Cotton Market Early Comment: Domestic Cotton Market Continued Steady Downstream To Pick Up

Electronic matching:

In November 5th, the opening of the contracts was mixed, with a wide concussion and a final fall.

Whole country

In the trading market, the trade of cotton and cotton matchmaking traded 11720 tons, an increase of 580 tons over the previous paction, a small increase of 40 tons, and a total purchase of 60980 tons.

Two. Futures market

1. ICE: cotton futures closed slightly higher on Monday and rebounded after a 70 cent break in the market. The market is preparing for a major index fund later this week.

Index cotton contract rose 0.05 cents in December, at 70.40 cents per pound.

2. Zhengzhou:

The main contract is low, and the selling of the head in the short sale and the long liquidation of the short sellers are going down. After that, the lateral alignment is completed, and the daily line forms a low open line. The volume of intra day forward contracts has doubled and the positions have been increasing.

The CF1301 contract concluded 44552 hands on the day, 6398 on the day, and 154076 at the end of the contract. The CF1305 contract day was 120898 hands, the second hand was 20592, and the final position was 179316 hands.

Three. Spot market:

Wei Qiao offer: three level: 19300 429:18500 (temporary suspension)

CC INDEX328:18726 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan.

Others: the average price of grade 527 cotton to plant is 16452 yuan / ton, up 4 yuan.

Basically, rainfall in the North affects the quality of seed cotton, and the acquisition in some parts of the south is faster.

From the 112nd Canton Fair, the number of buyers and sellers declined, and the decline was more than 10% year-on-year. The foreign trade situation is not optimistic. Many enterprises said they had a lot of pressure in the interview.

On the other hand, it is reported that the profit of pure cotton production is not as good as that of using chemical fiber in production. Chemical fiber will replace part of cotton consumption. At the same time, the enthusiasm of imported yarn is still maintained in China.

On the whole, cotton outlook is not optimistic.

On the side of cotton, the oils and fats dropped sharply, and the cottonseed price kept under pressure.

Four, macro environment: as of November 2nd, ICE cotton inventory was 12238 packages.

As of November 4th, cotton harvest rate was 64% in the United States.

The US stock market has edged up and investors are cautious in trading ahead of the US presidential election.

Five, operation suggestions: Zheng cotton CF1301 contract low open shock concussion line, the day before the break, the first five trading days consolidation interval lower track and 60 day average line support, the technical plane trend is broken position pattern; hour graphics low open rebound by the average line suppression decline, the intraday paction downturn formed a narrow concussion, the trading center of gravity shifted downward, short term technology side vulnerable.

Zheng cotton's CF1305 contract opened lower and gained a long line. Before the breakdown of the line, the market adjusted the concussion interval and lowered it to the lowest level last week. The trend confirmed that the support area was broken down, and the short cut pattern was strengthened with the warehouse volume. The hour graph was downwards along the average line, and the latter was sideways and the short term pattern was also bad. However, the short term decline has slowed down, and there is a possibility of repeated short term.

Operation suggestion: wait-and-see is the main idea and short line is empty.

Six, trend test: 1305 fall (neutral), wait and see

Operation: buy January empty May, wait and see