Spring Sowing Soon, Is There Any "Seed" Of Cotton This Year?

In recent years, many cotton growers have consulted the departments concerned whether they want to grow cotton this year. Speculation and rumors about the price of temporary storage and purchase in the new year are endless.

In March 1st, the eight departments of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of agriculture, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of railways, the State General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine, the supply and Marketing Cooperative headquarters and the China Agricultural Development Bank jointly issued the plan for the temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2012 (September 2012 ~2013 August). It was clear that the temporary storage and purchase price of cotton in the 2012 year was 20400 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton over the previous year.

The time is right before the spring sowing of cotton.

Income halved and planting area decreased

From the year before last to the end of last year, cotton prices experienced roller coaster prices.

After the launch of new cotton in 2010, the purchase price climbed from 6 yuan / kilogram to 14 yuan / kg, and the whole cotton market was gradually irrational.

Last year, with the shrinking demand for cotton downstream market and the increase of market supply after the stir frying, the cotton market was plunged from "boiling point" to "freezing point". The price of cotton seed fell all the way, and the price of seed cotton dropped from 32 thousand yuan per ton to 18 thousand yuan.

Such a sharp fluctuation in cotton prices has increased the risk of cotton growers' cotton growing, and with the increase in labor costs and agricultural costs, the income of cotton seeds has declined. Many cotton farmers have the idea of abandoning cotton and growing grain.

In January this year, the Cotton Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the national cotton industry technology system investigated 120 designated counties and 2962 designated farmers in 16 provinces and cities, and released the intention report on cotton planting in 2012.

The report shows that in 2012, the intention of cotton planting in the whole country showed a decreasing trend, a decrease of more than half of that in 2011.

In the 2962 cotton planting households, cotton planting intentions were flat, accounting for 58.4%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and the increase of households accounted for 10.4%, a decrease of 26.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and household accounts for 30.6%, an increase of 21.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

According to the data of the China Cotton Association, the cotton planting area will be reduced by 6.1% in 2012, and the cotton planting area will be reduced to 76 million 284 thousand mu. The intention of another 0.5% sowing area, namely 381 thousand mu, is still waiting and waiting.

From the sub regional perspective, cotton planting intentions in the three cotton producing areas showed a decreasing trend, and cotton planting intention increased only in Sichuan and Hubei.

Industry analysts believe that the total cost of cotton planting in 2011 will rise by 21%, while the seed cotton purchase price will fall.

At present, 30% of the seed cotton is stored in the North China Plain and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the price of these seed cotton will still affect the cotton planting intention.

The middle reaches of the Yangtze River are threatened by water shortage and spring, summer and drought. Cotton fields continue to "go down to the mountains", and cotton planting areas increase in some provinces.

The effect of temporary storage and storage is obvious.

In view of the fluctuation of domestic and foreign cotton market, in 2011, the state issued a temporary purchasing and storage policy at the right time.

By normalizing the measures of temporarily collecting and storing lint in the main producing areas, the policy announced ahead of time that the purchase and storage price should be announced in advance, and the purchase and storage should be opened. The cotton stored and stored can be put in timely when the market needs, so as to stabilize the market expectations of cotton producers, operators and cotton enterprises, protect the interests of cotton farmers and ensure market supply.

From the actual results, the temporary purchase and storage of cotton prices for the bottom, to ensure the smooth operation of the market.

Due to the cooperation with the unlimited purchase and storage conditions, when the annual storage capacity reached 1 million tons in 2011, cotton prices stabilized and slightly retraced. When the storage capacity exceeded 2 million tons, the impact of purchasing and storing on the market supply structure made the market price rise, and resources began to flow to the market. At that time, the state had mastered about 2 million 500 thousand tons of quality resources, and accumulated power for regulation and control, so that the price of the latter market would rise and bear pressure and avoid large fluctuations.

In addition, the purchase and storage protected the interests of cotton producers and ensured the basic supply of resources.

For the 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage price, such a price has a certain distance from the cotton farmers' psychological expectation in the early stage of acquisition, but there is no significant fluctuation in cotton prices during the whole acquisition period, which ensures the basic income of cotton farmers and forms a stable psychological expectation.

At present, the temporary storage and purchase of 2011 is coming to an end. As of the end of February, 2 million 690 thousand tons of cotton were collected and 1 million 550 thousand tons of Xinjiang cotton.

Temporary purchasing and storage has promoted cotton price recovery and smooth operation of the market, effectively protecting the interests of cotton farmers and achieving the expected policy objectives.

On March 1st, the 2012 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan, which was released in March 1st, further improved the execution area and quality standard of the storage and purchase base on the basis of the temporary purchasing and storage policy in 2011.

The scope of collection and storage is moderately expanded. In addition to the original 13 main production areas, other production areas need to be included in the scope of collection and storage.

The quality standard of storage and purchase should be relaxed as appropriate.

In the past, only 4 cotton or more cotton was collected. This year, in order to avoid the difficulty of selling cotton, if the local area suffered most serious natural disasters, the majority of cotton grades could not reach more than 4 grade. After studying by the relevant departments, the quality standard of storage and storage can be relaxed to 5 in the affected areas.

Out of the strange circle of industrial chain relations need to straighten out

Temporary storage and purchase in 2011 effectively curbed cotton prices and protected the interests of farmers.

However, the problem of "four charges" for cotton planting is time-consuming, time-consuming, expensive and expensive. Farmers believe that planting cotton is not cost-effective and lacks confidence.

In 2012, the provisional purchase and storage price of cotton was set at 20400 yuan / ton, which is 600 yuan / ton higher than the previous year. Can it enhance the confidence of cotton farmers?

Analysts believe that this year 19800 yuan / ton basically become the world.

The price of cotton temporary purchase and storage in 2012 reflects the relationship between grain and cotton price ratio of 1: 10, which is conducive to the stability of cotton area.

According to the 2012 central document No.1, the government will continue to do a good job of grain production in 2012, and do everything possible to stabilize the grain sown area.

On this basis, it is necessary to support the construction of production bases in cotton producing areas with superior production areas. The main direction is to optimize the layout, focus on unit production and improve efficiency.

It is easy to see from the country's positioning of grain and cotton production that the formulation and adjustment of the cotton policy will still focus on the target of grain production, mainly from the advantageous areas and unit yields, and there will be no big breakthrough.

Related industry insiders say that cotton, like some agricultural products, has formed a market vicious circle.

The main reason for the collapse of cotton prices last year is that cotton prices rose sharply the year before, and farmers planted with the wind to form the peak of cotton growing.

If we change cotton varieties this year, it is bound to cause a sharp drop in cotton production this year, and supply will be in short supply, and cotton prices will soar.

In order to get out of the vicious circle of "price fluctuation", cotton growers and enterprises expect the country to introduce regulatory policies as early as possible, achieve direct subsidies for cotton seed, safeguard the interests of cotton farmers, further rationalize the relationship between industrial chains, and stabilize the healthy development of cotton industry.

Related agricultural experts also said that in some areas suitable for planting cotton, blindly changing cotton planting grain may not be worth the candle.

The cotton growers who choose to continue to grow cotton should strengthen their confidence and make preparations for spring ploughing. They should mainly make an increase in the yield per unit area, choose seeds carefully and choose a better variety.