It Doesn'T Make Much Sense To Make "Point Price" Hedging In Ginning Plants.

Since November 10th, the commodity futures market has been able to catch up with the appetite of both sides. From soaring to slump, it is only a short three minutes, especially in cotton and rubber.

CF1701 contract 11 days from 17005 to 14775 limit down only used the "half smoke" time.

The cotton enterprises in the territory are strongly expecting the main contract of the Zhengzhou period to rush again to 16000 and 17000, and the idea of "cotton rather than flood" is holding the mainstream of the cotton spot price. The price difference between the buyers and the buyers is expected to reach 500 yuan / ton.

The price of CF1705 and CF1701 is close, and the base of foreign businessmen and traders is mostly 770-800 yuan / ton (1705 is the main contract). Therefore, it is not very meaningful for the ginning factory to do "point price" hedging, and the spot sales pressure has increased.

Some cotton merchants' standard grade in November 16th.

The purchase price is 14700-14750 yuan / ton (fixed settlement), which is very attractive to the cotton picking enterprises within the territory. On the one hand, the comprehensive cost of lint is generally over 15500 yuan / ton. On the other hand, it is difficult to solve the bottleneck problem of Xinjiang cotton in the short term. The supply of high grade and high quality cotton in the mainland market will further push up the cotton price expectation.

Although the author also recognizes the possibility that short-term Zheng and spot will be back up, the two will break through 16000 yuan / ton, which seems to have little resistance (spot refers to "double 28/ double 29" lint), but the height of the rebound is relatively limited, and the ginning factory and cotton enterprises must seize the right time and do not miss the sale of the price.

First of all, the downstream clothing and grey fabric market does not support cotton and cotton yarn rising shape.

Since the beginning of November, weaving factories and grey fabrics in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other places

Reflecting the "difficult business", grey price quotes not only dragged the cotton up sharply, but also tightened with the terminal market, and cash flow was scarce.

In addition, dyeing and printing factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have increased significantly in recent days.

The impact is relatively large (the impact of the fluctuation of exchange rate on foreign trade companies and garment factories can not be underestimated). The days of cloth factories and middlemen are even more sad.

The crisis and risk of the terminal must be passed up from top to bottom, and cotton can not be left alone.

Secondly, imported cotton yarn once again "seize the pass", the domestic cotton mill is in danger.

According to statistics, as of November 15th, the number of bonded cotton yarn in China's main ports rose to about 85 thousand tons. From the expected arrival, we expect to break through 90 thousand tons and 100 thousand tons in late November and late December.

At present, the difference between India and Pakistan producing C10S-C32S yarn, OE yarn and domestic yarn is 1000-1500 yuan / ton, and the competitiveness is greatly enhanced.

Due to the advantages of large supply, good dyeing and LC90 days, many Chinese manufacturers and traders adjust their purchasing directions. The inquiry and order for the shipment of printed cotton yarn in 1/2 month are increasing in varying degrees.

Again, the recent external market or the cotton market has become bad.

First, from the position of Trump and the Federal Reserve, the US economy is accelerating. In December, the expectation of increasing interest rates is becoming more and more intense. The trend of commodities is to be discussed. Secondly, with the futures exchanges and relevant departments increasing the restrictions on the speculation of commodity futures such as black cotton and cotton, the funds of the Zhengzhou period have been closed out one by one, and the futures and spot are pushing each other and leveraging each other's hope. Thirdly, from the time perspective, after March 2017, the relevant departments of the state will restart the reserve cotton wheel, and the estimate from the scale is likely to be 2 million tons, and the sale time for Xinjiang cotton in 2016/17 is only 6 months.