The A Share Market Is Expected To Come Out Of The Expected Outcome In September.

From the perspective of the history of A shares, whether the A shares resume the initial public offering (IPO) and refinancing function, or the introduction of margin trading, stock index futures, Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong, all take 3000 points as the axis. To be sure, A shares will not be able to restart IPO and launch registration system under 3000 o'clock in the future. The 3000 point is the logical starting point for A shares in the future. With the introduction of the overall plan "guiding opinions" and the subdivision scheme, the reform of state-owned enterprises will enter the stage of policy intensive promotion. All ministries and commissions attach great importance to and push forward the reform of state-owned enterprises, all of which show their determination to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises. It is estimated that the top-level design scheme of state-owned enterprises will be more likely to be introduced in the near future, which will bring the theme of SOE reform as the strongest "draught" for the end of the year.

First of all, we need to see clearly the factors leading to the recent three rounds of big slump: first, the first round of the market crash triggered by the allocation of capital and leverage; two, the fear of a series of negative effects brought about by the depreciation of the renminbi triggered the second round of the recent market crash; three, the third panic selling of clearing the off-site asset allocation.

Judging from the current market situation, De-leveraging Basically, the government and the central bank have said that there is no basis for continuous depreciation of the RMB, there is sufficient space and ability to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, there will not be a significant impact on the RMB assets due to the outflow of hot money, which will cause great impact on the RMB assets. The regulators will continue to strengthen the clearing of the over-the-counter capital allocation. According to the relevant statistics, the market value of the current allocation disk is around 200 billion yuan. Therefore, from the analysis of factors causing the three rounds of big falls, the release of these major risks has basically come to an end. In particular, management has recently focused on stabilizing investors' expectations as a major event, and timely announcements of operational principles and specific processes for various market management practices, so that investors can get to know the truth and avoid blind operation under asymmetric information, which is conducive to stabilizing expectations. At the same time, regulatory authorities are resolute in dealing with the chaos of transactions, acting decisively and covering a wide range, which will undoubtedly help restore investor confidence.

From the periphery market, on the morning of September 18th, the Fed issued a statement that it decided not to start the policy of raising interest rates. The Fed's statement says that the lack of vitality in global economic and financial development has led to the recent downward pressure on inflation. Therefore, the key interest rate remains unchanged at 0~0.25%. When to end the zero interest rate policy, which has been implemented for more than 6 years, there is no timetable yet. It is the visit of President Xi Jinping of the US China Summit to the three major projects that will attract more investors' attention. First, the construction of the US high-speed rail will start next year, and it will take 1.5 hours from gambling city to Hollywood. Item two, China and the United States will cooperate in Africa to develop clean energy items. Item three, the United States and the United States will brainstorm the building energy conservation foundation of China and the United States.

As for external concerns China's economy Slowing down, the stock market fluctuates, and Chinese central authorities frequently voicing: the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said that the stock market adjustment has been basically in place; finance minister Lou Jiwei said that the Chinese economy will maintain about 7% growth in the next 5 years, in other words, the economic adjustment will last for about 5 years, but the economic adjustment space (low point) is around 7%. In response to the possible increase in interest rates in the United States, the head of the safe said on the eve of the Fed's interest rate negotiations, the pressure of RMB depreciation has basically been released, and the RMB exchange rate has generally recovered at present.

President Xi Jinping met with the US representative who attended the seventh round of dialogue between Chinese and US business leaders and senior officials in September 17th. He said that China's economy still has great potential, and China is fully qualified to maintain high growth in the medium and long term.

There is no doubt that China's greatest potential is reform. Only by reform can we understand the market and arouse the popularity of the market. We find that the attention of the current securities market has shifted from the rescue of the national team to the sudden acceleration of the reform process of local state-owned enterprises. This may be a good weapon to break the current economic transformation and stock market deadlock. The use of state owned SOEs reform to revitalize the capital market sentiment is a double choice. Statistics show that there are more than 1000 state controlled listed companies in A shares, accounting for 40% of the total number of listed companies, and the total market capitalization accounts for nearly 60% of the total market capitalization of A shares. Mainstream institutions generally believe that the local state owned SOE reform is a major move in recent years, and related stocks are the main investment directions in the fourth quarter of this year.

Be regarded as " Reform of state-owned enterprises In the first year of 2015, there was only one last quarter left. It can be seen from the work report of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) that the mixed ownership, merger and reorganization, the overall listing and the pilot of state-owned capital investment companies have been established as the main measures to promote the reform of state-owned assets in various localities, and will pry the market value of 24 trillion. "1+N" top-level design landing many brokers released the mid and four quarter strategy report, without exception, optimistic about the theme of state-owned enterprises reform, and that the main line of investment or will run through the A shares in the next 5 years, not only to restructure their own performance and valuation is expected to double rise, but also to inject fresh blood into the A share market, for investors, state-owned enterprise reform is a long-term investment opportunity that can not be missed.