China's Foreign Trade Has Remained The Most Volatile One Year, And Its Momentum Is Still Strong.

< p > a series of market dynamics show that after years of rare fluctuations and doubts about the market, China's huge foreign trade capacity seems to have passed the "most difficult" moment, and is expected to achieve the growth target set at the beginning of the year. Over the next period of time, China's a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107" > Import and export < /a > is likely to maintain a good momentum in the near future. < /p >
Less than 67% of the 529 Chinese export suppliers surveyed in October this year expect export earnings to increase in the first half of 2014. More than 65% of the surveyed suppliers expect an increase in export earnings in the first half of next year compared with the same period this year, according to a survey conducted by a reputable market Consultancy. < /p >
Pei Ke, President of global resources enterprise affairs, who conducted the survey, pointed out that, despite good expectations, most of the respondents said that rising production costs further eroded profits, so the growth rate of export earnings in the next six months is expected to be moderate in P. On the other hand, because of the rising cost, suppliers are forced to raise their prices even in the face of pressure from buyers. "The rising price of products is not only due to high cost, but also the inevitable result of upgrading China's manufacturing industry from low-end to high-end, so as to ensure long-term competitiveness. High end manufacturing, independent brand production and original design and manufacture will ensure China's status as a world export power. " He said. < /p >
< p > customs data show that in November this year, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 9.3%, of which exports amounted to US $202 billion 200 million, a record high, reaching 12.7% in the second half of the year. This achievement also made the overall growth of China's foreign trade in the first 11 months of this year reached 7.7%, close to the expected increase of 8% in the beginning of this year. < /p >
Shen Danyang, a spokesman for China's a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112108" > commerce department < /a >, said that the growth of imports and exports in November, especially export growth was relatively fast. This is the result of the superposition effect of China's steady growth in foreign trade, the policy effect of structural adjustment and the improvement of domestic and international economic situation in the second half of the year. He said exports are expected to maintain a good momentum in December, but "they should not be too optimistic". < /p >
< p > this kind of "cautious optimism" has its own reasons. From the first quarter of the first quarter of this year, the growth rate was more than 13%, and the two quarter after the sharp decline to the growth rate of less than 5% or even the negative growth in a single month, then to the moderate growth in the early three quarter and the "unexpected" weakness in 9 and October. "This year's large fluctuations in China's foreign trade are due to many factors, including the uncertainty in the global market recovery, and the large scale false arbitrage trade in some parts of the country at the beginning of the year, resulting in distortion of the foreign trade data. All these factors make the stability of the foreign trade situation a difficult problem." Xiao Yaofei, Professor of the World Economic Research Institute of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, said. < /p >
< p > therefore, some market participants also worry about the possibility of "bubble" for the remarkable growth in November. Shen Danyang said that the arbitrage trade that had appeared this year mainly concentrated on some special commodities, and from the perspective of product composition, "the export growth in November is more widely distributed", for example, the export of traditional labor intensive products bags, footwear and toys grew by more than 25% year-on-year, which is quite different from the previous situation. < /p >
< p > in the view of some businessmen and economists, the sharp fluctuation of foreign trade this year has struck a deeper alarm. Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that the fluctuation of foreign trade data and even the "distortion" and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB were seriously overestimated and the high interest rates in China's domestic market. "These are necessary conditions for arbitrage. When the exchange rate volatility is small enough, arbitrage capital flows into China through foreign trade channels", and this situation has not changed fundamentally. < /p >
< p > market survey also reflects this concern. Pei Kewei said that in the global resources survey, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112105" > RMB appreciation /a > has become the biggest challenge facing Chinese exporters, while SMEs and emerging market companies are the most influential ones. This year, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 2%. "In recent months, currencies in some emerging market countries have depreciated against the US dollar, which has also made Chinese products more expensive in the local market." "It shows that China's export industry must be reformed to ensure its long-term competitiveness," he said. "Measures include the internationalization of the renminbi." < /p >
< p > but RMB appreciation is not all bad news for China's foreign trade industry. Against this background, Chinese enterprises have won the time window to invest overseas, which is also regarded as an inevitable market result. In the first 11 months of this year, Chinese investors made direct investments in 4522 overseas enterprises in 156 countries and regions in the world, totaling 80 billion 240 million dollars in non-financial direct investment, an increase of more than 28% over the same period last year. In contrast, China's actual use of foreign capital in November of this year was 105 billion 506 million US dollars, an increase of 5.48% compared with the same period last year, while 20434 newly established enterprises with foreign investment decreased by 9.19% compared to the same period last year. "Affected by the appreciation of the renminbi, rising domestic production costs and the changing demand of other markets, the pace of foreign investment of Chinese enterprises will only accelerate, and will surpass China's efforts to absorb foreign investment in the near future." Pei Kewei said. < /p >