China's Export Slowdown Has Intensified, And Foreign Trade Policy Will Not Tighten Until The End Of Next Year.

The slowdown in exports has intensified, and the uncertainty in the US and Europe has kept the policymakers vigilant against export trends. Downside risk And do the worst.

In his speech recently, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council referred to "steady growth" as the first mention of the three pillars of foreign trade, which was interpreted as tightening the export tax rebates which were widely expected before. Regulation Policy will slow down 。

In October 13th, on the opening day of the 110 China Import and Export Fair (hereinafter referred to as the "Canton Fair"), the General Administration of Customs announced that China's exports increased by 17.1% in September, down from 24.5% last month and market expectations. Imports grew by 20.9% over the same period last year, about 10 percentage points lower than last month, which is also lower than that of the market. Expect 。

From the first eight months of this year, the slowdown in export growth has also increased significantly.

This also makes policy makers worry that such a downturn is not a trend.

On the 15 day, Wang Chao, Vice Minister of Commerce of China, admitted at the gap of the Canton Fair that the traditional Chinese export market is not very good. From the current data, the growth rate has been slowing down for several months. Although the situation of the whole year is not well assessed yet, the Ministry of Commerce has made the worst plan and is making great efforts.

On the 13 day, when Wen Jiabao presided over the forum held by the head of the foreign trade enterprise in Guangzhou, he pointed out that at present and for some time to come, foreign trade should focus on the three pillars of "steady growth, structural adjustment and balanced promotion".

Some foreign trade people have read the meaning of policy change from the Premier Wen's speech and gained considerable confidence. Careful, they found that "steady growth" has become the first of the three centers.

　　 Prospect of external demand Pessimism

A person familiar with the matter revealed to the newspaper that during his research in Guangdong from 13 to 14, Wen Jiabao pointed out that his basic judgment is that from now on to the future, China's foreign trade situation is already quite grim.

And what the exhibitors of the Canton Fair are most worried about is the uncertainty brought about by the uncertain economic prospects of the US and Europe, and the uncertainty of the future of monetary, fiscal and trade policies.

This reporter was informed that from a large foreign trade group to the Guangzhou Trade Fair conducted a preliminary study of the survey, enterprises generally feel that there is a sharp decline in orders. In the next few months, export growth will continue to slow down.

Da Hang Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. is a high-end bicycle export enterprise, 80%~90% products for the European and American markets. The company said to the newspaper that although it had assembled factories in Romania and Macao, it avoided the US and Europe. Dumping risk But the company now has a feeling that customers are cautious about placing orders.

"There are not many new customers, and some old customers are now cautious and conservative. Their orders are the same as last year's actual sales volume, not as much as they used to be. It also tends to split the long list into short lists, such as the last one in the next year, and now it will be split into two lists. Guo Chuan, director of the international market manager of Da Hang technology, told this newspaper.

She also said that the outlook for European and American export markets is pessimistic, and that the most direct impact is exchange rate risk. During the recent period, the yuan appreciated faster against the US dollar and the euro fluctuated 0.5~0.6 in three months. {page_break}

Even the leading enterprises such as Haier, 1~8 export growth in Europe and the United States market slowed down from 60%~70% in the past year to about 40%. Li Pan, the overseas sales manager, told the paper that although the number of orders from the European and American markets has not declined significantly, the political and economic factors in Europe and the United States will inevitably affect the export of the company in the coming months.

"Next year, the two regions of Europe and the United States will have an election year. Heads of state will be very cautious about using economic stimulus policies, which will affect demand." Li Pan said.

The export markets of Shanghai Phoenix import and Export Co., Ltd. are mostly Southeast Asian, Africa, Middle East and other emerging markets, but also feel the chill. The export situation is worsening, which accounts for about half of the sales volume.

Yu Yuefeng, general manager of the company, said that since the beginning of this year, due to tight macroeconomic policies, the small and medium-sized enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which supply parts to the company, are facing financing difficulties. RMB appreciation, inflationary pressure and rising labor costs have also caused great trouble to enterprises.

　　 The policy will not tighten until the end of next year.

The decision making level has taken the continuous pressure of the export industry into consideration. Therefore, "steady growth" has become a priority policy direction. In the context of continued tightening of foreign trade policy for many years, this "steady" policy has become a signal of policy fine-tuning.

After the financial crisis, China's foreign trade went out of a low and high way last year. Make the decision level judge that the export is also quite competitive, and resolute the determination to adjust the structure.

Earlier this year, Yao Jian, a former spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, predicted that the trade surplus in 2010 would be reduced by 100 billion US dollars on the basis of the previous year's export trend, which is less than 100 billion dollars.

But since then, China's exports have gradually emerged from the haze, and even exceeded market expectations in the second half of the year, with a surplus of 183 billion 100 million US dollars.

People close to the decision-making level told this newspaper that since the beginning of this year, a series of tightening policies have been adopted based on the control of inflation, and a large number of foreign trade enterprises have felt the pressure. Another view is that China's trade imbalance is due to too many exports. Under this influence, this year, the state has made a series of research on processing trade policy and export tax rebate policy. It has also been circulating that the new export tax rebate tightening policy will be introduced before October 1st.

Such a policy oriented pressure on export enterprises uneasy, also aroused their memories of the days before the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, under the influence of this trend of thought, a series of policies, including reducing export tax rebate, were issued. The financial tsunami accelerated the closure of a batch of foreign trade enterprises.

In his speech, Premier Wen pointed out: "we will combine the expansion of imports with stable exports, and strive to promote a basically balanced balance of payments. China has always adhered to an open trade policy, which attaches importance to exports and imports and does not deliberately pursue trade surpluses.

At least in the eyes of these people, this shows that the top executives are determined to push the trade balance by expanding imports rather than pressing exports.

This Premier Wen's research and speech in Guangdong is understood by the people as follows: in the remaining months and next year, the foreign trade policy will basically remain stable, including processing trade, export tax rebate, finance, insurance and exchange rate policy. Foreign trade enterprises can also gain considerable confidence.

"At least, those companies that are expected to come to the Canton Fair can give up their hearts and dare to sign the bill." One of them said with a smile.