Analysis Of Market Trend Of Imported Cotton In Recent Years

The India authorities have announced that 2012/13 will no longer restrict cotton exports in the year of 2012/13, and that funds and commercial purchases on the ICE disk are hard to be stimulated. The market has no pressure on fundamentals and capital support. But in the United States or before Christmas, an agreement will be reached to avoid financial cliff, high grain market consolidation and the Chinese government. cotton The main contract of ICE failed to fall sharply as expected, while the contract in March was still searching for a fulcrum between 71-73 cents / pound.

Some foreign businessmen believe that, due to the large number of cotton producing countries in the world, and the low demand of major cotton consuming countries and the weak cotton prices, the arrival of cotton in China's main ports will continue to pick up after the beginning of December. In addition, it is expected that the quantity of cotton import quotas will be very limited and the policy of dumping and storage in the medium and long term will pave the way. The increase in cotton and Port Bonded cotton and customs clearance cotton will be relatively limited in the ICE and far months. Some domestic cotton companies and traders are strongly expecting ICE futures to return to below 70 cents. They are more enthusiastic about the 80 cents / pound or even 78 cents / pound below the US cotton and India cotton.

In November 29th, the quotations for bonded cotton and cleared cotton linen in various main ports in China basically remained unchanged. On the one hand, the import quotas were seriously inadequate, and the quotations were mostly above 82 cents / pound (40% tariff import prices were high). The domestic cotton enterprises and traders cut down on the inquiry and order of bonded cotton. On the other hand, from the beginning of December, 2012/13 cotton, India cotton and a small amount of West African cotton will arrive in succession, and the choice of cotton mills and import enterprises will increase. According to convention, the relevant departments of the state will announce and issue 894 thousand tons of 1% tariff cotton import quotas before and after the end of December. Because of a few large and medium-sized cotton Spin The company has already overdrawn quotas ahead of the 70 main contract of the ICE main contract, so it is expected that the import volume of cotton will rise significantly in 1-3 months of 2013.

Singapore Cotton merchant It is said that due to the record of China's reserve cotton inventory and the fact that China's cotton consumption in 2013 is still not optimistic, there are not many opportunities left for international cotton traders to sign their orders. Therefore, it is necessary to seize the opportunity to use cotton enterprises to "catch the wind" before the issuance of import quotas. Some foreign businessmen believe that the quota of processing trade cotton imports in 2013 will also become an important tool for market circulation and inter enterprise transfer. In November 29th, an import company in Qingdao quoted price: India cotton S-61-5/32 "(2012/13 new cotton) quoted price is 19100 yuan / ton, West Africa SM1-1/8" level 19300 yuan / ton, Pakistan 15301-3/32 "quoted price 18500 yuan / ton.