RMB Entering Two-Way Volatility "New Normal"

Yu Yongding, a member of the Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with reporters that changes in the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar in 2015 should take account of the changes in the balance of payments and the central bank's exchange rate policy. Under the trade item, exports may be slightly better than that in 2014 in 2015, and the growth rate of export revenue should be improved. Due to the decline of raw material and commodity prices and the weakening import demand, the growth rate of import expenditure should be reduced.

As a result, China's terms of trade will be better in 2015 and the current account surplus should also increase. Although the possibility of improving the current account is relatively determined, the change of capital account is more difficult to predict. Under the capital account, because of the withdrawal of the US QE, the trend of the appreciation of the US dollar will be strengthened, thus strengthening the trend of short-term capital outflow.

At the same time, as China's economy has entered the "new normal" with relatively low growth rate, the inflow of FDI will probably decrease. On the other hand, due to the pressure of domestic overcapacity and the introduction of foreign investment facilitation measures, coupled with the capital outflow caused by the "one by one" policy, there may be a deficit in capital account. The trend of RMB exchange rate depends on China's balance of payments. Trade surplus, capital account deficit, the balance between the two, which is bigger? RMB appreciation or depreciation? Uncertainty is bigger.

However, as the Central Bank of China has a strong ability to intervene, the change trend of RMB in 2015 ultimately depends on the central bank's exchange rate policy. In view of the current economic situation in China, the central bank may be optimistic about the moderate depreciation of the renminbi. On the other hand, the central bank may hope that the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has increased. As a result, the RMB exchange rate will show a two-way fluctuation in 2015, but the general trend may be depreciation.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank of China (601166, stock bar) believes that similar to 2014, China's economy still faces greater downward pressure in 2015. The differentiation of global monetary policy will further benefit the US dollar and the bad money is not the US currency. 2015 will be a year of adherence to the direction of "foreign exchange reform". It is expected that the two-way fluctuation of RMB will be intensified, and the overall balance will be increased. dollar Weak, showing a controllable depreciation trend, but it is uncertain whether depreciation of a basket of currencies.

Zhao Qingming, chief macroeconomic researcher at the Beijing Institute of financial derivatives, said the yuan was a big dollar against the US dollar. depreciation It's unlikely. There are more and more factors influencing exchange rate changes. Central bank intervention, economic growth, trade data and tightening monetary policy will have an impact on it. With the expectation of market participants differentiation, the possibility of a significant depreciation should not happen.

Since March 17, 2014, the central bank has extended the daily fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate to 2%. Experts estimate that exchange rate volatility will be more significant in 2015.

Zhao Qingming said that the renminbi was traded against the US dollar in 2014. exchange rate The volatility will be around 3.7%, and the 2015 wave will probably expand to 5%. To promote the marketization of exchange rate and increase market participants, such as allowing brokers to enter the foreign exchange market, relax the business capital account and personal foreign exchange, relax the principle of foreign exchange transactions, and improve the liquidity and flexibility of the foreign exchange market.

Regarding the action of the central bank at the exchange rate level, one of the leading players in the financial market, Yu Yongding believes that the central bank will not intervene if there is no black swan event, that is, the fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar.

Lu commissar suggested that we should reduce the intervention of the central bank and accelerate the marketization so as to maintain a reasonable and balanced fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar. We should pay attention to the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate and turn to the perfection of the exchange rate formation mechanism. The market mechanism should be designed so that the effective exchange rate of RMB will not continue to be overvalued and the range of daily fluctuation will continue to expand.