Zhang Wei: Euro Easing Monetary Policy Is A Foregone Conclusion.

< p > < strong > 1: fundamental analysis < /strong > < /p >

On the day of "P", Germany issued more disappointing data, such as falling import prices and rising unemployment rate. So did France. The unemployment rate rose and consumer prices fell.

Affected by this, investors are buying European bonds.

The price of 10 - year German bonds and British Treasury bonds has risen by more than 3%.

Bond prices backed down, lowering interest rates.

The decline in interest rates in the euro zone has weakened the attractiveness of the euro denominated assets to investors, as the rate of return has declined.

On the stock market, the world's major stock indexes are mixed.

The three major U.S. stock indexes generally fell, ending the positive trend of the four consecutive increases.

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There was no significant "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "economic data < /a > announcement on the day of the US. Investors were cautious when the stock market hit a new high. Most European stock indexes rose, reversing the previous five trading days, the Asian stock index rose collectively, the us strong data stimulated market confidence and Japanese stocks rose 0.24%." P "

On Wednesday, international gold prices continued to fall under pressure, tensions eased in Eastern Europe and strong US economic data prompted investors to sell gold, and gold closed at $1257.85 on that day, hitting a new low of 18 Monday.

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For most of May P, gold prices hovered around $1300 an ounce. Investors were weighing the consequences of the political conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the improvement of the US economic situation.

This balance has been tilted in the past few days. Last weekend, the presidential election in Ukraine successfully ended, and Russia expressed its willingness to work with the new government.

With the easing of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, investors believe that the need to hold gold is lower.

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< p > foreign exchange market, as of the end of the day, the exchange market ended at 1 euros to 1.3592 U.S. dollars, lower than the previous trading day of 1.3633 U.S. dollars; 1 pounds to 1.6708 U.S. dollars, lower than the previous trading day of 1.6807 U. S. dollars, 1 Australian dollars to 0.9230 yuan, lower than the previous day 0.9255 U. S. dollars, 1 U. S. dollars to 101.78 yen, higher than the previous day's yen.

According to the data released by the German government on Wednesday, the number of unemployed people unexpectedly increased by about 24 thousand in May, which almost completely reversed the downward trend of 25 thousand people in April, which is contrary to the average expectation of economists who have dropped 15 thousand in May.

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< p > the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% in that month.

In addition, the data released by the European Central Bank showed that the lending scale of euro zone banks to euro zone enterprises continued to decline in April, indicating that the index continued to decline for nearly two years.

This seems to mean that any member of the euro zone can not be independent when effective stimulus easing monetary policy continues to fail. This further reduces the threshold of the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts and even purchases of debt.

A survey released at the same time shows that it is widely expected that the ECB will deposit interest rates from zero to -0.1% at the June policy meeting, and that the refinancing rate may also fall from 0.25% to 0.1%.

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< p > in a total of 48 economists interviewed, 31 said that lowering the deposit interest rate to below zero would provide new long-term funds for banks to provide loans to SMEs. The so-called long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) was also launched to help boost euro zone credit.

The ECB has been avoiding the easing policy for quite some time, but the European Central Bank may have to take action because the economic growth and inflation do not show signs of recovery, coupled with the liquidity crisis caused by the lack of interbank dismantling in the money market.

At the policy press conference at the beginning of May, the ECB President Delaki pointed out clearly that the June meeting might be the right time for the European Central Bank to introduce more easing measures, which made investors full of expectation.

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There are many important economic data published in the United States during the "P" day, and the trend of the foreign exchange market will come to the climax of this week.

First, investors in the Asian market can pay close attention to retail sales in Japan. This week, the US dollar and Japanese yen were mainly under the pressure of lower US bond yields. Japan's domestic economic data have limited impact on the yen. If the data is again improving, the US dollar will continue to bear pressure on the Japanese yen.

In addition, Australia's first quarter capital spending is also worth noting. Recently, China's weak data has put pressure on the Australian dollar, and Australia's domestic data will also have a short impact on the Australian dollar.

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< p > secondly, investors should pay attention to the current account data of the first quarter of Canada. Recently, the Canadian dollar has been sell-off because of the fall in international oil prices. The Canadian economic data are less published, so the impact of Canadian data on Canadian dollar is more important.

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P is also the most important. Investors should pay special attention to a series of important economic data released in the evening.

These include the number of unemployed Americans in the early weeks of the week, the first quarter of the US GDP and the US housing sales figures.

Whether the US economic data will continue to be strong in the beginning of this week and whether the US dollar index will continue to maintain upward trend will be answered by US data tonight.

If the data is better, it will boost the US index and vice versa.

More about the technical analysis of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > > foreign exchange gold < /a > please pay attention to the Zhang Wei foreign exchange video solution of potato Youku" /p ".

< p > < strong > Two: < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > > Technical Analysis < /a > < /strong > /p >

< p > Gold strategy analysis: < /p >

< p > gold continued its recent decline and is now trading near 1255.

At present, the short term average lines are obviously arranged in a short way, which has broken through the adjustment trend of the previous stage and opened up a downward trend.

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< p > main strategy: 1263 near short, target 1250, stop loss 1267 < /p >

Strategic analysis of < p > Euro: < /p >

< p > euro continued to the new low to 1.3590, the technical average line is obviously empty, the main level trend has been restarted the downstream channel, the future trend is empty.

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< p > main strategy: 1.3615 near short, target 1.3560, stop loss 1.3640 < /p >

< p > pound strategy analysis: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 1.6745 near short, target 1.6680, stop loss 1.6780 < /p >

< p > US Japan strategy analysis: < /p >

< p > main strategy: 101.80 near short, target 101.40, stop loss 102 < /p >