Supply Has Not Increased Significantly, Supporting Ethylene Glycol Will Maintain A Volatile Market

After the international crude oil continued its strong performance, it began to fall down at the weekend, but naphtha and ethylene prices showed strong performance with obvious cost support; domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, but the volume was still limited, and the polyester end showed stable performance in the peak demand season; the price of ethylene glycol Market continued to go up, whether to continue to maintain, or to maintain the range fluctuation market, the following details.

Figure price trend of domestic ethylene glycol Market

Source: Longzhong information

In the near future, affected by the expected decline in imports of ethylene glycol, the main port in East China is expected to continue to go to storage in the first ten days of September before the new domestic production capacity has not been fully released, and the start-up of coal-based enterprises has not been significantly increased.

Overseas installation

Due to the impact of Hurricane weather in the United States, two ethylene glycol plants with a capacity of 280000 tons / year and 340000 tons / year were originally planned to restart at the end of last week, but the shutdown time of the above units has been extended, and the restart time is to be determined. In addition, the 700000 T / a ethylene glycol plant of Saudi Arabia's rabig refinery also shut down unexpectedly in late August. Planned maintenance is being carried out for the 350000 T / a unit of Dow in Canada, 360000 T / A in South Asia and 360000 T / A in Taiwan Province.

Inventory and pre arrival at main port

Therefore, the market has strong expectations for the decline of import volume in September. As of September 3, the ethylene glycol port inventory in East China's main port area is about 1.3765 million tons. It is estimated that the total amount of ethylene glycol delivered to the main ports in East China will be 204200 tons next week, including 118700 tons in Zhangjiagang, 12000 tons in Ningbo, 40000 tons in Taicang, 33500 tons in Jiangyin and 0 million tons in Shanghai. The arrival volume is neutral, but lower than the previous period. It is expected that the main port in East China will have a small stock market in the first ten days of September.

Downstream polyester demand

In the traditional peak season of "Jinjiu Yinshi", terminal orders have recovered. Although polyester terminal is facing high inventory, there are plans to restart some devices in the plant, such as Zhuocheng maintenance device and Yijin production reduction device. In addition, hengchaoxin device is expected to be put into operation within the week, and the polyester plant may start to keep an upward trend. Therefore, it is expected that the output of polyester industry will be 109.5% next week (0904-0910)- Around 1.1 million tons. In addition, antifreeze is in the peak season of production and marketing, and the overall performance of the demand side is good.

Domestic equipment

Table statistics of domestic ethylene glycol plant restart and new commissioning

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: Longzhong information

It can be seen from the above table that the number of maintenance enterprises in September decreased significantly compared with that in August, and the new devices will be put into the market in the middle and lower parts of September. The increase in this part of the volume just fills in the decrease in the import volume. If the interpretation is based on the current analysis, the overall supply in September will not change as a whole compared with August.

On the whole : the supply and demand side of ethylene glycol market in September is still expected to go to storage. Although there is expected to release new capacity in September, according to the actual progress, the contribution of actual production is estimated to be delayed to the middle and late ten days. However, on the import side, due to the opening of regional arbitrage window, centralized maintenance of North American devices and shipping schedule, it is expected that the import volume will decrease steadily by the end of the year. On the demand side, polyester production capacity increased by more than 900000 tons in September. Driven by the new release, the market rigid demand performance was stable, and the overall performance of supply and demand side was relatively benign. On the whole, the ethylene glycol range in September was relatively strong. In terms of rhythm, it is likely to give priority to the trend of first boosting and then restraining. Longzhong information predicts that the price reference range is 3850-4150 yuan / ton.