock grew by an average of 30.3%.

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< p > < strong > clothing industry will continue to grow steadily, but there is also a cyclical nature.

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< p > < strong > < /strong > (1) urbanization and consumption upgrading promote the growth rate of the industry to remain above 13%: 1, the urbanization process in the past ten years has raised the urbanization rate to 51.3%; the minimum wage standard in 2 and 12th Five-Year will increase by more than 13% per annum; 3, China's entry into the middle-income countries, also means that our consumption has entered the era of mass consumption.

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< p > > strong > strong > < /strong > < /strong > (2) clothing consumption is affected by the economic cycle: 1. The United States and Hongkong's < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp > clothing retail > /a > growth rate has a high correlation with GDP growth rate; 2, the change of clothing CPI is positively related to the growth rate of textile and clothing income year-on-year; 3, brand clothing has the characteristics of the post cycle.

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< p > < strong > /strong > (3) the growth power of industry is switched to endogenous growth: operation is king: 1, the era of maintaining high growth can only be maintained by extension alone; 2, the pformation of channel into operation is king; 3, the improvement of operational capability will be reflected in the flat effect.

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< p > < strong > investment view < /strong >.

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P > strong > /strong > (1) < a href= "http://fz.sjfzxm.com/" > textile manufacturing plate < /a >, due to the market pattern of oversupply of cotton, the price continues to decline, and the price of domestic cotton is affected by the national reserve market. The price of domestic cotton is still high. At the same time, the situation of the Canton Fair shows that foreign trade is still sluggish. Therefore, we maintained the previous judgement that the industry has not yet arrived at the turning point, and the plate is still maintaining a shock pattern. It is suggested that the relevant listed companies in the non cotton industry chain should be concerned, such as the leather industry's Xingye Technology (9.21, -0.09, -0.97%);

The apparel home textile market has experienced 9-11 consecutive months of decline, and the whole plate valuation has dropped to 15.08 times. This shows that the expected slowdown in the performance of brand apparel in 2013 has shown that the whole plate valuation has a margin of safety. However, because the industry performance inflection point has not yet appeared, there is a lack of stock price incentives in the short term. After waiting for the economic cycle to pick up, a href= "http://pop.sjfzxm.com/popimg/fz/index.aspx" > apparel retail > /a > returns to the path of sound growth. However, we are optimistic about the growth of the company in the medium and long term, and the companies with strong operating ability, such as the seven wolves (16.46,0.21,1.29%), nine herdmen (14.09, -0.17, -1.19%), the United States Bona (costumes), the card slave Road (35.47, 2), and the search for special. < p > strong > strong > /strong > /strong > (2)

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< p > risk warning.

The uncertainty of economic growth and external demand recovery; and the rising costs.

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< p > < strong > friendship hint: this message is reprinted. The purpose of pmitting this message is not to endorse its point of view or to confirm its description.

The contents of the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment suggestions.

Investors operate accordingly, at risk.

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