National Bureau Of Statistics Interprets China Purchasing Manager Index In March

Original title: Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of Statistics

China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and non manufacturing business activity index both rose in March

- Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of service industry survey center of National Bureau of statistics, interprets China purchasing manager index in March 2021

On March 31, 2021, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 51.9%, 56.3% and 55.3%, respectively, 1.3%, 4.9 and 3.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. China's economy continued to expand in general.

1. The index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry has risen steadily

After the Spring Festival, the enterprise production accelerated to recover, and the manufacturing boom picked up significantly in March. Among the 21 industries surveyed, PMI of 17 industries is above the boom and bust line, and the prosperity has expanded compared with last month. Main features of the month:

First, both sides of supply and demand recovered simultaneously. The production index and new order index were 53.9% and 53.6%, respectively, higher than 2.0% and 2.1% of the previous month, indicating that the pace of expansion of production and demand in the manufacturing industry has accelerated. In terms of industry situation, the two indexes of non-metallic mineral products, special equipment, electrical machinery equipment, computer communication electronic equipment and instruments are all higher than 55.0%, and the prosperity of production and demand of related industries has increased rapidly.

Second, import and export return to the boom zone. After the Spring Festival, the domestic market production and demand release accelerated, and the world's major economies continued to recover. This month, the new export order index and import index were 51.2% and 51.1%, respectively, higher than 2.4% and 1.5% of the previous month, of which the import index rose to the highest point in recent years.

Third, the prosperity of large, medium and small enterprises has rebounded. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 52.7%, 51.6% and 50.4%, respectively, 0.5%, 2.0 and 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The production and operation conditions of enterprises of different sizes have improved. Although the prosperity level of small enterprises is lower than that of large and medium-sized enterprises, the expected index of production and operation activities has risen to 58.4%, indicating that small enterprises have increased confidence in the recent market development.

Fourth, the new kinetic energy leads the situation well. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry were 53.9% and 52.9%, respectively, 2.0% and 1.0% higher than that of manufacturing industry as a whole. The leading role of new kinetic energy in the development of manufacturing industry continued to show. At the same time, the employment index of the two industries rose to 51.2% and 50.5% respectively, indicating that the employment demand of related industries has increased.

Fifthly, the price index has risen to a high in recent years. Affected by the continuous high operation of international commodity prices, the purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in this month were 69.4% and 59.8%, respectively, higher than 2.7% and 1.3% of the previous month. From the industry situation, the purchase price index of raw materials in petroleum processing, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, general equipment, special equipment and other industries is higher than 75.0%, and the ex factory price index of chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry is higher than 70.0%, and the price pressure of related industries has increased Big. At the same time, some enterprises surveyed reported that due to the repeated epidemic situation abroad and the poor international trade and economic cooperation, some imported raw materials were in short supply recently, the prices increased significantly and the delivery cycle was prolonged.

2. The index of non manufacturing business activities rebounded significantly

In March, the non manufacturing business activity index was 56.3%, 4.9 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the pace of non manufacturing industry expansion accelerated.

The service industry has risen to a higher level of prosperity. The business activity index of the service industry was 55.2%, 4.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, indicating that with the consolidation of the epidemic prevention and control achievements and the continuous release of consumer demand, the service industry has accelerated its recovery. From the perspective of industry situation, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunication, radio and television satellite transmission service, Internet software and information technology service, monetary and financial service and other industries was operating at a high level of 60.0%, and the total business volume increased rapidly; the business activity index of accommodation, leasing, business services, residential services and other industries which were greatly affected by the local epidemic situation at the beginning of the year The business situation of the industry has improved significantly. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities in the service industry is 62.9%, which has been in the high boom range of more than 60.0% for two consecutive months, indicating that service enterprises continue to be optimistic about the development of the market in the near future.

The construction industry returns to the high boom zone. In March, the weather turned warm, enterprises concentrated on construction, and the construction process of the construction industry accelerated. The business activity index of the construction industry this month was 7.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, rising to 62.3%. Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering and construction industry was 65.7%, a sharp increase of 11.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, indicating that with the effective implementation of policies such as the overall promotion of infrastructure construction, the industrial production activities have been accelerated.

Third, the comprehensive PMI output index expanded rapidly

In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 55.3%, 3.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of China's enterprises in general accelerated this month. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 53.9% and 56.3% respectively.