Cotton Futures Prices Trend Is Difficult To Measure Textile Enterprises Procurement Need To Be Cautious

The policy of state-owned cotton storage and landing has been adjusted dynamically, and this has undoubtedly given the market a reassurance.

However, due to the decline in the quality of new cotton and the limited import of cotton, the market demand for high-grade cotton is relatively strong.

At present, the storage time of the national reservoir is 2-3 years, and the quality grade is less than 3.

In the long run, the supply pressure is reduced, and the substitution of yarn and chemical fiber is also weakening. The negative factors have been gradually reduced, and the basic pattern has changed. In the long run, cotton prices have limited space.

In the short term, the factors restricting the space above the price should depend on the purchasing power of the enterprises.

At the same time, the market is not short of low price cotton, so the priority of exporting cotton is in line with market demand.

The industry believes that the current inventory of enterprises is not high, the downstream off-season, late replenishment needs, but will not release for a short time.

Therefore, it is not recommended for downstream enterprises to increase.

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It is understood that due to the continuous rise in cotton prices in China in 2011, and a record high, leading to a larger cost advantage of imported cotton, followed by the downward trend of the world economy, limited consumption, inventory backlog, cotton prices continued to fall.

However, in 2016, the price of cotton in China was close to the price of imported cotton, and the import profit was shrinking.

In recent years, because of the continuous low innovation of cotton prices, who has large inventories and who lose money, many enterprises have reduced their inventories to a low level, which leads to serious shortage of inventory in the current industrial chain.

In the medium to long term, the current industry generally expects that the rhythm of stocking cotton will be less than 2 million tons, with a very small volume.

The impact is not very big.

"From the historical trend of cotton prices, at the beginning of the year, less than 10000 yuan / ton has been in the low price range of nearly ten years. High inventory, low consumption and high substitution are the main basis for low prices and short strategy.

However, if one Yang changes three views, the fundamentals will be pformed instantaneously, the price ratio is low, and the macro expectation is good, which can bring upward rebound.

However, the continuous surge has hurt the market and the formation of the industry. There are already entities unable to judge the future trend.

Caution can only be maintained. "

Ren Xinpu, vice president of Yongan Futures Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters.

Ren Xinpu said that this strong rebound is not necessarily a sign of rising price of spot cotton, and the production of textile enterprises should be arranged according to their product mix and market demand.

It is recommended to pay attention to the import of cotton producing area, batch, quality index and place of bearing and storage, and do a good job in the inspection and pportation of the trading market.

Order is the foundation, price and quality are the key, impulse is the scourge.

Ren Xinpu pointed out that half a month ago, in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile enterprises, the survey showed that the order quantity was different, the starting rate was large, the differentiated enterprises were higher, the conventional yarn enterprises were lower, the colored spun yarn was better, the white yarn was worse, the high count yarn was better, and the low count yarn was slightly worse.

In terms of business efficiency, pure cotton spinning, low count yarn and conventional varieties have little achievement, and high count yarn and colored spun yarn are better.

Based on the expected decline in cotton prices, raw materials and yarn stocks are generally not high.

Futures prices reflect expectations, but in view of the current domestic and external situation of the textile industry and cotton consumption and cotton substitution, demand does not support a significant increase in cotton price raw materials.

For the post market price trend of cotton, Liu Yi said that at present, small businesses have gone bankrupt, and those who survive have a certain market share.

Now is the off-season consumption, terminal demand is not fully up, there is still demand for procurement in the late stage.