Interpretation: CPI And PPI Continue To Fall In September 2020

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (Industrial producer price index) data for September 2020. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

　 1. CPI continued to fall in both month on month and year-on-year growth

In September, all localities actively implemented the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" policies and normalized epidemic prevention and control measures, and the overall market supply and demand situation was stable. On a month on month basis, CPI rose 0.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 0.4%, 1.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which affected the rise of CPI by about 0.09%. In food, due to the superimposed influence of season, festival and other factors, the price of fresh fruit decreased from 0.4% in the previous month to 7.3%; affected by seasonal factors and rainfall in some areas, the price of fresh vegetables continued to rise by 2.4%, 4.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; with the continuous recovery of pig production, the continuous improvement of inventory, the increase of pork supply, the increase of pork supply, the price increased by 1 2% to 1.6%. Non food prices rose 0.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.14 percentage points. Among non food items, with the gradual recovery of entertainment consumption, the number of film viewers increased, and the price of movie tickets increased by 4.1%; the fees for extra-curricular education and some private schools increased, and the price of education services increased by 1.6%; the price of clothing rose by 0.9% in summer and autumn.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 1.7%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 7.9%, 3.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 1.69%. Among the food products, the price of pork rose by 25.5%, a sharp decrease of 27.1 percentage points compared with that of the previous month; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 17.2%, with an increase of 5.5 percentage points; the price of beef and mutton increased by 9.0% and 5.4%, respectively, with the increase falling by 5.4% and 4.3%; the price of fresh fruit decreased by 6.9%, and the decrease rate was narrowed by 12.9%; the price of eggs, chicken and duck decreased by 17.7%, 9.1% and 4.7% respectively, The decrease rates were increased by 5.3, 7.5 and 3.8 percentage points respectively. Non food prices were flat from a 0.1% rise last month. Among non food items, the prices of health care, education, culture and entertainment increased by 1.5%, 0.7%, 3.6% and 15.0% and 16.6% respectively. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, the same increase as last month.

It is estimated that among the 1.7% year-on-year increase in September, the tail raising effect of last year's price change was about 1.2%, and the impact of new price increase was about 0.5%.

　 2. The month on month increase of PPI continued to fall, with a slight increase in year-on-year decline

In September, domestic industrial production and demand recovered steadily, and the prices of industrial products continued to rise. On a month on month basis, PPI rose 0.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 0.2%, and the price of means of living decreased by 0.1% from up to down. According to the survey of 40 industrial sectors, there were 15 industrial sectors with price increase, 2 less than last month, 19 decreased, 1 increased, and 6 flat increased 1. Affected by the changes in international crude oil prices, the prices of oil related industries have changed from up to down. Among them, the prices of oil and natural gas extraction industry decreased by 2.3%, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 0.5%. Among other major industries, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry increased by 1.3% and decreased by 0.2%; nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 0.7%, decreased by 2.3%; agricultural and sideline food processing industry, increased by 0.2%, decreased by 0.4%. In addition, the prices of non-metallic mineral products industry, coal mining and washing industry increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the prices of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries decreased by 0.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 2.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 2.8%, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.2%; the price of means of living decreased by 0.1% from up to down. Among the major industries, agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 3.9% and decreased by 1.6%; nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry increased by 2.9% and decreased by 0.5%. Coal mining and washing industry decreased by 7.5% and 0.5% respectively, while non-metallic mineral products industry decreased by 2.3% and 0.2% respectively. The oil and natural gas exploitation industry decreased by 26.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points, while the oil, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 16.9% and expanded by 0.2%. In addition, ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry prices fell to flat from last month.

It is estimated that in the 2.1% year-on-year decline in September, the tail effect of last year's price change was 0, and the impact of new price increase was about - 2.1 percentage points.