Does Money Market Interest Rate Mean Tightening Monetary Policy?

The central bank raised 7 days, 14 days and 28 days of reverse repo operation interest rate 10 basis points, of which 20 billion yuan 7 days reverse repurchase operation bid rate increased from 2.35% to 2.45%, 20 billion yuan of 14 day reverse repurchase operation bid rate increased from 2.5% to 2.5%, and the reverse repurchase rate of the winning yuan of the winning yuan was raised to 0.

At the same time, the central bank operated 303 billion yuan for 17 financial institutions in the mid-term lending facility (MLF), up 10 basis points for MLF operating interest rates, and six months and one-year rates to 3.05% and 3.20%, respectively.

The rise in the bid rate is only a rate increase in the money market, which is different from the increase in deposit and lending rates, which is what we normally call interest rates.

The central bank's raise interest rate on deposit is often an active regulation and control, which belongs to the category of macroeconomic regulation and control.

The rise of the winning rate in the money market often highlights the market side.

In fact, the increase in the winning rate is not news.

For example, every open market operation of the central bank since 1996, the winning rate is often changing.

On the other hand,

The timing of raising the winning rate is rather subtle.

The Federal Reserve announced on the morning of 16 hours in Beijing, raising the index overnight interest rate target range by 25 basis points to the 0.75-1.00% interval.

This is the third increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate since the financial crisis and the second increase in interest rates in three months.

This year, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates several times or no longer raise interest rates.

While the central bank has raised the winning rate, there are also factors affecting the Fed's interest rate hike.

If the Fed does not raise interest rates, the winning rate will probably not be raised even in the context of "marketization".

In response to the central bank's interest rate raising measures in the money market, a financial website launched the investor survey activities of "the central bank raised MLF and reverse repo rate".

Among them, 65.5% of respondents believe that monetary policy tightens the signal. 57.5% of the respondents believe that the central bank will raise interest rates (raise lending and lending rates) this year, while those who consider negative A shares account for 47.8%, and those with more A shares and no influence will account for 24.9% and 27.3% respectively.

Behind the data, in fact, also shows some investors' concerns.

Although the central bank claims that the winning interest rate upward is the performance of the market driven by the impact of capital supply and demand, it is mainly determined by the market, but there is no doubt that there is also the purpose of guarding against financial risks and deleveraging.

After all, in the 2015-2016 years, because of the low interest rate in the money market and the high leverage in the capital market, the interest rate increase in the money market helped.

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Leveraged buyout, leverage increase and so on, exacerbate the fluctuation of related stock prices, and objectively enlarge the risk of the whole market.

In the case of deleveraging, it will be conducive to the smooth operation of the market, to protect the interests of small investors, and to prevent the "barbarians" and capital big crocodile investors from the stock market, and to steal huge profits from the market.

Although the survey results show that the central bank's monetary market interest rate hike is bad, A shares are actually not the same.

When the news came out on Thursday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both went higher and higher, and the Shanghai Composite Index even hit a new high this year.

Therefore, the effect of money market interest rate raising on capital market is at least neutral.

The current stock market is moving according to its operation rules.

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