Quick Success And Instant Benefit Hinder China'S Electricity Providers From Exceeding The US Power To Hide Hidden Worries.

Even without national day, singles day...

E-commerce retail has also become the easiest way to call the "Carnival" Internet behavior.

A research report from Boston (BCG) pointed out that the retail sales of e-commerce in China will surpass the US in 2015, which is more like a shot in the arm.

Awesome

Two data have been particularly dazzling in recent days: internationally known.

Boston's investigation report predicts that by 2015, China's online shopping market share will increase to 2 trillion yuan, surpassing the United States as the world's largest online consumer country.

To support the above prediction, Boston pointed out that as the largest number of Internet users in the world, China has 145 million online shoppers, 170 million only to the United States, and will continue to grow.

These analysts believe that in China, almost half of the urban population has been involved in online shopping, and thanks to the increase in personal income, China's Internet sales will continue to rise in the next five years.

Almost at the same time, China's Ministry of industry and information issued the "electronic certification service industry" 12th Five-Year "development plan" predicts that by 2015, the annual volume of e-commerce pactions (including enterprise B2B trade in addition to online retail) will exceed 18 trillion yuan.

Wang Xingxing, founder of the group buying website, has also pondered over the spending power of Chinese online shoppers. He said, "China has an annual income of more than 30 thousand yuan per person per year, and only 1000 yuan is spent on the Internet. Where are the other more than 30 thousand flowers? Can it be changed again?"

How big is the gap between Chinese and American online retailing? According to data from a number of domestic analysts, such as China Electronic Commerce Research Center, Analysys International and Ai Rui consulting, last year, the size of China's online retail business was basically around 500 billion yuan, while the figures disclosed by the US Department of Commerce showed that the total retail sales in the US last year were about $170 billion, just over 1 trillion yuan.

However, the growth rate of the online shopping market is very different now.

Years of data from domestic statistical institutions show that the size of China's online shopping market was 31 billion 200 million yuan in 2006, 59 billion 400 million yuan in 2007, 120 billion yuan in 2008, 263 billion yuan in 2009, and 500 billion yuan in 2010, which basically maintained a doubling of growth.

The growth rate of the US online shopping market has been hovering between 10%-20%.

Some analysts joked: "according to the logic of doubling growth, by 2015, the scale of China's online shopping market is not 2 trillion yuan, but 8 trillion yuan, but this is impossible. The growth rate has begun to slow down to a certain extent. Even so, to reach 2 trillion yuan by 2015 is the most conservative estimate. Whether it can surpass the United States depends on whether the growth of us online shopping can generate miracles."

According to AI consulting, the online shopping market grew by 73.4% in the three quarter of this year, while the online shopping growth rate released by Analysys International in the three quarter was only 58%.

Onlookers still hold bullish vision.

But investors and spectators are full of confidence.

"There are so many Internet users in China that any Internet business model will become the first industry in China sooner or later."

Hong Bo, a well-known Internet commentator, believes that the number of Chinese Internet users is the largest in the world, and that e-commerce is beyond the United States.

"According to the current development trend, it is not the fastest way to surpass the United States in terms of turnover, but only faster."

Hong Bo believes that in addition to the absolute number of netizens base, the overall high growth of China's economy is also conducive to the environment. "Residents have income growth, good economic situation, there will be online consumer demand, and the developed countries such as the United States are basically in the stage of economic slowdown or even stagnation, and online shopping growth is bound to match the economic environment."

Hong Bo pointed out that in the case of equal purchasing power, the distribution pattern of Chinese business also determines that Internet retailing is more popular among Internet users than in Europe and America.

He believes that the proportion of cities and towns in Europe and the United States is relatively high, and WAL-MART and other large entities are over covered. In addition to big cities, China is seriously short of large business super facilities in the three or four tier cities. E-commerce can make up for the geographical limitations and meet the consumer demands of these three or four cities and even rural Internet users.

Zhu Xiaohu, a Jinsha River venture partner, firmly believed last year that "in the next two or three years, China's e-commerce market can surpass the scale of the US e-commerce market."

He explained: "this is not a hypothesis, and there are many decisive factors in it, because the entire Internet industry has entered the era of e-commerce. Almost all Internet bigwigs and entrepreneurs are optimistic about this field."

{page_break}

According to Zhu Xiaohu's point of view, China has a lot of productive capacity. If China's Internet Co has customers, it will be very easy to find OEM manufacturers under the line to help you with production.

"This is not possible in the US market."

He also pointed out that over the past decades, China's commercial brands, such as Lining and Anta, have expanded the scope of their influence. It is not perfect to rely on offline promotion. Online will be an important channel.

In the eyes of Hong Bo and Zhu Xiaohu, in addition to the big environmental factors, capital enthusiasm and entrepreneurial enthusiasm are also one of the driving factors for China's online shopping market to surpass the US market sooner or later.

"In the US, the top ten e-commerce retailers are Amazon and eBay, which are pure Internet Co, others are controlled by traditional enterprise online channels, and Chinese market, pure Internet companies and traditional enterprises are highly enthusiastic, and the competition is more diversified."

Zhu Xiaohu told reporters.

Li Daishan, an e-commerce expert and leisurely CEO, said that in the past two years, venture capital has injected more than 30 billion yuan into China's electricity supplier industry.

The Ministry of commerce data show that in 2010, China's e-commerce information, trading and technology services reached 2.5 enterprises.

China's online shopping high growth trap

Risk one: distortion of business philosophy

"The situation is very good, the risk is not small," Hong Bo thinks, for a single enterprise, the domestic e-commerce has not done particularly well.

Because the whole domestic e-commerce still has many deficiencies.

"For the first time is the problem of ideology," Hong Bo explained. The Chinese enterprises that imitate European and American e-commerce mode are relatively primitive in terms of technology and group buying.

"We are all eager for quick success and instant benefits. If we take the money, we want to circle users and circle manufacturers."

He believes that, especially the traditional enterprises follow the trend of the pursuit of e-commerce problems, "why the United States Bon buy network why did not do well, because the concept of electricity providers as a supplement and channel, not enough preparation, nor well coordinated the relationship between online and offline."

Hong Bo insists that e-commerce is a business mode that can completely replace offline pactions. If these enterprises are only playing the nature of tickets, they can not do their best to do business.

In China's current business environment, enterprises that seriously focus on e-commerce will also make mistakes. "Frequent changes in internal rules will hurt sellers and buyers. Under the steady state of rules, there will also be a vicious competition between dealers and offline dealers. Finally, they will attack their own development." he pointed out that these improper developments involve a core value: credit system.

The imperfect credit system will affect the relationship with suppliers, the relationship with consumers, and the relationship between logistics providers and capital investors.

Risk two: market concentration, enterprises become heavier

Chen Shou Shou, an analyst with Analysys International, pointed out that the cold of investment market and the reduction of market delivery will also slow down the growth of electricity providers, which directly leads to a decline in user activity.

He analyzed that the growth rate of the C2C platform slowed down first, while the growth of B2C was better, but the scale was small, and it was difficult to drive the growth of the whole market.

Multi data show that last year, about 500000000000 Yuan online shopping retail sales of 400 billion yuan is the contribution of C2C platform Taobao network, the market is too concentrated.

Chen Hu, vice president of Le Tao network, pointed out that in the front-end of online shopping, the mobile shopping market with huge potential is facing the limitations of mobile payment.

In the back-end of online shopping, logistics distribution is a short-term constraint.

Recently, CEO has been behind the domestic logistics and distribution system because of the "empty box" incident.

Therefore, at present, including Jingdong, Taobao, good buy and other enterprises are planning to build their own logistics system, but this also hampered a lot of capital and human resources.

"E-commerce is originally a light company, but it is getting heavier and heavier," which is the fact that practitioners of electronic business are rather helpless.

Risk three: management team unrest

At the specific level of enterprise management, F group CEO lin ning believes that the most important thing is the enterprise team and corporate culture, and the vicious incidents such as layoffs, counterfeit goods and digging feet are all caused by the blind expansion of enterprise group buying and quick success and instant benefit.

Zhu Xiaohu pointed out the awkwardness of e-commerce: digging up feet and other malicious competition constantly affecting the normal operation of enterprises, but the entire e-commerce industry is facing a shortage of talent.

Some experts predict that in the next ten years, the gap of electricity providers will be as high as 2 million.

Insiders told reporters that this year, the top executives of various websites are constantly in turmoil. The number of "dug executives" as the main means of public relations attacks is also high.

In the group buying industry, there is often a case where a website leader leads a whole regional team to go out.