China Daily Increases Textile And Apparel Market Expectations

The day before yesterday, the central bank again lowered the interest rate of deposits and loans to improve the downward trend of economic growth and promote the consumption of residents. As the most anticipated textile product industry with the highest expected growth in China's report, it will also benefit from it, thus accelerating the downturn of the industry.

According to the Securities Daily research center and the flush (300033, stock bar) iFinD statistics, as of Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities have 1502 listed companies to disclose the results of the announcement, a total of 506 performance increased, accounting for 20.87% of the listed companies.

What is worth noting is that

Industry, industry, a total of 77 listed companies, of which 29 companies increased performance, accounting for 37.66%, and become the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities, the highest proportion of performance companies.

In the above sectors, 11 stocks increased by 50% in the medium term, respectively. They were Thailand shares (002517, stock bar) (180%), *ST Far East (146.22%), the Bank of China (000982, stock bar) (105%), Hongda high tech company (002144, stock bar) (80%), ST de cotton (61.75%), good bird (60%), card slave Road (60%), (ST), A crown, seven wolves (HEX), search for special (shares) and shares.

A typical example is Thailand shares. The company factor company receives the 54 million 745 thousand and 300 yuan subsidy from the Anqing Municipal Finance Bureau's key projects. It is estimated that in the first half of 2012, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 57 million 373 thousand and 900 yuan ~6178.73 million, representing a significant increase of 160%~ 180% compared with the same period last year.

Review textile

Development trend, market analysts believe that, due to the two quarter of 2011, raw material prices fell, the European and American economic downturn and the increase in the number of bases in the same period last year, the export growth rate of textile and garment industry decreased significantly from September 2011, but the downward trend in the two quarter of 2012 has stabilized.

According to the monthly view, the export fluctuation rate of industries in 2012 from 1 to May was -0.43%, -2.54%, 2.86%, 0.45% and 2.04% respectively, indicating that the trend of industrial export growth declined steadily in the two quarter. In the future, with the further implementation of the national growth promotion policy, the industry boom is expected to pick up.

As of yesterday's close, the textile and garment industry has 22.96 times the latest dynamic price earnings ratio, 2.43 times the market net rate, the latest average stock price 7.92 yuan, 2.66% in the first half of the year, 230.63% of the total exchange rate, the total turnover of 33 billion 477 million shares, and the total turnover of 287 billion 949 million yuan.

In the first quarter of 2012, the operating income of the listed companies in the textile and garment industry increased by 2.91% compared to the same period last year; net profit fell by -20.58% compared with the previous year; the asset liability ratio was 48.34%; the earnings per share were 0.08 yuan; the net assets per share were 3.89 yuan; the retained earnings per share were 1.34 yuan; the net cash flow of operating cash per share was 0.03 yuan, and the net assets yield 2.14%.

Institutional investors held 8 billion 854 million 410 thousand and 600 shares of the industry, representing a decrease of 705 million 279 thousand and 100 shares compared with the beginning of the year. Among them, the social security fund held 106 million shares at the end of the first quarter, 35 million 90 thousand and 100 shares lower than the beginning of the year, and the insurance company held 64 million 872 thousand and 100 shares at the end of the first quarter, 22 million 689 thousand and 800 shares lower than the beginning of the year; QFFI at the end of the first quarter held 12 million 321 thousand and 700 shares, 560 thousand and 800 shares higher than the beginning of the year.

Wan Lian Securities believes that the signs of domestic sales rebound in textile and garment industry have shown signs of rising at the cost of volume increase: domestic sales are showing signs of warmer trend, but there are repeated; the price of clothing terminal is slowing down, the space for price increase is narrowed, the growth momentum of brand clothing is expected to turn to volume increase, and the order growth rate in autumn and winter in 2012 will be slower than that in the same period last year, but it remains relatively stable.

If the export situation improves and the industry inflection point appears in the second half of this year, we can pay attention to the opportunity of valuing and repairing the leading stocks in the textile manufacturing industry with strong and undervalued value, and continue to look for men's wear and outdoor products.

Plate, home textiles and leisure wear plate after the early adjustment, the improvement of the fundamentals of the industry will bring certain opportunities; focus on nine Mu Wang (601566, stock bar), seven wolves, good news birds, lounge shares, Pathfinder (300005, stock bar), search in special and fuanna (002327, stock bar).

Huatai Securities (601688, stock bar) believes that the industry is actively coexisting with consumption factors.

But the most fundamental determinant is whether the macro-economy can reach the bottom, and whether the growth rate of residents' income will decline in the two quarter after a year's decline. These two points have considerable uncertainty.

In the second half of this year, with the fall of raw material prices, the cost pressures of garment enterprises will be reduced, and space for promotional sales will be opened. The brand clothing enterprises will increase their sales promotion efforts, which will stimulate the sales of clothing, and the gross profit margins of brand enterprises can be maintained and the channel profits will be squeezed.

At present, the valuation of the clothing sector is at the bottom of history. In the long run, the investment value of excellent management companies has emerged.

Give industry "overweight" rating.