The Upstream Cost Of The Textile Industry Chain Is Rising Rapidly, And The Price Of Raw Materials Is Rising.

Last week, due to the rebound in international crude oil, the raw material market has come to a wave of market. The production and sale of polyester filament has exceeded 100 market, which is less than 2 weeks after the last production and marketing. This week, the raw material market was boosted by the good news of crude oil again. On the 8 day, the market was showing the bottom of the market. The polyester market staged another wave of market, which is only a week apart from the last market.

The time of raw material may be over.

In March this year, Saudi Arabia launched an oil price war, which sharply cut official prices, the biggest drop in 30 years.

Oil prices continued to rebound after the OPEC reached a reduction agreement in April.

In June 6th, a statement said that OPEC and non OPEC oil producers agreed to extend the average daily production of 9 million 700 thousand barrels of crude oil to the end of July. It is reported that the scale of the agreement is about 10% of the global supply and that of the oil price station is 40 dollars.

Polyester manufacturers were affected by the rise in crude oil and the recent rebound in PTA and ethylene glycol. These two days have raised their quotations. The cost of polyester filament tends to rise and fall, which boosted its driving force again.

In June 6th, some manufacturers pulled up 50-100 yuan / ton.

In June 7th, the price of individual factories increased by 100 yuan -200 yuan.

In June 8th, the price rose 50-100 yuan / ton.

In short, the price of polyester filament has increased.

It has to be said that thanks to the rebound in the bottom of international crude oil and the injection of a "strong heart" into the raw material market, the current polyester enterprises can be said to be the best period since the beginning of the year.

From the profit point of view, the profit margin has dropped from a high level to a relatively reasonable level. Among them, the inventory of leading polyester enterprises has dropped from the 40-50 DAY high level to 10-20 days, and some two or three line factories have even opened the empty list, and the overall fundamentals have shown a good overall performance.

It seems that the upstream of the entire textile industry chain has continuously released the signal of bottom up rebound. What is the phenomenon of downstream weaving Market?

If the price of raw materials increases in the age of sellers, the price of grey cloth will usually rise together. If the raw materials and grey fabrics have experienced a good honeymoon period before the first half of 2019, they will pull together, but if they are in the era of buyers, the days will not be so good. Weaving factories will be subject to rising costs on the one hand, and on the other hand, they should be sensitive to price. The customers can only live a life of "two heads".

One

Low price dumping

Entering the May, raw material prices have been rising frequently, especially the polyester filament FDY, which is used to produce products such as polyester taffeta and has gone up a lot. After entering the middle of May, the price of grey cloth market is particularly tight. Many enterprises are eager to sell at low prices. The price is even lower, such as "floor price". The market even appears that the price of finished products is below or equal to the price of grey cloth.

210T polyester taffeta black at 1.65 yuan / m, 240T spring Asian textile, white at 1.90 yuan / m, 300T spring sub textile, white at 2 yuan / m, 75D imitation silk at 2.20 yuan / MI......

"At present, dyeing fees and gray cloth prices are at the lowest level in previous years, but I do not dare to hoard them, mainly because they are not sure about the market in the second half of the year." A trader in Wujiang said.

Two

Shrinking profits

From the profit of grey cloth, at present, it is still a slight loss or a small profit to buy gray cloth now. After all, the price of grey cloth is not as good as the price of raw materials, so the immediate profit has not been improved. The upstream raw materials are expected to rise, and the terminal demand market has improved pressure. Therefore, the recent contradiction between weaving manufacturers is more prominent. "Now the raw materials are small, which obviously compresses our profit margins. The price of cloth can not be found, and the days are getting even harder." Zhu Zong, the head of textile industry, a main silk imitation fabric, said.

A company owner with 200 looms said that the factory remained at about 8 per cent in recent years, and dropped to 6 per cent in the near future. The reason is to underestimate the seriousness of the epidemic and think that the market downturn will not be too long. We hope to protect workers and avoid recruiting people when the market improves. Then the stock will continue to rise, profits will go down and cash is tight, so we can only choose to cut production.

Three

Weak demand

Although the summer has arrived, the cold winter of the consumer side is still continuing. According to the latest National Bureau of statistics, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 106758 billion yuan in 1-4 months, down 16.2% from the nominal level. In terms of textile and apparel retailing, the total retail sales of textile and apparel reached 79 billion 900 million yuan in April 2020, down 18.5% compared with the same period last year. In January 1-4, the total retail sales of textile and clothing were 305 billion 700 million yuan, down 29% from the same period last year.

This shows that the terminal consumer terminal has been in a weak state, thus inhibiting the demand for fabrics. "Now there are very few orders for fabrics in autumn and winter. A friend who opened a garment factory also said that after May, the market has not yet started, and the market has not yet resumed. A trader who played four rounds, Ma said.

Summary

The current textile market can be said to be "hot and cold". The upstream raw materials will rebound strongly, and the demand for the terminal will slowly recover.

But it is worth noting that, with the deployment of polyester faucets in recent years, and the high concentration of market capacity, the discourse power of polyester filament is in the hands of several textile giants. Therefore, as long as the raw materials end price signals are released, it is easy to pull up quotations under the condition of low inventories, but the effect needs further textual research.

Compared to the bustling of raw materials, the weaving Market is rather cold. Foreign trade has not been fully restored. Fierce competition in the domestic market has made it difficult for the price to improve. However, as raw materials continue to rise, perhaps the embarrassment of "floor price" will be broken.