Economic Interpretation: The Trend Of Heavy Investment Value

China's A shares have always been known as retail harvesters by the outside world. A very important reason is that retail investors in the A share market are dubbed "leek" because of their ignorance of the market and the lack of certain operational skills. Only about 10% of them are made money.

How can individual investors get rid of the "leek" ranks and become the winners of the stock market? In July 31st, the Yangcheng Evening News giant, which was sponsored by Yangcheng Evening News, the exclusive name of the Yuexiu group and a strategic partner of the Management School of Jinan University, was held at Jinan University school of management.

Mr. Yu Wenlin, the principal speaker of the Fengyang asset, believes that only with innovative "value + trend" investment philosophy and "value + trend" investment system can we control risks, cross bull bears, and truly achieve absolute returns.

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Taking the company value as the core

Value investing has always been an investment strategy praised by Buffett. Buffett believes that whether a stock is worth investing is the core value of its investment, rather than its "book value".

Buffett defines the value of an enterprise as "the discount value of future cash inflows".

Book value can tell you what has been invested, and intrinsic value is what you expect to get from it.

Yu Wenlin believes that the value of the company is the main reason why we invest in this stock.

How to evaluate the value of an enterprise, Yu Wenlin introduced that the relative value method is the most widely used, the simplest and most suitable method for retail investors.

The core of the relative value method is to select similar enterprises that you want to buy as the subject matter, such as the size of the capital stock, the property of the industry, the time to market, and so on.

In the case of

The growth of the company is particularly important.

The share price of a company is composed of EPS and P / E. The share price is mostly determined by P / E because of the same earnings per share.

A good growth company has a relatively large increase in P / E ratio, and its share price will continue to rise.

So how do we judge a company as a growth enterprise? Yu Wenlin analysis says that we can judge from the following aspects.

First of all, enterprises engaged in the industry should be sunrise industries or new industries, and the industry will have some room for development in the future.

Evaluation of an enterprise can not leave the industry in which the enterprise is located.

Every industry has a life cycle, which is created, grown, matured, and declined.

From the perspective of investment, enterprises in the growing period of industry generally grow very fast and have more opportunities than those in recession.

Moreover, if the enterprise gets the average growth rate or excess profit with the change of market concentration, such enterprises will have huge investment value.

For example, after the melamine incident, the market share of Yili has been rising and the stock price has gained 100 times the growth rate after the melamine incident.

Secondly, the main business of the company should be simple, clear and diversified.

Yu Wenlin, for example, why we feel that Moutai is a growth enterprise, because its main business is single and will not be diversified like other enterprises.

"A lot of enterprises like mergers and acquisitions, diversification, market popularity VR go to VR, popular Internet + go to Internet +, all of these enterprises like to tell stories, but they are not credible, because these enterprises are separated from their main business, even the main business is not good, growth will not be very good."

In addition, growth enterprises should have strong market development capability, strong technological innovation capability and perfect enterprises.

And other characteristics.

The three trend is the intervention point.

Besides the value of enterprises, stock investment should also pay attention to the trend of this enterprise.

Yu Wenlin combined with his own experience that buying a company's stock mainly depends on three trends.

First, understand the trend of enterprises in the industry, if the industry is the setting sun industry, in the downward trend, do not buy; second, research enterprise profit especially the main business profit margin trend, the enterprise profit is mainly determined by the price relationship, if the enterprise sales volume continues to rise, and there is the right to raise the price, then the enterprise is a good investment object; third, master the stock market technology trend, the main trend of the stock market is particularly important, because the main trend once formed, half will be very hard to reverse.

"If you find that the main trend is going down, don't buy it."

While studying and judging the main trend of stocks and market, it is simpler and more effective to adopt the rule of straightedge and the large moving average system.

The straight line trend line requires investors to link up the lowest and low points of stocks in recent periods to form a rising trend line or to connect the highest and sub high points of the stock to form a downward trend line so as to judge the rise or fall trend of the stock market.

At the same time, in Yu Wenlin's view, the 30 day moving average is the most important moving average, while the 5 day moving average and the 10 day moving average are too fast to see the long-term trend of stocks.

"I usually pay more attention to the 30 day moving average. If 30 days, 60 days and 120 days are glued together, it will diverge at the same time and form a special technical form that is extremely separated and arranged in a long way. This is the four line flowering. This kind of stock is the best, the most dynamic force, and has formed a rising resonance in the medium and long term, and the trend is hard to be changed."

Yu Wenlin also said that if there were second golden fork or four line blossoms after the first golden crossing on the 30 day moving average, the probability of success would be even higher.

In addition, Yu Wenlin said, when you find the stock you want to buy, you can buy it in the vicinity of the 30 day moving average, because he thinks a stock can simply rise and a lot of people lock it up, so it is a stock worth investing.

"A stock can rise for a long time. There must be a large number of institutions buying and holding and locking for a long time."

Therefore, when we find that a stock rises, many people buy, when many people sell when they fall, they will have more heart, because there are not many people who lock this stock.

In the past many subject stock operations, we will always find that when such stocks rise, many people will go crazy to buy, when they fall, they will sell wildly, the speed of change is too fast, the cycle of rising is not long, and they can not hold for a long time.

However, when we find that the stocks are effectively below or away from the 30 day line, we must choose to sell the stock and not think it is value investing, thus holding it for a long time.

"Many people chose not to sell stocks when the stock market continued to decline in the 7 and August of last year, because they thought these stocks were valuable and could be held for a long time, but they were all in a downward trend and it was difficult to change them. As a result, these investors suffered a lot of losses."

Yu Wenlin said.

Yu Wenlin also stressed that in fact, there was no stock god. They only adopted a multi-dimensional and comprehensive approach to improve their chances of success.

"Unless he is a celestial being, he will not be able to predict accurately whether he will rise or fall tomorrow."

Laugh.

Investment methods and mindset are very important.

Yu Wenlin believes that there are three ways to help retail investors make money in the stock market.

The first method is to study the stock market conscientiously, master its familiar operation method, and become a professional investor.

The second is to make asset allocation and purchase some professional financial products.

The third way is to do counter cyclical stock buying. When others do not buy stocks, you invest in stocks, but when others are crazy, you choose to quit.

"Because bubbles are generally pushed up when people buy more."

Yu Wenlin said.

Yu Wenlin found that the current stock market and similar markets in the 2013 and 2014 years have been around for a long time, but this is the time to buy bottom.

"Why do many people say buying stocks lose money? Because many people bought it at a bull market of about more than 3000 or 4000 points. When he found that the stock market was down a bit, he did not dare to buy it. When the stock market kept rising, he kept buying, and finally fell when the stock market fell."

Yu Wenlin believes that buying now can cross bull bear cycles, build positions in bear markets, and sell higher profits at a bull market.

At the same time, we should gradually develop our own operating habits and operation methods, and do not let others echo others.

Yu Wenlin emphasized that the way to buy and sell stocks must be one's own. No way to learn what others say is good.

If the method of stock is not understood, it is better to buy financial products or carry out anti operation.

Of course, mindset is also important.

"Some people look forward to the stock market returns too high, the stock market has been regarded as a casino."

Yu Wenlin believes that the stock investment can not be expected too high, many people want to buy a stock can be doubled, this idea is not very realistic, especially in this situation, it is very important to lower expectations.

At the same time, we must have patience in buying and selling stocks, instead of changing stocks all day, because this is just speculation, rather than value investing.

"Why do we all say that real estate makes money because they bought it when they were low ten years ago, and then sell it at the present high level, and the whole cycle of rising is involved.

If real estate is changed every month, it is also not profitable.

Yu Wenlin said.