PTA: It Will Take Some Time To Get Stronger.

Since May, the implementation of PTA reduction alliance has been better. From 5 to August, the PTA operating rate decreased month by month. But as the alliance broke down, PTA Operating rate After October, it rapidly climbed to around 75%, plus a lot of PTA capacity has been added this year, and the total capacity base has expanded, so the absolute supply of PTA has increased considerably.

stay PTA Production load has been greatly increased, PTA production efficiency has declined, but because PX prices have been weak recently, so the loss margin of PTA has not been substantially enlarged. It is still within the acceptable scope of PTA factory, so the power of PTA production is therefore not large.

and PX Compared with the weakness of the PTA link, the performance of polyester and terminal links is slightly better, and the downstream rigid demand remains. The price decline of products is less than that of raw materials, and the profit situation has increased significantly. In October polyester plant stocks dropped considerably, and some varieties of stocks fell to a low point in the year.

Under the coordination of production and marketing, the downstream operation in October was performing well. The polyester load increased from 71.1% at the end of September to 79.3%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased from 77% to 81%.

On the whole, the most important profits are still from the upstream, while the downstream market is relatively healthy. Under the general backdrop of commodities, the pressure of supply from PX and PTA has made this weak price worse. The rally started in mid May, thanks to PX and PTA's big reduction in production, but the loss of PX and PTA is far from the level of May, so the production capacity of production enterprises is not big enough, and PTA's short term strength is still needed.

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Recently, the US dollar continued to strengthen, WTI crude oil fell below 80 US dollars / barrel platform, and commodities reappeared weak. As the most vulnerable species in chemical futures, PTA's main contract quickly fell below the low of 5502 yuan / tonne in mid October, and is now dropping to 5300 yuan / ton. Looking at the PTA industry chain, cost down and supply easing are two main factors.

Under the dragging down of crude oil, most of the intermediate prices of petrochemical products moved rapidly down. PX has fallen significantly in the past month, and FOB Korean spot price has fallen directly from the US $1000 / ton mark near the end of September to US $1200 / tonne.

PX is weak. Besides the impact of falling crude oil, the huge supply is also an important reason.

Although the price of PX has dropped recently, the operation rate of Asian PX devices has hardly been adjusted, and the PX market is facing a high inventory problem. In September, the import volume of PX in China has historically broken through the 1 million tons mark, reaching 1 million 6 thousand tons, adding more pressure to the fragile PX market.

From the profit situation, as the price of PX falls, PX production profit is compressed. In November, PX and stone naphtha oil price dropped to below US $300 / tonne. It has entered a deficit state, but the loss is not large, and the loss time is not long, so the power of suppliers to reduce production substantially is not large. The failure of the US $1000 / ton mark also greatly undermined market confidence, and the cost of PTA continued to move down to suppress PTA futures prices.