Cost No Good Demand No Improvement Polyester Staple Market Trend Or Sideways

In mid August, under the fire of postponing or cancelling some products tariff incidents in the US market, the polyester staple fiber started a wave of concentrated rise, and the sales and sales rate of many enterprises reached over 500%.

But at the moment, near the golden nine silver ten, the polyester and short market seems to be as calm as water, so what's wrong with the short market? Will prices continue to rise?

There is no obvious benefit to the cost side.

At present, the PTA social inventory is estimated to be around 1 million 400 thousand tons, which is affected by the device parking inspection. In August, it maintained a small library rhythm. However, according to the factory's overhaul at this stage, the installation load in the short term is still high, and at the present stage, the stock of raw material stocking of polyester factories is slightly higher, so PTA has the risk of storehouse. Whether or not we can ride the "gold nine silver ten" wind will be unknown.

MEG, in the case of domestic supply reduction, port inventory dropped significantly, downstream polyester demand slowly increased, multiple good driving, MEG market price or about 4500 yuan / ton warming. So, in general, the raw material end has no obvious advantage for polyester staple fiber.

No signs of improvement in demand side

At present, the production of polyester staple fiber is light, and there is a certain pressure on the factory. The main reason is that there is no clear benefit in the end of the textile and apparel industry. The number of delayed tariff increases accounts for a small proportion of the total export volume of the textile and clothing categories. The industry has little confidence in the order of autumn and winter. Until now, there is still no clear starting signal.

In addition to pure polyester yarn, the main market in Fujian, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, cotton, polyester cotton, polyester viscose yarn inventory has been more than 20 days, the new single transaction no signs of improvement, the industry is still holding an empty mentality.

How to make polyester Market in the short term?

Raw material side, although the market lacks new guidelines, the difference between PTA processing at 1000 yuan / ton is relatively reasonable, and downstream polyester start up gradually, and new equipment is put into operation, demand side support is acceptable, market or relative decline; and after last week's centralized stocking, the polyester staple fiber enterprises currently have no stock or in the state of being in short supply, and the cash flow is low, so it is expected that there will be no short-term market risk.

However, the market overdraft is obvious. If there is no other positive boost in the short term, the continuation of the replenishment will continue to be limited. (source: long Zhong information, China International Futures)