Reserve Cotton Is Hot, New Year, International Market Supply Is Loose.

This year's reserve cotton sales are extremely hot. According to statistics, as of May 16th, the total turnover of cotton reserves was 300327.4566 tons, and the total volume of imported cotton was 205843.6138 tons, with a turnover rate of 100%.

The total volume of domestic cotton was 94483.8428 tons, and the turnover rate was 97.79%.

Compared with last year's total volume of 60 thousand tons of total turnover, this year's turnover is quite different.

In such a hot situation, the author believes that the contract will be supported in recent months, while the far month contract is facing the new year's easing of supply, and investors can grasp arbitrage opportunities that are close to selling.

This year

Production has been reduced and demand has been raised. At present, China's new flower inventory has dropped to about 400 thousand tons.

With the development of dumping and storage, after the traders hoarding goods to a certain extent, their storage capacity will decline. The pace of on-going procurement will determine the rhythm of throwing and storing.

At that time, the situation that the market will rush to buy state cotton stores will get better, and the downward trend of the water will be reduced, and the tension in the spot market will be eased.

At present, the new flower inventory is only 400 thousand tons.

Although the late national cotton store will occupy most of the spot demand after being out of storage, it will be restricted by the total amount.

It will still be more intense.

From the specific data of the paction, 100% of cotton imports were imported every day, and the turnover of domestic cotton was over 96%.

This means that only two or three batches of cotton are estimated to be closed every day.

The market price increases are also obvious. The average increase in import cotton price is more than 1800 yuan / ton, and the average increase price of domestic cotton is over 700 yuan / ton.

about

The market is not expected to be snapped up.

Judging from the paction situation, domestic cotton also nearly 100% turnover, and the turnover of more than 700 yuan, which is beyond the market expectations.

From the feedback of spot enterprises, there are a large number of traders joining the auction of national cotton stores, indicating that the situation of stockpiling is obvious.

The author believes that the domestic cotton quilt snap up situation shows that the domestic cotton spot market is indeed relatively tight, but the accession of traders has amplified the demand tension and played a role in boosting fuel consumption.

Last year, the situation of dumping and storage was poor. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was 1900 yuan / ton.

This year, the domestic and foreign cotton price difference was earlier than 100 yuan / ton, and now it rises to 900 yuan / ton.

The situation of dumping and storage is very good, which shows that the current situation of fundamentals has changed, and domestic demand has rebounded. The competitiveness of textile enterprises has been enhanced and the living conditions have improved.

From the base price of dumping and storage, there are nearly 100 yuan per ton per week. The main reason is the downward trend of international cotton prices, and domestic spot prices are rising gradually.

The cotton price difference between inside and outside is enlarged, and maintaining stability below 1000 yuan / ton may be the normal situation of the latter market.

But for the new year's cotton market, first of all, the cotton that will be thrown this year will meet the market demand from September to November, and there will be no market tension.

Secondly, the planting area of the main cotton producing countries in the international market has increased significantly in the new year. Under normal weather conditions, the output will increase by more than 1 million tons.

At the same time, the demand of the international market is occupied by China, and China's demand for cotton in the international market has been squeezed by national cotton reserves.

Therefore, the export pressure of the international market is very large.

As the state will also throw away the domestic and foreign cotton prices, the decline in foreign markets will be pmitted to the domestic spot market.

Although the dumping began in March, the market is expected to be reflected in January.

Therefore, I believe that we can buy the 1609 contract to reflect the basic situation of the shortage of resources in the spot market, but by selling 1701 contracts, we will avoid the negative impact of throwing and storing resources on the spot market and the looser pattern of the global market in the new year.