August 6, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures The central line is more than single.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20294 yuan / ton; 229 level 19436 yuan / ton; 328 level 18524 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17617 yuan / ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 3, the domestic cotton spot price runs smoothly. In recent years, the domestic cotton market price has continued to weaken, while the domestic cotton market is also pessimistic, and the market lacks substantive good news. Although China's purchasing and storage policy can protect the interests of domestic cotton farmers and some cotton enterprises, it is difficult to solve the difficult situation of textile downstream consumption which is difficult to improve to the textile industry.

3. imported cotton: in August 2nd, the price of imported cotton in China's main port generally declined, most varieties fell 0.75 cents, and West Africa cotton declined less than 0.25 cents. For external cotton, supply pressure is difficult to alleviate, and insufficient import cotton quota is always an important reason for the indigestible cotton inventory.

4. US cotton exports: in August 2, 2012, the US Department of Agriculture announced the US cotton export report on July 2012 20-26. In the week of 2011/12, the net volume of US cotton exports was 9 thousand tons, and the main buyers were China (2 thousand and 500 tons), Mexico, Thailand and South Korea. In 2012/13, the net volume of US cotton exports was 38 thousand and 400 tons. The main buyers were Turkey, Mexico, Morocco and China (3 thousand and 800 tons).

5.ICE cotton: in August 3rd, the US and the commodity markets rose sharply as the US employment and manufacturing data were better than expected and market sentiment was boosted. Affected by it, ICE futures slowly opened up after the opening, and gradually expanded the rally, the December contract eventually rose 297 points.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy, and there is no substantial change in demand. The policy of collecting and selling reserves and quota policy has become an important variable affecting the cotton price trend in the near future. Although the purpose of the state is not to suppress the market, dumping at low prices or increasing quotas will objectively play a role in suppressing the price of the cotton social circulation market. But from the disk and cotton processing enterprises are expected to see, Zheng cotton below the space is limited, the United States cotton last Friday heavy volume rose, Zheng cotton has a boost. Zheng cotton short line has three equal line pressure, but the possibility of breaking the pressure level on the middle line is greater. Short term interval operation is the strategy, and the investors in the central line pay close attention to the opportunity to buy more opportunities.

[Wanda futures] low economic data to strengthen the Fed's stimulus measures expected, short back to boost the U.S. cotton

On Friday, US economic data showed that the US unemployment rate reached 8.3% in July, higher than 8.2% in June. Although the economy has continued to downside risks, the weaker economic data strengthened the expectation of the Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus measures, and the global commodity futures rebounded strongly on Friday. ICE cotton rose strongly under the support of short buying. The main contract in December once touched 73.97 cents / pound of the daily limit, and it gained 2.97 cents to 73.94 cents / pound throughout the day. Next week, USDA will announce the first monthly supply and demand report in the new year. If consumption continues to be downgraded, the rebound of ICE cotton will be suppressed, focusing on the pressure level of 75 cents / pound.

This week ICE cotton rose strongly, the main force of the December contract is stable on the short-term average, there is a trend to challenge 75 cents / pound pressure level again. KD and MACD indicators have again formed a multi head trend in the high position, MACD index continues to rise in a row, the red column growth, the rebound will continue, December contract is expected to challenge 75 cents / pound pressure level.

Although a website on Friday said that the policy of dumping and storage was not formally formulated, the recent rumor about throwing storage was not encouraging the enthusiasm of the bulls. The market generally accepted the view that it was about to throw the store in the near future. The economic data in early August showed that China and the United States were dragged down by the recession in the euro area, and that the economy could continue downhill and drag the pace of global economic recovery, which would inhibit the consumption of global textile and clothing. From China's PMI data, China's orders and export orders continue to slide, creating a 8 month low, that is, the overall market is in a weak position. Although Zheng cotton is expected to rebound with ICE cotton, but this is not enough to change its weak pattern. On Monday, we pay attention to the 1301 contract 19100 yuan / tonne pressure level, such as cotton price standing on the above price, the single stop loss is out of the field, otherwise it will continue to increase the blank position by relying on the pressure level. {page_break}

[German futures] US cotton breakthrough up Zheng cotton to maintain concussion

On Friday, CF1301 was in a narrow concussion. CF1301 closed more than 9.5 million hands, and its position decreased slightly. CF1301 closed at 18900 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan / ton, reduced 5886 hands; in August 3rd, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 87.39 cents / pound, up 0.21 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14084 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14908 yuan / ton.

According to New York August 3rd, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton Futures closed at two and a half months on Friday. Analysts said the United States announced that employment growth in July was the most in five months, driving speculative funds to buy. The cotton contract for ICE12 months was 73.94 cents a pound, up 2.97 cents or 4.18%.

In August 3rd, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 12460 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous day, an order reduction of 1920 tons and a total purchase of 137740 tons. Domestic market, 2, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly. At present, cotton supply and demand pattern has not changed as a whole, and there is a lack of boosting factors in the short term. Therefore, cotton price trend is still in a weak position.

On Friday, Zheng cotton weak shocks, active buying very little, continued shrinkage, technical indicators go bad, evening Nongda large good financial market, the United States cotton rose 4 points, but today Zheng cotton fear reaction is not big, and even continue to go low. Investors wait for a while. Today's operation recommends, wait and see, CF1301 reference price range is 18900-19200.

[MEIKO futures] industry embarrassment has not improved significantly, Zheng cotton shock waiting guidelines

Overnight, in August 3rd, the US and the commodity markets rose sharply as the US employment and manufacturing data were better than expected and market sentiment was boosted. Affected by it, ICE futures slowly opened up after the opening, and gradually expanded the rally, the December contract eventually rose 297 points. Next week, the market will usher in the USDA supply and demand report. Investors will be watching more and more strongly. But with the breakthrough of the main price average, the cotton price in the future may still have a certain upward space.

On the news side, in the last week of July, heavy rain in central India, soil moisture in cotton fields was effectively replenish, but rainfall in other cotton producing areas was still insufficient. Overall, most of the cotton producing areas in India are still in dry state. The rainfall in India is 19% less than the normal value. The drought in Gujarat is particularly prominent, and the prospect of cotton yield is even more worrying. The India government may again restrict cotton exports.

In the international market, in August 3rd, the price of imported cotton in China increased slightly, and most varieties rose 0.5 cents. Judging from this week's situation, the price of cotton quotas has basically maintained an oscillating pattern, mainly because the market has not had any significant news. On the one hand, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank did not make any moves to stimulate the market. On the other hand, the supply pressure on the basic side is still very large, and the willingness of China textile mills to replenishment is not strong, and they are all reducing cotton consumption. If the downstream demand remains unchanged next week, the downward pressure on cotton prices will increase.

Domestic market, 3, the domestic cotton spot price stable operation. In recent years, the domestic cotton market price has continued to weaken, while the domestic cotton market is also pessimistic, and the market lacks substantive good news. Although China's purchasing and storage policy can protect the interests of domestic cotton farmers and some cotton enterprises, it is difficult to solve the difficult situation of textile downstream consumption which is difficult to improve to the textile industry.

Spot quotation, August 3rd, the US C/A cotton quotation is 87.10 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15000 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 92.10, the general trade port price is 15648 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton price is 90.10, the general trade port price is 15384 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price is 86.10, the general trade port delivery price is 14874 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 85.10, the general trade port delivery price is 14750 yuan / ton. The national cotton price index A is 19439 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan, and the B index is 18529 yuan.

Market analysis, at present, only 2 months to the new year. Combined with the actual situation of the industry, the market is expected to rise again to the National Reserve Bank and the increase of quotas. Overnight American cotton The upward trend is the 75 critical pressure on the upward trend. Zheng cotton above the multi head average suppression, short-term prediction is still around 19000 shock mainly.