Hangzhou Real Estate Market Regulation "Three Successive Developments" In A Month Zhejiang Opens A New Round Of "Supply And Demand Two-Way Regulation"

On August 5, an ordinary Thursday, Wang Xiaomei, a new Hangzhou native, experienced a small setback in her life. Half a month ago, Wang Xiaomei had just prepared a down payment for a certain dish. Early in the morning of August 5, Hangzhou suddenly announced the purchase restriction and upgrading. One of the "Hangzhou rules is that you can only buy a house after two years of social security before you have settled down for less than five years", which directly cut off Wang Xiaomei's idea of buying a house, who only paid social security in Hangzhou for one year.

Compared with Wang Xiaomei, Lu lighting may be the real target of the new deal. As soon as he had a good contract with a college student, he was stopped by the new deal. Lu lighting lost tens of thousands of yuan of middleman benefit fee and liquidated damages. Lu's investment plan ran aground.

According to Hangzhou's new policy on August 5, upgrading the "purchase restriction" threshold: if you have been settled for less than five years, you must have completed two years' social security before you can buy a house (there was no requirement for social security before), and it is necessary for non local household registration families to have 4 years' social security before they can buy a suite (previously, it required 2 years). In addition, the regulation also includes no house family, talent family lottery rules, and those who submit false materials can not participate in registration within three years.

This is the third time that Hangzhou has issued new policies on regulation and control within a month, and the regulation has gradually increased: first, increase the supply of houses with common property rights, then issue new regulations on land auction to reduce the premium rate of land auction, and finally start from the demand side to regulate and control, so as to ease the pressure of primary housing supply. At the same time, several third tier cities in Zhejiang, such as Huzhou, Jinhua and Shaoxing, have successively issued new policies on regulation and control.

Yihan think tank pointed out that Hangzhou's regulatory situation is gradually opening up, and regulation is gradually approaching the two-way regulation of supply and demand. It is expected that in the next three quarters, there will be a certain degree of correction in the whole market, and the issuance of hot plate pre-sale certificates in some urban areas may also be accelerated in order to implement the effect of the new policy.

Under the premise that housing is not fried, local governments have gradually strengthened control. Hangzhou's regulation and control is also the result of the increasing pressure of regulation and control under the background of gradually upgrading the regulation of surrounding cities.

Hangzhou control Sanlian

"Hangzhou is not very friendly to young people." According to people familiar with the matter, the high price makes it difficult for new customers to buy a house. More than a month ago, on the eve of the opening of a red market, the relevant government departments conducted a strict screening and examination on the qualification of house buyers, and some house buyers with college students' identity were rejected because of insufficient information.

Hangzhou industry insiders pointed out that after the new deal, some potential buyers were kicked out of the market, and the number of "room tickets" in the market has become less, but the difference between primary and secondary house prices still exists, and the market heat is not dispelling so fast.

In recent years, with the rapid growth of population inflow in Hangzhou, especially the increasing number of college students who are qualified to buy houses every year, it is common for tenants to make profits by using college students to hold real estate on behalf of them. As a result, the lottery winning rate of Hangzhou's first-hand houses has reached a record low, accelerating the difference between the first-hand and second-hand house prices in disguised form.

It can be predicted that in the next few months, the heat and difficulty of commercial housing lottery in Hangzhou will be significantly reduced. In addition, the tightening of financial policy in the past two months has affected the mortgage loans of commercial housing and second-hand housing, and the market heat has cooled down.

In fact, there are a large number of red plate pre-sale certificates in Hangzhou, which are not allowed to be issued. That is, they are afraid that under the price limit, the difference between the first and second-hand house prices in Hangzhou will be further widened. According to Yihan think tank, since July, the space for policy regulation has gradually opened up. If the first quarter was a small trial in terms of purchase restriction and sales restriction, then the second quarter will focus on capital side regulation. Although the capital side regulation is tight and tight, the hot market in Hangzhou is still in the low qualification threshold (whether it is land or sales market), So the overall effect may not be as good as expected.

Under continuous regulation and control, Hangzhou second-hand housing market has significantly slowed down. In July, 6314 second-hand housing units were sold in Hangzhou. Compared with 10029 units in April, 9013 units in May and 7539 units in June, the trading volume fell again, reaching the "freezing point" in the same period of the past five years. According to the statistics of the third-party institutions, except Lin'an and Fuyang, only 4608 units were sold in July in Hangzhou eight districts. There are signs that both the quantity and price of houses in hot areas and school districts are falling.

Jinhua property market in miniature

It is not only in Shanghai and Hangzhou that asset appreciation and circle change can be realized through the holding of real estate. As a native of Jinhua, Liu Tao (pseudonym) has witnessed the volatility of Jinhua's real estate market in the past year.

Jinhua's second-hand house prices have generally risen from 1% to 2% year-on-year before. Since October 2020, the year-on-year increase of second-hand houses has risen from about 2% to more than 8%.

As a real estate enterprise said, Zhejiang Province is rich in people, and the purchasing power of Jinhua's local customers can support the whole market; Hangzhou's customers will hardly spill over to the third tier cities. They will only choose other strong second tier cities of the same type instead of going to the third tier cities. For example, around Hangzhou city group, or Lin'an, which is not restricted to purchase. Like Yiwu, Yongkang, Dongyang and other counties, the purchasing power of small owners of private enterprises can not be ignored.

Jinhua's population inflow is second only to Hangzhou. According to the seventh census data, the permanent population of Zhejiang Province will be 64.5676 million in 2020, an increase of 18.63% compared with the population of the sixth census, far exceeding the national average of 5.38%. Among them, Jinhua's population growth rate is 31.5%, ranking second in the province.

Last year, Jinhua's large increase in demolition scale, the rise in the popularity of the local auction market, and the frequent refreshing of land prices have become the direct cause of the rise in house prices. The above-mentioned people pointed out that the possibility of Jinhua's panic purchase is far greater than that of speculation. In addition, the land market is active and the land king appears repeatedly, so the anxiety of consumers is growing day by day“ Some people work hard to earn hundreds of thousands of yuan a year, while others earn hundreds of thousands or even millions by buying a house and doing nothing for a year. This will always produce a butterfly effect. "

At present, there is no policy for the counties and cities under Jinhua, but referring to Hangzhou, it is possible to intensify the efforts according to the market conditions.

In fact, a number of real estate enterprises that have entered Jinhua said to the 21st century economic report that due to the in-depth regulation and control, including the implementation of policies such as sales restriction, price restriction, construction filing process and loan restriction, Jinhua real estate enterprises are generally faced with difficulties in obtaining land, making money and lengthening sales cycle.

House price bubble in third and fourth tier cities

Not only Jinhua, but many counties in Zhejiang have higher housing prices than many capital cities in the mainland. Since last year, all of Zhejiang Province has increased to varying degrees. Jiaxing's house price will rank the seventh in China in 2020, and the house prices of some second-hand housing districts have exceeded 30000 yuan / m2; Lishui, which has just entered the third tier city, had an average price of about 10000 yuan / square meter before, but now it has exceeded 20000 yuan / square meter.

Many counties in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have reached the level of 15000-25000 yuan / m2. In 2020, the influx of funds into Huzhou, which is considered as the depression of housing prices in Zhejiang Province, leads to the rise of housing prices of high-quality areas in Huzhou to 22000-25000 yuan / m2.

Many second-hand housing has reached a high level at present, but "although the market is carrying on, it is still necessary to regulate and control, housing does not fry, can not explode." Said the person.

One background is that as a demonstration area of common prosperity, Zhejiang has relatively good conditions in all aspects, including the three indicators of "urban-rural gap, regional development, and degree of wealth". Once the housing price soars, the negative impact of economic and social problems caused by it can not be predicted.

"Housing without speculation" is gradually advancing and deepening throughout the country. Previously, the regulation of purchase and sales restriction in the first and second tier cities has been very strict, and it is constantly patching up; 2、 Third tier cities have also stepped up the regulation and control of the property market. For example, Jinhua issued a new policy on August 2, including "three-year sale, implementation of the reference price of second-hand housing, and optimization of the land auction rules". Shaoxing released the second-hand house price reference mechanism of Jinghu New District on August 4.

Also on August 5, Beijing issued the announcement on further improving the policy of restricting the purchase of commercial housing, which clearly controlled the false divorce; Chengdu issued the notice on strengthening the gift management and optimizing the review sequence of house purchase qualification to control the donation behavior.

It is worth mentioning that Jinhua is the first city to introduce regulation after the interview of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development. Some analysts predict that Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Quanzhou, Huizhou and other cities that have been interviewed by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development will have similar policies to those of Taiwan.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, thinks that real estate regulation and control will be more detailed and targeted in the second half of the year. Affected by this, the real estate market cooling probability of the first and second tier key cities and overheated third and fourth tier cities increased in the second half of the year.