Increase The Pressure On The Property Market In The Second Quarter

The property market in the first half of 2020 can be described as "riding the wind and breaking the waves".

The first quarter suffered from the impact of the epidemic, the property market transactions nearly frozen. Since April, under the loose monetary policy and local deregulation policy, the real estate market represented by Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other places has warmed back into spring. The recovery is strong in May and June, and the housing prices in many cities have increased greatly.

As a long-term guideline of the central government, the keynote of "no speculation on housing and housing" should still be adhered to. In July, Hangzhou, Dongguan and Ningbo have introduced tightening measures. Although there are still divergences in the industry on whether the tightening of regulation and control in these cities is "tickling" or cooling down the real estate market effectively, the signal significance of policy hedging has already appeared, which has a great role in managing market expectations.

In the second half of the year, more hedging policies are expected to guide the property market towards a stable trend.

House prices are rising faster

According to the report of China Central Research Institute, the average price of newly-built residential buildings in 100 cities changed in a "V" shape in the first half of the year, with the lowest in February, and gradually increased from March. In June, the average price was 15461 yuan / m2, up 3.16% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.17% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, the cumulative increase of average price of second-hand housing in the first half of the year was 1.72%, showing an overheated trend.

Among them, the rising trend of house prices in the second quarter is particularly obvious. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in March, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased month on month, from 50 in April to 59 in May. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, pointed out that in the first half of the year, the cumulative price of most cities was not optimistic, and the data from January to June was at most flat or slightly increased. But it did rise in May.

After entering June, there are more active cities, especially Ningbo, Nanjing, Chengdu, Hangzhou and other cities. And the most noteworthy Wuhan market also has a significant stabilizing performance, with a significant month on month rise. According to the national housing prices, the highest in June.

In the first half of the year, Shenzhen property market has become a national hot spot for many times. According to the data of Zhongyuan in Shenzhen, 3343 new housing units were sold in June, up 6.4% month on month; the transaction area was 336000 square meters, up 11.5% month on month. After four years, the number of second-hand houses "broke 10000 units" again. In June, a total of 10594 units were sold, up 23.9% month on month, returning to the bull market level in March 2016.

According to the data of China Real Estate Association, the average price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen broke through the 70000 mark in June, reaching 74929 yuan / square meter. The average price was more than 20% higher than that in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, or even twice as much as that in Guangzhou next door. Compared with the end of last year, the average price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen was 14.37% higher than that at the end of last year.

In addition to Shenzhen, Hangzhou was the second star city with soaring heat in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, 68399 new houses were sold in Hangzhou, with a total transaction value of 2013.3 billion yuan. Among them, 19528 units were sold in June, the highest value of new houses in a single month in three years; in the first half of the year, 43000 second-hand houses were sold, up 4.02% compared with 41400 units last year, and 8.77% higher than 39600 units in the second half of 2019.

Dongguan is one of the surprise cities in this round of rising. Since April, the prices of new and second-hand houses in Dongguan have risen, and the volume of transactions is still high. Some owners of residential areas have joined hands to "control the price" to increase the price, which has a strong atmosphere of speculation.

Behind the rise in house prices is the pressure of economic downturn in the first quarter that local governments have relaxed regulation and control of the real estate market. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real estate, the total number of real estate regulation policies in the first half of the year was 304 times, which was basically relaxed. The policies of supervision of developers' pre-sale funds and the settlement of talents stimulated the recovery of the real estate market and the entry of demand.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House think tank center, said that the main reason for the rise in the property market was the loose funding and strong speculation atmosphere in some cities. In cities like Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Dongguan, the structure of supply and demand is tight, and house prices are expected to rise. Price limits create upside down, which enlarges demand, and a vicious circle appears in the market.

Multi City tightening regulation

Under the pressure of rising house prices, many local governments began to pour cold water on the hot property market.

On July 2, Hangzhou took the lead in tightening the regulation and introduced the "rocking restriction", that is, a family buying a house can only participate in the lottery of one project at the same time, inclining to the "no house family", and the proportion of housing security is not less than 50%; in addition, families with high-level talents give priority to buying houses, and the sales are limited for five years.

The purpose of these new policies is to restrict arbitrage speculators from entering the market and cool down the property market.

The property market in Dongguan has been tightened. The price of new houses in the same area shall not increase more than 10% in three months, and the upper limit of fine decoration house price is 20000 yuan / m2. In addition, we also cracked down on the behavior of hoarding sales and changing names within the property market to curb speculation in the property market.

Ningbo followed closely. On the evening of July 6, Ningbo issued the "ten" new policies to stabilize the property market, mainly including expanding the scope of purchase restrictions and strengthening the housing loan audit. It is worth noting that Ningbo will also control the rise of house prices by strictly controlling land prices.

Kerry pointed out that compared with the policies of Hangzhou and Dongguan, Ningbo's policies cover the widest range, covering the real estate market and the local market; moreover, the policy has been strengthened relatively greatly, involving purchase restriction and upgrading, and strict control of land price, which is basically "fist to meat".

Hangzhou, Dongguan and Ningbo are all the cities where the house prices rose greatly in the first half of the year and the property market is relatively hot. The central government has repeatedly stressed that "housing does not stir fry", and the local government has also taken measures to control the situation.

Yan Yuejin said that the tightening of these local policies has released the current regulatory guidance, which is not a complete stimulus to real estate. Some cities with hot spots and price speculation will upgrade their control. If there is speculation and other phenomena, policy upgrading and tightening are high probability events.

However, Zhang Dawei believes that, so far, the tightening policies in Dongguan and Hangzhou have been more "itchy", only adjusting the lottery and price limit policies, without affecting the market's purchasing leverage. So the effect is limited. In particular, Hangzhou's new policy has little impact on the market, and it is expected that the market will continue to rise in the second half of the year.

In Shenzhen, the most popular property market, although the industry has strong expectations for the introduction of regulation and control, the government departments have not made relevant actions so far. At the beginning of July, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development went to Shenzhen for investigation and held a forum. However, there was no news that Shenzhen housing and urban rural development and other departments would further tighten regulation and control.

Kerui analysts believe that some of the recent tightening measures are mainly to prevent the market from overheating, and other hot cities may follow suit, but there should be no large-scale tightening. In the later stage, the local policy was still loose.

Zhongyuan pointed out that from the perspective of market trend, the real estate market depends on the weather. This "day" is the credit policy. Under the environment of credit release, the property market will continue to maintain a high level.