Desolate! Raw Materials, Weaving, Fabrics... The Entire Textile Industry " Buddha " Operation! What Should We Do In The Second Half?

In accordance with past practice, the market order will be released in late August, laying the groundwork for the arrival of "Kim Gu", but compared with the fiery 2018, the textile market in 2019 appears somewhat cold and cheerless. Whether it is textile material or weaving enterprise, it seems that it has become "Buddha system".

Average operating rate of cotton spinning industry 80%

PTA industry starts 91.64%

Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms start 74%

Buddhist system: cotton raw materials

Yesterday, Zheng cotton's main contract fell sharply to below 12300 yuan / ton, a distance from 12000 yuan / ton strong support position, a new low in late April 2016, and increased worries about the cotton demand warming from 8 to September. The spot price of cotton in and out of Xinjiang was significantly reduced by 250-350 yuan / ton.

　　 Can the price drop of Xinjiang cotton make the volume and output of the new products improve? From the feedback of several warehouses and traders, the sharp reduction in price reduction did not stimulate the spot transaction. The buyer's "bearish" sentiment was more intense with the fall of Zheng cotton. Therefore, procurement only maintained production, and the enterprises could reduce the raw materials and finished product funds as much as possible.

Experts believe that unless cotton control policies and other good news come out in 8 to September, cotton prices will not be the lowest, but only lower.

Buddhist: weaving enterprises

Over the past few years, when raw material prices have gone up and down, weaving downstream is often the most exciting and the most impulsive.

However, in June and July of this year, raw material prices were ups and downs. At the same time, weaving enterprises were more of a "cold shoulder to look at" attitude.

　　 In the process of market visits, most of today's weaving enterprises also say that they will not hoard raw materials for a few months like the past two years. They are basically buying and using materials, and the raw material procurement cycle is shortened to 1-2 weeks.

Now, weaving enterprises see that raw materials have gone up, most of them are just looking at it. It is impossible to hoard goods and store goods.

Buddha system: productivity retreats

Recall that in the 16 and 17 years, the traditional textile cluster of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province just started to rewind the production capacity of water jet looms, which caused a uproar in the market at that time. It may be a bit too much to say "complaining", but some complaints are always indispensable.

This year, the regulation of water jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has entered the stage of ending and sprinting. The number of water looms has not been slower than the previous two years. Unlike the past two years, the boss of the weaving factory is waiting for the government to evaluate and reclaim the workshop.

　　 In the face of the closure of factories, the owners of weaving factories have become "Buddha systems". Anyway, the compensation is in place, and the loan is returned. The remaining money is stored in the bank every year to eat interest, and when doing the market, do business again and enjoy life.

Why are we all Buddhas?

The word "Buddha" was first used to describe young people who worked hard in big cities. They struggled for many years, but because of the high housing prices, they could not see the way to go. Finally, they became indifferent and indifferent to other things. Is this not the case in the textile industry?

For raw material enterprises, the price of textile raw materials is rising or falling, and the downstream seems to be out of stock. No matter the rise or fall, it is unlikely that the downstream weaving enterprises will be able to endure for a long time, and eventually become a stable state.

For cotton spinning enterprises, in the face of fluctuations in cotton prices, the implementation of non purchase or purchase with the use of the main need to see the purchasing power of the lower reaches, if the downstream terminal consumption has not been improved, from 9 to October, production and marketing "busy season" or will be wasted together.

For weaving enterprises, raw materials will rise or fall, and the cloth produced will not be sold anyway. Money will be stored in grey cloth, and there is not much money to store raw materials.

For the boss of the weaving factory who is facing a retreat, it will be a bit reluctant for the factory to open for such a long time. But what can it do? Anyway, now the factory is tired and unable to earn money. It is very old. After the hard working years, it is very good.

So in the final analysis, it is still because the market environment is really bad, manufacturers do not have profits, and there is no demand downstream.

"Kim Gu" is right in front of us. Can we continue to "Buddha"? September is the traditional peak season for textile industry. Although the market is going to be worse this year, people's basic clothing demand is there. The basic quantity will still be there every year.

As a matter of fact, from this week, orders for textile enterprises have increased significantly since the beginning of this week, and some of the dyeing factories have also seen a long time out of the "burst warehouse" news, and the market has improved.

　　 According to the survey, starting from last week, the rate of opening up of several industrial clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has picked up to varying degrees. Among them, the loom loom rate has increased to more than 8, the starting rate of the circular machine has increased from 4-5 to 5-6, and the warp knitting start-up rate has increased from 6 to around 7, compared with the beginning of August, the boot rate has generally increased by 5-10%.

"The order is a bit more than before. We have also resumed full production when we turn on the machine, and then we can see whether the production and marketing will be smooth." Wujiang area a silk factory owner Wang said. With the advent of the autumn and winter season, the demand for winter clothes and casual wear will increase in the market. Therefore, to a certain extent, the order of related fabrics will be released. Many enterprises begin to moderate the production of seasonal products based on this idea.

Perhaps in the near future, the price of textile materials will start to rise. I do not know that at that time, weaving enterprises may hardly be able to "Buddha" again.

Market forecast in the second half of the year

According to the report of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, from a macro point of view, the global economic slowdown is expected to be obvious, the market demand is generally weakening, the trade environment risk still exists, and the textile industry export pressure is more prominent.

From the cost point of view, large scale refining and chemical projects will soon be put into operation. The domestic output of PX will be released and the localization rate will be raised. The low cost of domestic integrated refineries will further reduce the processing difference of PX, and suppress the price of PTA and polyester from the cost end. PTA profits may still remain relatively good, so the PTA load will still remain at a high level, PTA will remain balanced and loose, and the polyester market will also be suppressed.

From the demand side, we can see whether the peak season is expected to materialize, but under the complex trade situation, the mentality of terminal production will be more cautious, the peak season is not strong enough, and the sustainability is weak. Therefore, the overall demand will be hard to pick up.

From the perspective of industry supply capability, preliminary statistics show that the polyester project has been put into operation in the second half of this year for 3 million 500 thousand tons (including 600 thousand tons of bottle tablets). Although the new energy output is not as good as last year, the market will be under great pressure when demand is sluggish.

On the whole, the downward pressure of chemical fiber industry is still very large in the second half of the year, and the risks and challenges remain. With the gradual development of the national initiative to promote high-quality development, the development and operation of the chemical fiber industry will also play a strong support. The industry's own risk tolerance and development resilience will continue to improve. What the industry needs to do is to "manage its own affairs", strive to defuse risks, strengthen industry self-discipline, avoid undesirable competition, and reasonably control new production capacity.

In a word, in the first half of 2019, under the background of increasing pressure from inside and outside market, operation index of production, sale, benefit and investment of textile industry fluctuated. In the second half of 2019, the external environment facing the textile industry is more and more complicated. However, China's macroeconomic environment and domestic consumption market will still provide the primary development support for the industry. The textile industry will tap the potential of domestic demand, vigorously promote the development of high quality, further enhance the ability to resist risks and develop resilience, and make every effort to ensure stable operation. At the same time, the textile industry must correctly and fully understand the complexity of the global economy and the trade environment and the long-term nature of the risk factors, make proper preparations for them, and promote the sustained, healthy and stable development of the industry.