The New Year Cotton Production Market Has Its Own "Rules".

The United States Department of agriculture's monthly report in May will finally increase its output in the next year. The speculators who chase the fundamentals will finally be able to speak out.

However, regardless of Zheng Mian or ICE, they have their own rules of the game. Whether you understand or not, you have to learn to be awe.

The Changyang line of earth shaking is almost staring.

As everyone knows, a good weekly export of US cotton exports is unlikely to cause such a great disturbance.

How many people were still looking for exports yesterday in the bad atmosphere of the USDA monthly report? In a flash, cotton prices seem to be returning to the clouds. There is only one reason.

So, eat big meat in July and clear soup in December.

Foreign analysts immediately pointed out that there are factors of divergence in the current stage of the market.

The US cotton supply has tightened in 2016/17, providing support for recent contracts.

Technically, the ICE futures fund has always been at a historically high level. There are still a lot of spot prices waiting for short positions in the July contract, which will bring a lot of uncertainty to cotton prices in the coming months.

On the contrary, outside China in 2017/18

It is expected that overall growth, limited demand growth and significant increase in inventories may be the main reason why ICE futures contract in December has been lower than in recent months.

China, how to ensure that the supply of cotton will have a significant impact on China's cotton prices before the end of the auction.

Because the market is worried that the supply of cotton may break down as it did last year, CF1801 contracts have been higher than those in recent months.

From a global perspective, it is still very early from 2017/18, and the final production and demand data may be far from the present.

The market needs to pay close attention to the weather, the trend of China's cotton imports and the news of other main producing countries' policies, which will have a noticeable impact on cotton prices.

Cotton prices fell during the ICE period this week.

This week, USDA announced the first global inventory of cotton production and marketing in 2017/18. This report has substantially increased global cotton production, which is affected by ICE.

Weak trend, but because the July contract is facing the next delivery, and the current US cotton contract situation is very good, the amount of cotton in the United States is small, so the contract in recent months after the bottom of the sharp rise.

In the USDA monthly report released this week, India's cotton production increased by 326 thousand tons to 6 million 96 thousand tons, the output of cotton in China increased by 164 thousand tons to 5 million 117 thousand tons, the output of cotton in the United States increased significantly from 442 thousand tons to 4 million 180 thousand tons, and the world cotton increased 1 million 599 thousand tons to 24 million 651 thousand tons. Consumption: China's cotton production increased by 109 thousand tons to 8 million 165 thousand tons, and the global cotton consumption increased from 557 thousand tons to 8 million 165 thousand tons. At the end of the stockpile: China sharply reduced the volume of tons to tons of salt, and India raised the tonnes of tons to tonnes. The United States raised the tonnes of tons to 164 thousand tons to 6 million 96 thousand tons.

Last week, the US cotton exports slightly improved, the contract volume increased by 36 thousand and 400 tons, the ring increased. By the end of the week, the United States signed a total of 3 million 70 thousand and 200 tons of land cotton in 2016/17, completing the 100% expected shipment.

2 million 311 thousand and 300 tons, shipment progress of 76%, 2017/18 cotton textile cut-off volume reached 557 thousand and 100 tons last week, an increase of 107.9% over the same period last year.

This week, Zheng cotton prices rose, the 1705 contract was close to delivery, Zheng cotton warehouse list volume 5257 (+70), folded lint 210 thousand and 300 tons, effective warehouse receipt volume of 1390 (-133), folding cotton 55 thousand and 600 tons.

On the spot, high quality Xinjiang cotton is more popular in the market, and the price is relatively strong, especially in Xinjiang.

In recent days, there have been a large number of registered warehouse receipts flowing out. This shows that the attention and enthusiasm of Xinjiang cotton warehouse receipts has been raised by textile manufacturers and traders. The activity of "cash pfer" has increased dramatically, but at the same time, a large number of effective warehouse receipts have been registered as official warehouse receipts.

In conclusion, although the huge warehouse receipts have pressure on Zheng cotton contract, the 705 contract falls to the current price level, and a large number of warehouse receipts outflow effectively support it.

In the near future, the US cotton has been greatly strengthened. It is expected that Zheng cotton will be affected by its atmosphere in the near future.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.