Industry: RMB Depreciation Or Pave The Way For Two-Way Fluctuations

< p > April 30th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar ended five consecutive days, down 24 basis points to 6.1580 compared with the previous trading day.

With the callback of the middle price, the spot market of the RMB fell again, which has maintained a larger deviation from the middle price in recent years, hitting a minimum of 6.2669, which has reached a new low of nearly a year and a half, closing at 6.2591, leading to 6.26.

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< p > recalling the first four months of this year, the RMB has been falling at a complex domestic and international environment: the spot exchange rate of the US dollar to RMB has dropped from 6.05 in December 31, 2013 to 6.26 on the 30 day, and the depreciation rate has reached 3.47%, which has completely recalled the 2.83% rise in 2013's spot exchange rate.

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< p > < < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > /a > depreciation, no matter the magnitude and duration is the first time since the 2005 exchange rate mechanism reform. Its factors are also complicated. The main reason is that the unilateral appreciation of RMB has caused the imbalance of the market for a long time. The influx of hot money and the prevalence of arbitrage have caused the RMB exchange rate to deviate from the equilibrium level, and the market needs to be adjusted urgently.

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< p > at the same time, the downward pressure on China's macro-economy since the beginning of this year and the gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing policy by the United States have led to the return of funds, which has prompted the RMB to weaken.

Bank of China Guangdong branch exchange rate analysis said.

"In fact, policy objectives or greater fluctuations, rather than sustained depreciation."

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< p > Standard Chartered Bank believes that this devaluation is the reaction of the market to the central bank's implementation of RMB a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > /a > from 1% to 2% in March 17th.

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< p > to observe the trend of RMB in recent two months, we can see that the fluctuation rate of RMB spot exchange rate has expanded significantly.

On the day of the implementation of the new policy, the RMB depreciated 0.45% in March 17th, and continued to decline in March 30th, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > depreciation > /a > 0.5%. After March 24th, the RMB appreciated by 0.58%, and then the exchange rate continued to decline until the end of April.

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< p > "the unilateral depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is a manifestation of the widening of the RMB amplitude. This indicates that the central bank has basically withdrawn from normal foreign exchange intervention, seeking to establish a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, and the trend of two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate in the future will become more obvious and will become the norm."

Lu Lei, Dean of Guangdong Finance Institute, said.

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