Reveal The Secrets Of Storage And The Secrets Of Market Acquisition

In a trading room of a financial institution in Chaoyang District, Beijing, 16 to 16:25 every day is the most stressful one.

During trading hours, traders who hide there are staring at the computer screen in front of them, ready to press the mouse, and the other side of the screen is about spot pactions of cotton.

"Do you confirm that you want to submit the current count: 60"? When we saw this reminder, trader Liang Jiayu (a pseudonym) breathed a sigh of relief, but soon he returned to disappointment, because his subsequent "confirmation" was not successful, and he got a reply that "it's late, this click is invalid."

Since October 30th this year, every working day in the afternoon, before many computers in the country, there are many Liang Jiayu repeating such an action that is easy to fail. Behind them, it represents a special group -- cotton storage and storage enterprises.

According to the notice issued by the Central Cotton store in September 10th this year on the start of the 2012 cotton temporary purchase and storage (hereinafter referred to as the "announcement"), the acquisition and storage paction is carried out through the national cotton trading market storage and storage system. Liang Jiayu is facing such a system, which is also a temporary storage and storage of cotton in second years.

"You never know what will happen in just 1 seconds or even 0.01 seconds."

Liang Jiayu, who represents a cotton storage and storage enterprise in Xinjiang, murmured.

In the notice, it is said that the purchase and storage will not be restricted by quantity and open purchase. However, in order to sell the cotton that meets the requirements at the "market price" to the central storage cotton, the cotton storage and storage business must first compete in the national cotton market paction system.

Why do we need to pay the storage index? Why do we need to pay the storage index? Where did the cotton business become tight? What is the difference between this year's cotton market and the previous years? In mid November, with these questions, the reporter went to Shandong, a major cotton producing province, to investigate.

Our newspaper reporter found that behind the tension of Cotton Traders' storage, the cotton market is in a slump, and the cotton business has no choice but to look forward to stabilizing the cotton production, operators and cotton enterprises' market expectations, protecting cotton farmers' expectations, and ensuring that the market supply of cotton "to the market" has failed to play its biggest efficiency.

The secret of saving

Tracing back to the experience of Liang Jia, we should issue a notice on the issuance of new ways to store and store the cotton reserves in 2012 (2012) (hereinafter referred to as the "4 announcement"), which stipulates that the paction mode of cotton purchase and storage will be mentioned, and the deeper level is the resonance between the market price and the market price in October 30th.

According to "Notice No. 4", before 15:00 every trading day, the central storage cotton and the national cotton trading market split the number of storage and storage of various storage warehouses into a number of independent storage and acquisition indicators, and then displayed in parallel in the cotton purchase and storage paction system, the purchase and storage index came from here.

"At 16:00 o'clock that day, all eligible dealers can participate in the auction at the same time."

Until the "16:25 of the day, the trading system entered the closed market countdown, there was no new click in 1 minutes, the system closed."

"Every trader participating in the paction can only send a valid click every 10 seconds, and the same dealer's repeated clicks within 10 seconds are regarded as invalid instructions by the system."

The Announcement No. 4 stipulates that this is the technical reason why Liang Jia is busy.

Prior to the "notice" has stipulated that the purchase and storage pactions through the national cotton trading market storage and storage system, why in more than a month later, there is more than a storage index?

"In order to avoid the interference of individual enterprises in using improper means to deal with the trading system, and ensure the fairness and impartiality of the temporary storage and purchase of cotton, we have decided to improve the cotton purchase and storage paction mode after having submitted approval to the relevant departments."

China Cotton store issued "Announcement No. 4" at the same time explained.

Many industry insiders interviewed by our reporter said that the reason why some enterprises use unfair means to interfere with the trading system is to sell more cotton because of the domestic cotton market downturn.

According to China cotton net September 10th data, the cotton purchase and storage start date, the three level (standard 328) cotton spot quotation is 18754 yuan / ton, and the three grade cotton temporary storage and purchase price in 2012 is 20400 yuan / ton, and the price difference is close to 1700 yuan / ton per ton, which has become a direct driving factor for many cotton storage enterprises to fight cotton flower purchase and storage paction system.

Apart from the price difference, the choice of storage is also related to the survival of the enterprise.

Wucheng Xinghai

Feng Weiqing, general manager of the company, calculated a cost account for our reporter. The seed cotton purchased from the company needed to be processed, and the processing fee became a part of the cost of storing and storing, reaching 19500 yuan to 19600 yuan / ton.

If we need to remove the necessary expenses such as interest on bank loans and pportation costs, the cost of storing and storing cotton will soon climb to nearly 20000 yuan / ton.

This also means that according to the state's open purchase price of three yuan cotton 20400 yuan / ton to calculate, each ton can only maintain 300 yuan to 400 yuan of profits, and if you choose to sell the market price, referring to the September 10th standard 328 cotton spot 18754 yuan / ton offer, the loss per ton is more than 1000 yuan.

If it is a grade four cotton, the purchase price of the cotton can only be maintained at 19800 yuan / ton, and the purchase price is basically the same as the cost.

Besides, location factors can not be ignored.

A Futures Company chief who did not want to be named revealed to reporters that the reality of the robbing took place in Akesu, Korla, Bachu and other places in southern Xinjiang.

The reason is that the total output of Xinjiang cotton area is huge, and the number of storage enterprises is quite large, and the storage capacity is relatively limited. In order to achieve storage as soon as possible, there will be an embarrassment of "one vote is hard to find" similar to the Spring Festival pport.

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The official said that Xinjiang has always been a cotton export province rather than a major consumer destination.

The purpose of building warehouses is to solve the problem of pit pportation rather than cotton storage.

"Now, in order to solve the storage problem, the quantity and scale of inventory are obviously insufficient, so it will be more stressful when it comes to storage."

"If the area of Xinjiang is large, if the cotton pportation in the southern Xinjiang is carried out in Northern Xinjiang, it will increase pportation costs and squeeze profits."

Wu Haifang, manager of Investment Department of Shandong Shandong cotton Group Co., Ltd., told our reporter.

For inland enterprises in China, pport costs are also considered.

Yu Shufang, general manager of Shandong Wucheng Tianyuan Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. told our reporter that although Wucheng also had a purchasing library, all the people considered were close to storage, so that the pportation cost could reach the lowest level and the profit maximization would be achieved.

"Wucheng county is the largest cotton processing and purchasing center in China. When the temporary storage capacity is still unable to meet the large demand, it is easy to generate tension in storage and storage."

Yu Shufang said.

Feng Weiqing said, "although there are five contracts in the factory now, we haven't told us to send them because of some tight stock."

According to China's cotton net data, as of November 27th, the Central Cotton store planned to store and store 2012 tons of cotton 117680 tons in November 27th. The actual turnover was 47490 tons, with a turnover rate of 40.36%, of which the mainland planned to collect and store 93680 tons. The actual turnover was 23490 tons, with a turnover rate of 25.07%.

Farmers do not grow cotton.

According to our reporter interviewed in Wucheng County, Shandong, enterprises compete for reserve targets. Meanwhile, according to the notice, cotton farmers can not sell cotton directly to the central storage cotton according to the market price.

The bulletin shows that if it wants to become a storage enterprise, it is not only "an enterprise legal person registered with the State Administration for Industry and commerce", but also a "cotton enterprise with 400 types of cotton processing qualification". In addition, it has "general taxpayer qualification and can issue special invoices for value-added tax".

For cotton farmers, selling cotton is still market behavior. First, sell seed cotton to the enterprises that are eligible for storage. The enterprises will process seed cotton into lint, and sell them to cotton reserves according to the standard of storage.

In the accounting office of Wucheng Xinghai cotton Co., Ltd., a group of Cotton Traders selling seed cotton are rushing to register with the staff responsible for the purchase.

Outside the window, the staff were responsible for weighing and weighing the cotton on the tricycle.

A Liu farmer complained to our reporter: "cotton processing plants do not make money, but cotton farmers do not make money."

The farmers said that if they planted an acre of land, they could produce 500 Jin to 600 Jin of seed cotton in the normal year. The average market price now is about 4 yuan per catty, so that they will get gross income from 2000 yuan to 2400 yuan.

But this year, affected by typhoon Davi, there are only about 400 catties per mu, and the quality has dropped a lot.

Compared to the two crops in the year, the wheat (2504, -4.00, -0.16%) price is 1.1 yuan / Jin this year, the average yield per mu is about 1000 kg. Because of the small cotton business, the whole process of planting can only rely entirely on labor, which is time-consuming and laborious. In addition, the planting of wheat has nearly 150 yuan per mu, which also makes planting wheat much more beneficial than planting cotton.

When asked about the reasonable price of the seed cotton, the farmers repeatedly stressed: "when the seed cotton price is kept at least 5 yuan per catty, cotton farmers will have the enthusiasm to grow cotton."

Yu Baorui, general manager of tengan Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., Wucheng County, Shandong, said: "when the grain and cotton price ratio reaches 1:4.5, farmers will freely choose when planting cotton and planting grain crops, but because of the more artificial labor of cotton seed consumption, they tend to grow grain crops.

Only when the price of grain and cotton reaches 1:5, will farmers tend to grow cotton.

Scramble for storage targets, the cotton market this year, enterprises are also hard to say.

"When picking up seed cotton, a cotton that is not careful and receives Cotton Traders' mixed grade cotton is bad. It can only be processed into four or five grades of cotton, so the loss is much greater."

Yu Baorui said.

Feng Weiqing revealed that compared to last year's average price of 3.8 yuan / kg of seed cotton, the price has risen this year, fluctuating at 4 yuan / Jin, while the seed cotton price with high quality has been as high as 4.35 yuan to 4.4 yuan / Jin.

The rise of costs has naturally reduced the profits of cotton processing plants.

Because of the large scale of Feng Weiqing's processing plant, the annual processing scale is close to 9000 tons, and the expenses of all kinds of expenses are up to 2 million to 3 million.

But for smaller enterprises, an industry insider told our reporter that because of cotton

The overall situation of the industry downturn, making Wucheng county's cotton processing plant from the peak period of more than 300, only more than 40 of the current, and nearly 90% cotton enterprises.

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Dispute "market acquisition"

Since September 10th, market attention has begun to focus on the "20400" - 2012 cotton (three level) temporary purchase and storage price.

The "notice" explained that "in order to stabilize the cotton production, operators and cotton enterprises market expectations, we will protect the interests of cotton farmers."

According to the national cotton market monitoring system released in 2012, the national cotton sowing area survey report, in 2012, whether it is planting area or cotton production is still showing a trend of reduction.

The above report pointed out that compared to 2011, the cotton planting area of this year reached 71 million 787 thousand mu, with a reduction of 7 million 630 thousand mu, accounting for 9.6%.

The three major cotton producing areas in the the Yellow River River Basin, the Yangtze River Basin and the northwest inland area have been reduced to varying degrees.

Among them, the the Yellow River basin reduced the sowing area of cotton by 26 million 788 thousand mu, down 14.15% from the same period last year, the largest reduction, and the smallest reduction in inland Northwest China was 1.39%.

According to the data from China cotton information network, the total output of cotton in China reached 7 million 548 thousand tons in 2011, and the storage capacity was 3 million 130 thousand tons.

This year, the total output is expected to reach 6 million 913 thousand tons, 635 thousand tons less than last year, and the total amount of storage and collection has reached 2733160 tons. The market generally expects that the storage capacity will reach 4 million to 5 million tons.

In this regard, Kong Fang, a cotton analyst at China yen futures, told our correspondent that in the short term, the open purchase of cotton reserves might not be effective.

This is mainly due to cotton growers who do not have the advantage in scale planting. They are particularly sensitive to cotton prices. In addition, only one year cotton can be planted in a year.

"When the opportunity cost of cotton planting is too high, that is, the proceeds can not be compared with that of working and planting grain crops, and there is no special attraction from market price and policy bias. Rational cotton farmers will naturally choose not to grow cotton, so the reduction of planting area is also a normal phenomenon."

Kong Fang said.

As for the current policy of "open market acquisition" issued by the state, Mr Bao said: "the original intention of the government is to consider the safety of the cotton industry. If the government does not take the 20400 yuan / ton market support policy, the price will be reduced to what extent it will be adjusted according to the market price, so that no one can predict it."

More people in the industry believe that if there is no market for storage and storage, it may fall 12000 yuan to 13000 yuan / ton this year. Generally speaking, the price difference between China and the United States should be between 1000 yuan and 2000 yuan / ton.

As for the purchase and storage policy, cotton farmers should be subsidized in the process of planting cotton.

Feng Weiqing, who has a strong market awareness, said that the state raised the price of purchasing and storage, in order to stabilize the psychological expectations of the people.

At the same time, the purchase price of seed cotton is indeed higher than that of last year, but the price that can be accepted by both buyers and sellers still needs the "invisible hand" of the market, and it does not rely solely on the "visible hand".

Fan Ming, director of the market economy Research Institute of Henan University of Economics and Law, believes that the government should take appropriate intervention measures to boost market confidence when the price of cotton is fluctuating at home, and it can be understood to some extent.

"But when China's textile exports are not competitive, when the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is too large and the tonne is 4000 yuan per ton, it means that the cost of cotton planting in China is too high and no longer has comparative advantage."

Fan Ming said.

As for some scholars and analysts, if the government does not adopt the market support policy, it will impact the domestic cotton industry, and the outer cotton monopolize the domestic market, thus seriously affecting the safety of the cotton industry. Fan Ming believes that this is not a rational way of thinking.

"Now we are thinking about what we need at home.

Whether adequate supply can be obtained, rather than whether the suppliers of cotton should come from home or abroad.

Moreover, from the perspective of global cotton supply, not only a few countries are planted, but the diversity of suppliers makes it impossible for cotton production to be monopolized by one or more countries. "

Fan Ming said.