PTA Increase Is Much Higher Than Raw Material PX Speculation Price Rise Is A Flash In The Pan.

In 2016 1~6, the market price of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in the East China market rose 9.18%, reaching 4700 yuan / ton. The high point was 5000 yuan / ton in April 27th, the low point was 4100 yuan / ton in January 22nd, and the market price remained at a low level in history. JOYOU information analyst, an Guang, said 1~6 month PTA production is mainly loss, only in late April, it turned short for profit, because PTA futures funds rose and pushed up spot, and PTA rose much higher than raw material PX, but it didn't last long.

According to JOYOU information statistics, in 2016 1~6 months, PTA load started at around 66.5%. Since April 2015, the Far East Petrochemical Company and the Xiang Lu petrochemical PTA plant stopped, the domestic PTA operation capacity decreased significantly, resulting in 2016 PTA load started mainly between 65%~70%, unlike the previous years, there was a strong fluctuation, and this state may run through 2016.

2016 1~5 month, China PTA The import volume is 224 thousand tons, the export volume is 334 thousand tons, and the net export volume is 110 thousand tons. In May, the PTA import volume was 36 thousand and 900 tons, a record low. Domestic PTA surplus is serious, and PTA big factory's "one day tour" source of goods seriously squeezed the import PTA market share, the future PTA Import volume China's exports to India, the Middle East and other countries and regions will continue to increase.

An Guang said, according to PTA and polyester operating rate projections, the first quarter of PTA is in the stock increase period, because in 2016 1~2 months, domestic polyester factory overhaul is more, for example, polyester staple fiber load started to fall to 40% of the historical low, so the PTA surplus was serious throughout the whole quarter. In the two quarter, PTA just needs to warm up, and G20 summit leads to textile. Printing and dyeing industry Some orders were advanced, and the terminal factories were stocked beforehand, so the polyester operation rate remained high in June, and there was no obvious decline. The whole two quarter was the phase of PTA going to inventory, but it is reported that the social stock of PTA is still high at the end of June, about 1 million 900 thousand tons.

The crude oil market is still fighting price wars, snatching market share, and temporarily hyping some oil producing countries to cut production and push up oil futures. It is difficult for oil futures to give sustained impetus to the rise in oil prices. WTI crude oil may be under 50 U.S. dollars / barrel unless Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major oil producing countries reach a reduction agreement. On the macro side, the series of negative effects of Britain's withdrawal from Europe have not yet been completely released. Later, EU referendums can not be excluded from Europe. Even if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates temporarily, the world economic environment has no substantial improvement.

The PTA fundamentals are short of heavy profits. Andrew believes that the PTA market should be faced with caution in the 2016. The enthusiasm of the industry is far lower than that of the bottom market. The market is short of speculation and the buyer's strength to the spot market is limited. In addition, nearly 3 years in the second half of PTA, there is no sustained rebound in the market, 7~8 months after the occasional stir up market, most of the market in the second half of the year is in a weak market. The G20 summit postponed the decline in demand in June. Otherwise, the demand for 7~8 months was overdrawn in advance. In the end of 8 and early September, the capacity of polyester parking in East China was much larger than that in PTA and PX. An Guang believes that unless the crude oil rebounds sharply or the PTA market reproduces heavy equipment, otherwise the PTA market will be weak and volatile in the second half of the year.