The Stock Market In June Has Certain Rebounding Conditions, Probably Not Going Down.

From March to May, the stock market fell for three consecutive months, during which not only the index fell below almost all the EMA, but also many stocks broke the position of last year's fusing.

As a result, this period of time is known as the "stock market crash 4".

Then, will there be a turning point for the stock market after entering the June? There is a proverb in the stock market, which is called "five poor, six and seven". It is said that this is based on the hundred years trend of Hongkong stock market.

If the domestic market is the same, it means that the market will have to drop another month.

However, judging from the market operation in early June, it seems that some changes have taken place.

For example, the original sustained high-intensity expansion began to slow down, originally issued 10 new issue weekly, now adjusted to 4-7; the SFC has imposed severe restrictions on the lifting of the restricted stock circulation; in addition, the approval of the asset restructuring of listed companies has also accelerated.

In spite of the above events, there is no conclusion that regulation is loose. Some of the adjustments have obvious technical characteristics. It is difficult to give people stable expectations, and there are still some measures that cause great controversy in the market.

But in any case, these measures have improved the market environment to a certain extent, which has eased the previously tense market and changed the situation of extreme polarization of stocks.

Of course, the biggest problem at present is that the volume has not been effectively enlarged or even atrophied from time to time, which means that there is still no incremental capital to enter the market.

Power.

Then the question arises: will such a situation change? Obviously, behind the light trading is the tension of the market funds. Although the supply is compressed, the supply itself is still increasing, but demand has not increased.

Obviously, solving the problem of incremental capital entering the market is a key.

One of the prerequisites for incremental capital to enter the market is that liquidity in the capital market should not be too tight.

It has been noticed that in recent times, the development interest rate of a AA class park has risen to more than 7%, while the interest rate of a credit bond has exceeded 9%.

Overnight lending rates in the interbank bond market continue to exceed the one-year banking period.

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This shows that the current capital structure is very tense.

But in reverse, as far as the domestic real economy is concerned, it is simply unable to support such a high interest rate. As a result, it is clear that if interest rates can not be lowered, then it will only be a real downturn in the real economy.

This is a difficult choice, but people usually can think of what the result of the choice is.

In other words, that is to say, in June, it is possible to see that under the premise of significant progress in deleveraging, people may make some fine-tuning and preconditioning of relevant tightening policies aimed at correcting the high interest rates caused by the imbalance between supply and demand of short-term funds.

As long as interest rates show a downward trend, people's expectations will change, so that the relationship between supply and demand of funds will also be improved.

This factor and the regulatory department in the stock market policy adjustment combined together, then will the market play a positive role?

Of course, the interpretation of things will not be as simple as it is here, and in the past few months,

Great changes have taken place in the structure, which are also needed to be adjusted, otherwise it will be difficult to arouse the popularity of the market effectively.

The problem now is that the outlook is not clear.

There are serious differences and even antagonism in the preference of stocks due to the different preferences of capital strength. Therefore, there is no doubt that there will be big shocks in the future market.

Therefore, the stock market in June will probably not be as bad as it did in the past few months, but it has certain rebound conditions.

However, because of uncertainty, there is still a lot of uncertainty, so even if the rebound is not too high, it can only be characterized by building up the bottom.

Of course, if the bottom is successful in June, there will be more opportunities in July. That should be the stock proverb of "five poor, six and seven".

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