PTA Futures Or Fell To 6000 Yuan / Ton &Nbsp; Downward Breakthrough May Be Larger.

After a wave of weakness,

Although the PX quotation was released in a high profile in July ($1000-1030 / ton), PX will continue to weaken in the future.

The Sinopec industry will emerge more large-scale integrated petrochemical devices, which will enable PX capacity to continue passive expansion.

At present, the main export areas of PX, such as Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, are both out.

Under such circumstances, China's petrochemical system is confident that foreign PX and other petrochemical products will be expelled from the country.

Obviously, China's PX production has the advantage of cost and profit. In the next 3 to 5 years, the competition of PX market will become more intense.

Many leading manufacturers in the industry predict that the PX will fall to $800 / ton in the three quarter, when the breakeven point of PTA will be 5200 yuan / ton.

Copenhagen's carbon emission reduction target has been put into effect, but the price increase of polyester products does not mean that PTA will rise in price.

Polyester and textile industry bear the brunt of the emission reduction plan, while the price of clothing industry has a 10% increase compared with the crisis period, and the production capacity has not decreased.

The reduction of polyester and textile production will inevitably cause the clothing industry to rush to purchase raw materials, and the lower the sensitivity to the cost of raw materials, the more direct the reason for the rise in polyester and textile prices.

at present

{page_break}

And crude oil is not enough.

In addition, the appreciation of the RMB will affect China's economic growth mode, and its impact on PTA is very significant.

Some professionals predict that the RMB will appreciate by 20% in the next three years, which will restrict exports and encourage imports.

For PTA, raw material imports are cheaper. Under the condition that PTA futures prices remain unchanged, PTA's profits are even more substantial.

In addition, domestic PTA's future excess capacity exports will be even more difficult. Correspondingly, imports will become more powerful, and the cost of imports of polyester products will also become cheaper.

In the context of the big petrochemical industry, the PTA device will be the same as the single PX device, and the challenges ahead will be unprecedented.

In June, the contract price of the PTA contract was issued, and the factory closing price was more than 7300 yuan / ton. Considering the three months' acceptance and sales discount, the actual closing price was only 7100 yuan / ton.

In the same period, the PTA futures delivery settlement price in June was also 7100 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the PTA futures price rose to 7500 yuan / ton on the basis of the general inflation pattern of the appreciation of RMB appreciation, which led to a large number of short selling discs.

This is the current futures price. For those polyester manufacturers who get too many contracts, there is also a practical demand for selling value on PTA futures.

The reason for the current market divergence is that most of the investors are optimistic about the polyester stocking in the year, plus the current absolute price is lower. The bearer thinks that PX will continue to be weak, so that PTA has a process of profiteering. It is generally considered that the profit margin of 500-600 yuan / ton is reasonable.

At present, the price of the TA009 contract falls to 7300 yuan / ton, if the 7000 yuan / ton is the important support position, the downward space is not particularly big.

However, investors can consider shorting the 2011 contract because the macro, industry and market mindset generally focus on empty forward contracts.

Recently, some mainstream manufacturers believe that PTA futures will fall to 6000 yuan / ton, which is based on the PX price falling to 800 US dollars / ton, but this situation is not in the present, but in the further period.

(alone peak)