The Sale Of Reserve Cotton Is Perfect.

The current cotton seed purchase game is the main contradiction facing the domestic cotton market.

In this contradiction, due to the overcapacity of cotton mill, cotton growers are in a favorable position, and the probability of seed cotton prices will continue to maintain strong or high oscillation.

However, with the accumulation of cotton seed purchases later, the forces of both sides will change. The domestic supply and demand balance and the trend of the international market will determine the direction of the market, and the risk of cotton price fall later.

After the sale of reserve cotton is over, seed cotton purchase has become the focus of attention in the whole market.

Due to the continuous reduction of planting area in recent years, the overcapacity of ginning plants is obvious, and the cotton price rebounded sharply this year, resulting in the current situation of rush to harvest is very prominent, and the price of seed cotton has obviously increased during the national day.

Due to the inferior position of the cotton ginning plant, it is difficult to reduce the situation of cotton seed rush harvest in the near future, and Zheng cotton will remain strong.

Domestic cotton

Since the adjustment, China's cotton planting area has continued to decline, and its output has decreased year by year, from the peak of nearly 8 million tons to the current 4 million 600 thousand tons.

However, there is no corresponding shrinkage in cotton processing capacity in China, resulting in a big gap between processing capacity and seed cotton supply, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.

According to the current purchase price, the price of cotton mill is 16000 yuan / ton and the risk is very large. Some ginning plants have suspended the purchase.

The vast majority of cotton farmers believe that cotton prices will be relatively strong, do not want to sell seed cotton prices.

The game between supply and demand leads to the slow progress of seed cotton purchase and the relatively low number of new cotton stocks.

However, judging from the current market situation, cotton farmers have a dominant position due to oversupply of cotton ginning ability.

The situation of strong price is hard to reverse.

In 2016, the sale of state cotton and cotton stores has achieved excellent results. The cumulative output of 3 million 3 thousand and 800 tons of accumulative cotton is out of stock, and the total output is 2 million 659 thousand and 200 tons. The turnover rate is 88.53%, of which the total domestic cotton turnover is 2 million 362 thousand and 900 tons, with a turnover rate of 87.45%, and the import cotton has a total turnover of 296 thousand and 300 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.16%.

The highest price is 16490 yuan per ton, the lowest price is 9730 yuan / ton, and the price of 3128 is 14880 yuan / ton, and the average price is 13324 yuan / ton.

The amount of reserve cotton has been effectively replenish.

The gap between supply and demand.

But this year's policy of dumping and selling also left much regret, mainly due to the unmeasurable factors in the period of throwing and storing, resulting in obvious fluctuations in the price of cotton (15375, -110.00, -0.71%).

However, from the policy point of view, this year, the output of more than 2 million 600 thousand tons has been completed, effectively eliminating the daily inventory of national cotton reserves and coordinating the interests of all parties in the industrial chain, and the positive results achieved are far greater than the negative ones.

According to the US Department of agriculture's September supply and demand report, the increase in global cotton production in 2016/2017 was offset by a decrease in initial inventory and a slight increase in inventory at the end of the world.

Global consumption remained unchanged and trade volume declined slightly.

The end of the world inventory of 19 million 554 thousand tons, up 43 thousand tons, an increase of 1 million 903 thousand tons compared with the same period last year; in addition to China, the end of the world inventory of 8 million 537 thousand tons, up 64 thousand tons, an increase of 187 thousand tons compared to the same period last year.

This shows that the international cotton market is still facing greater pressure of supply and demand, resulting in the recent weak performance of the US cotton futures and the widening of the internal and external spreads.