In May, Cotton Market Focus And Forecast Are Here.

In 2020, after the tense situation of domestic outbreaks and the outbreak of outbreaks, crude oil fell and rebounded. The textile industry witnessed the history again and again. May is coming. Let's take a look at the key points that the cotton market needs to pay attention to.

At present, there are a lot of news that needs to be paid attention to in May. It is good and profitable. However, no matter what news, it is very necessary to distinguish the truth from the truth. First of all, let's take a look at what may be hyped up and will be much more profitable.

Weather speculation

At present, the new cotton planting in China is coming to an end. The completion rate of cotton planting in key producing areas reaches more than 90% in Xinjiang. According to the survey results, in 2020, China's cotton planting area was 45 million 501 thousand mu, a decrease of 2 million 442 thousand mu compared with that of the previous year, with a decrease of 5.1%. When cotton is planted and the area is finalized, it is the yield per unit area that affects the output. The agricultural products are seen in the sky, so the weather hype is normal. Recently, there are many reports of hail, sandstorm and snowfall in various parts of Xinjiang. We must distinguish the actual extent of the disaster and the situation. We must not blindly believe that a special weather is favorable.

India, Pakistan and new cotton planting suffered epidemics and desert locust disaster

In 5-6 months, India and Pakistan were facing new cotton cultivation, which accounted for 30% of the world's cotton supply. The recent epidemic in India is a worry to cotton participants. China imports 10% or more of India's cotton imports every year. In addition, the new cotton planting and desert locust disaster faced by India and Pakistan may be hyped up in May.

Europe confirms epidemic peak and US intends to resume work

At present, the number of countries in Europe has reached the peak or peak recognition period. Among them, news from Italy is expected to resume gradually from May 4th, and even though the current diagnostic data of the United States is still increasing, it is also reported that there will be a plan to resume work after May. Regardless of the current suitability, the return to work is better than the previous stoppage and shutdown. In addition, the relevant data show that the European Union, the United States and Japan are the top three importers of clothing in the world, and altogether import 61.5% of the world's clothing. At that time, we need to continue to pay attention to the actual recovery of downstream units.

Word goes abroad that the cotton storage wheel will enter 1 million tons.

At the beginning of last week, the news that the state might have bought and sold 1 million tons of cotton rose more than 5% in the evening, because it believed that the possibility of acquiring the US cotton resources was greater, and Zheng cotton rose second days later. However, the news lasted for a long time, and the main force of Zhengzhou cotton had already come down last week. One was calm because the news was not official propaganda. Two, the quantity of 1 million tons is limited, and it is not against the cotton demand affected by the epidemic. Follow up the news or there is still repeated, need to continue to follow up.

After checking the possible good results, we will objectively and dispassionate analysis of bad news.

Yarn is poor due to poor orders and poor operational motivation.

Province	Average start-up		Increase or decrease
	Four 27 June	Estimated May 7th
Shandong	53%	26%	-27%
Jiangsu	65%	27%	-37%
Zhejiang	59%	17%	-42%
Henan	50%	10%	-40%
Fujian	69%	64%	-6%
Hebei	52%	31%	-21%
Comprehensive start up	58%	29%	-29%

The downstream yarn reflects the continuous improvement of orders. Under the influence of the epidemic, it is hard to say that the domestic demand has not returned to normal condition even though the domestic epidemic has been controlled. At present, the domestic cotton textile enterprises have a starting rate of about 58%, and is expected to decrease to less than 3 in May 7th. The data were generated by long Zhong telephone research. The sample collection includes pure spinning and blending.

Threat from competing staple fibres

Even if the most severe period of oil demand loss is over, oil demand will probably drop by 18 million barrels per day in mid May. The global oil reserves are increasing rapidly, and the US oil reserves will reach 81%, and may reach the top next month. In this context, oil prices are expected to remain low for a longer period of time. Or that negative prices may still be reproduced. Polyester staple fiber as oil based fiber, cost or decline. Polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber and cotton are facing the same downstream cotton textile field. Apart from some special applications, most of the clothing areas have an alternative relationship. According to raw materials data from long Zhong information monitoring, after 2018, the price trend of the three major cotton textile materials is very consistent. By the end of April 27th, the price difference between cotton and viscose was 2800 yuan / ton, and cotton polyester price difference was 6200 yuan / ton. In addition, if the crude oil continues to be weak, the market mentality is also suppressed. The waves of 2020 tell us that small cotton is also linked with the global economy and atmosphere.

The long, low and disadvantageous market has made cotton practitioners rather depressed and expecting to have a strong mentality. But if we compare the cotton market to the kite flying, the demand is like a weight that falls below. The kite can not really fly, it depends on the weight. It is expected that there will be short term rebound and concussion caused by various speculation in the cotton market in May, but the main force will remain more volatile at 11000-12000 yuan / ton, so it is difficult to get out of a clear strong market.