Cotton'S Global Supply And Demand Pattern Improves

In February 20th, the US Department of agriculture forecast the global cotton supply and demand in 2015/2016 in the 2015 Agricultural Outlook Forum.

Judging from the forecast supply and demand balance sheet, the overall supply and demand pattern of the global cotton industry has improved over the next year, and the output has been reduced, and the consumption and ending stocks have slightly improved, but the stock is still huge.

Next year

Production is expected to reduce production by 13%, also to the recent trend of US cotton to support, there may be some short-term reduction in production speculation.

China, under the guidance of national policy guidance,

Consumption has also been gradually restored, while high inventory has also started the process of de stocking, but it is estimated that this is a long way to go.

To sum up, the author thinks that the international market is in the US cotton market.

Sales figures are good and India's takeover support is strong, but due to China's import restrictions, India cotton export shrinking is inevitable, and this will drag down cotton prices in the late stage.

In the short term, the domestic market is supported by the internal procurement of cotton corps and the price of the domestic market. It is estimated that the recent downward space of cotton prices will be limited. If the textile enterprises in March are stocking up for the summer peak season of consumption, the intensity of the replenishment will be large.

In the medium and long term, considering the development trend of cotton supply and demand in the end of this year and the following year, it is expected that cotton prices will continue to rise slowly in the medium and long term.

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According to statistics from the US cotton export sales, as of February 19th, the United States signed a net total of 2 million 195 thousand tons of cotton for 2014/2015, including 2 million 144 thousand tons of land cotton, and 987 thousand tons of cotton and 45% of the shipment.

From the current US cotton export contract speed, this year's sales progress is obviously higher than the nearly five years average level, only below 2010 year.

Data show that the first half of this year, the United States completed 96% of the total annual exports of the United States, and the sales pressure is very small in the latter half of the year, which will also support the US cotton.

The good export sales data of US cotton make the focus of international market in the later stage turn to India market.

According to the US Department of agriculture's forecast of supply and demand in February, India's cotton output reached 6 million 641 thousand tons this year, with an expected consumption of only 5 million 225 thousand tons and a surplus of 1 million 416 thousand tons.

However, the import volume of the world's largest cotton importer in this year has been greatly reduced by 1 million 486 thousand tons due to import quotas. Other importing countries have not changed much.

Exporting countries, the largest exporter, has seen a slight increase in US exports. As of now, the sales figures are good and have completed 96% of the sales volume of the whole year.

And this year, the purchase of cotton imports in China focused on good quality cotton, cotton and so on. The market for India cotton has shrunk dramatically, so the restriction of China's import quotas has directly led to the shrinkage of cotton exports in India.

Although the purchase and storage of CCI company in India this year has a short support for India's domestic cotton prices, it is expected that after the completion of the India acquisition period, CCI will focus on the acquisition and storage of the market and turn to store and sell. Therefore, with the increase in the number of dumping and storage of CCI companies and the shrinking of expected exports, the cotton industry in India will face greater sales pressure in the future, thus inhibiting the global cotton price and yarn price, and the price of Chinese cotton yarn will also be suppressed.