Industrial Chain Profit Redistribution PTA Will Stabilize Or Rebound

In August, the price of PX in FOB Korea and CFR China Taiwan showed a marked downward trend. The cumulative decline in the two months was more than 100 US dollars / ton, and the increase in supply, the decline in demand and the low price of upstream raw materials jointly contributed to the downward trend of PX prices.

However, despite the continuous decline in the price of PX in August, the price of naphtha and MX in the same period also went down at the same time, and there was no obvious loss in PX production enterprises.

As of September 3rd,

The price difference between naphtha and PX MX is 390 US dollars / ton and 167 US dollars / ton respectively. The profit of naphtha PX is still around 100 US dollars / ton at the cost of processing 300 US dollars / ton and 180 US dollars / ton, while the profit of MX PX is near the break even line.

Therefore, only when PX production profit is further squeezed, its price can be stabilized effectively.

In the short term, the probability of PX maintaining weakness is larger.

With the lower price of upstream PX raw materials, the efficiency of domestic PTA production enterprises in August has obviously improved. In the middle of the month, there has been a long lost profit situation. But when the production efficiency is improving, some manufacturers' willingness to sell spot is obviously strengthened, resulting in the spot price losing steadily. The difference between high and low price in the month is nearly 500 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price of the internal market is approaching the integer mark of 7000 yuan / ton.

In August, the PTA company suffered a heavy loss in the early stage, and the probability of maintaining it near the break even line was larger.

However, although some enterprises increased the intensity of spot selling, the average operating rate of domestic PTA production enterprises in August was still low, and the average monthly operating rate was around 62%. The reason why the rate of operation started to drop so low was that the aim was to match the low opening rate of polyester enterprises and not to rapidly accumulate inventory.

Therefore, as long as the production enterprises in the alliance can strictly control the operating rate, there will be relatively limited room for PTA prices to continue to fall in the future.

Polyester industry cash flow obviously improved

8 beginning in mid and late June, domestic demand for terminal textile began to pick up, and PTA and MEG prices continued to decline. The cash flow of polyester enterprises was negative, especially at the end of next month, and the profits of all polyester products were above 100 yuan / ton.

At the same time, polyester production and sales also increased slightly compared with the previous period, the characteristics of the peak season began to appear.

From the start rate of polyester industry, the operating rate in August was 67.5%, only slightly higher than 66.7% in February. It has been down for fourth consecutive months.

However, beginning in mid 8, with the increase of loom operating rate, polyester start-up rate also increased slowly.

Therefore, in the polyester industry cash flow improvement, rigid demand for PTA price support is more obvious.

In short, with the rational distribution of profits in the industrial chain, the price of PTA will be stabilized or rebounded. On the operation, it is suggested that the 1501 contracts should be involved in the bargain. The reference interval of multiple entries is 6600 - 6700 yuan / ton, and the target interval is 6900 - 7000 yuan / ton. Once it falls through the 6550 - 6500 yuan / ton interval, it is necessary to strictly stop the loss.