The Drought In Yunnan Province Or Forced The "Sugar Emperor" To Resume &Nbsp; The Listed Sugar Enterprises Will Not Be Affected Temporarily.

Sucrose reduced production by 150 thousand tons

according to

Data from the Yunnan Sugar Association show that as late as February, the area of sugarcane drought was 1 million 251 thousand and 700 mu, accounting for 27.18% of the total sugar cane planting area in the province, of which 150 thousand and 900 acres of sugarcane harvest area, and 1 million 193 thousand and 800 tons of sugarcane damage due to disasters. According to the current sugar production rate, it will produce less than 149 thousand and 200 tons of sugar.

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According to the information disclosed at the 2011 Yunnan sugar conference, the planting area of sugarcane in three major producing areas of Guangxi, Yunnan and Guangdong in the 2011/2012 season is 15 million 800 thousand mu, 4 million 800 thousand mu and 2 million 300 thousand mu respectively, representing 600 thousand mu, 420 thousand mu and 200 thousand mu respectively.

Nanning sugar industry secretaries office told reporters that Guangxi has been raining recently, and the company's sugar cane raw materials all come from the surrounding areas of Nanning, not affected by Yunnan's drought.

"If the sugar cane is too far away, the freight rate is too high to be cost-effective. The sugar cane factories are generally buying nearby, and the government also stipulates that the sugarcane factory does not allow cross regional acquisition of sugarcane."

The above sources revealed.

The secretaries of Guigang stock also stressed that the source of cane sugar cane business was all in Guangxi and concentrated in Guigang City, while the normal season was from November of the previous year to April of this year.

"By the year April, sugar cane will only be planted in the new season, if the drought is likely to have an impact then."

Statistics from the Guangxi sugar Bureau showed that, by the drought in Southwest China in 2010, the total sugar production in Guangxi 2010/2011 was 6 million 728 thousand tons, 390 thousand tons less than that in the previous quarter, and the mixed sugar production rate was 12.15%, which was 0.65 percentage points lower than the previous year.

Sugar prices still have room for growth.

Due to the simultaneous increase in the planting area and the increase in production per unit area in the three major producing areas, the sugar association has previously estimated that the production of 12 million tons of sugar is expected to increase by 1 million 550 thousand tons over the same period.

Statistics from the Yunnan Sugar Association show that as of March 10th, Yunnan's total sugar cane increased to 10 million 31 thousand and 800 tons, and the total sugar output reached 1 million 204 thousand and 100 tons, with an average yield of 12%.

From the above data, we can see that under drought conditions,

CITIC construction investment futures Pan Ying revealed that due to the continuous rain and drought in Guangxi and the decrease in sugar content and drought in Yunnan, the sugar association has raised the national output of 500 thousand tons in February this year. It is estimated that the national output of 2011/12 will be 11 million 500 thousand tons in February, and consumption will be 13 million 500 thousand tons.

However, in 2011, China imported 2 million 920 thousand tons of sugar (an increase of 65% over the same period).

"This has led to a reversal of supply and demand," said Wang Peng, UBS Securities.

The price of sugar dropped to around 6000 yuan per ton in December last year, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures also fell below 6000 yuan / ton.

In 2011, the price of futures sugar was up to 7600 yuan / ton due to insufficient supply.

This price is already lower than the cost of sugar per ton.

Wang Peng pointed out that in November 2011, Guangxi decided that the purchase price of sugar cane in the new season was 500 yuan per ton.

Considering the rising cost of raw materials, fuel and labor, we estimate the total cost of sugar per ton at 6300-6500 yuan according to the processing cost of 400 yuan, the cost of 600 yuan and the tax of 900 yuan, and 900 yuan.

In February 8th, the NDRC announced 1 million tons of sugar temporary storage and storage plan, and the base price was 6550 yuan / ton.

Zhao Jinhou, [2.50 2.46%] of Shenyang Wanguo, judged that when the domestic sugar price was below the linkage price of 7000 yuan / ton, the state would not throw it into the market, and when the sugar price was above 7000 yuan / ton, the country would probably choose to throw it away.

Therefore, judging from the current price, he believed that more than half of the imported sugar was directly imported into the national reserve and temporarily not put into the market.

If the sugar price is below 7000 yuan / ton, the domestic sugar supply will be about 11 million 500 thousand tons in this quarter, and there will still be 2 million tons of supply and demand difference with the demand of 13 million 500 thousand tons.

Therefore, "we believe that sugar prices will still increase after May," he said.